저자: KenGriffin · 외국인
요약 보기
Comex 실물 은 재고 감소와 미결제약정 대비 낮은 커버리지, 중앙은행 금 매수 지속(1분기 244톤), 달러 자산 비중 축소 전망을 근거로 금·은의 구조적 강세를 주장. 연준 의장 매파 발언으로 여름 조정이 발생했으나 조정은 강세 추세의 일부로 해석. 232조 핵심광물 조사 유예는 공급망 충격 가능성을 남긴 다섯 번째 신호로 제시. 결론은 조정이 거의 끝났는지에 대해 시청자 의견을 요청하는 형태.
다듬은 글
There is a figure in the Comex warehouse reports right now that most gold and silver market observers are simply silent about. Registered silver , the metal that is actually available for delivery under futures contracts, has shrunk to a fraction of what open interest demands. There are more than five times more paper claims than metal in storage to satisfy them.
And while all attention was focused on the Fed chairman , who for seven months in a row told the markets exactly what they didn't want to hear, four other signals quietly went off in the background. Today I want to break down all five with you , because the fifth one has n't worked yet. And when that happens, it will matter more than anything a central banker says into a microphone.
Let's outline the situation, because in this context everything is important. At the end of January this year, gold reached an all-time high of just above $5,500. Silver peaked near 122. Since then, both metals have gone through a fairly significant correction. Gold has fallen by about 26-28% from that high.
Silver has fallen more than 50% from its peak. Looking at the charts alone, it looks like a bull market that overheated and is now paying the price. If you only listen to the news headlines, you might think the story is over. But if you really look at what the institutions with the longest planning horizons do with their money, a very different picture emerges.
And it is on the gap between what the price does and what the biggest and most experienced buyers do that I want to focus on for the next 20 minutes. So, let's start with signal number one. A change in reserves that no one expected so quickly. For the first time since 1996, gold now accounts for a larger share of global central bank reserves than US Treasury bonds.
27%—gold , 22% —treasury bonds, according to reports from the European Central Bank itself. Think about what this really means. For three decades , the assumption embedded throughout the global financial system has been that when a central bank needs a reliable, liquid, and proven reserve asset, it chooses U.S.
government debt. That assumption has just been shattered. Central banks, which collectively hold more than 36,000 tons of gold , now show on their balance sheets that they trust the metal, which has no counterparty risk and cannot be frozen or sanctioned, more than the debt of the country that still controls the world's reserve currency.
This is not just a loud headline. This is a structural restructuring of the entire monetary system. And it happened before our eyes. But here's the part that should really grab your attention. This shift is irreversible. This is not a reversal due to a strong employment report. This is not a U-turn due to the signing of a ceasefire agreement somewhere .
According to a survey of 76 central banks conducted by the World Gold Council in 2026, 89% of them expect global gold and foreign exchange reserves to continue to grow over the next 12 months. 74% expect the share of dollar assets to continue to decline over the next 5 years. These are people whose profession is managing national wealth.
They don't chase market momentum. They are purposefully reviewing their strategies for the long term. And they did it while the price was correcting, not after it recovered. Which brings me to signal number two. And it is what distinguishes this cycle from all previous gold price corrections in history.
During the 2011–2015 bear market, gold last went through a serious, prolonged decline. Central bank purchases slowed as the price fell. The institutions were nervous. They were waiting for confirmation. This time the opposite happened. In the first quarter of this year alone, central banks purchased 244 tons of gold, 17% more than in the previous quarter.
And this was during the sharpest phase of the correction, with a new Fed chairman, a split in the FOMC, and a dollar that had just surged. Have you noticed that institutions with a 50-year investment horizon chose that very moment, the moment of maximum fear for everyone else , to buy more, not less?
China has continued its series of monthly purchases, which has been going on for the second year . Poland, Kazakhstan, and a growing number of central banks in emerging markets continued to build reserves. This is exactly the kind of divergence that historically says much more about the future direction of an asset than price action on any given Tuesday.
Now let's talk about signal number three, since most retail investors haven't even heard of it, and it happens with silver, not gold. Registered silver inventories on the Comex, that is, the portion of the exchange's inventory that can actually be delivered under a futures contract, have fallen to levels that would have seemed almost unbelievable just a few years ago.
We are talking about a coverage ratio where open interest exceeds registered reserves by about 5.5 times. By the exchange's own historical standards , coverage below 15% is considered a stress zone, and several indicators have balanced just in that zone this year. Is this a trap or something serious?
That's what I can say for sure . This is not a weekly anomaly. This is a continuation of a trend that began over a year ago, when in one 7-day period, over 30 million ounces, roughly a quarter of all recorded volume at the time, were physically removed from Comex storage for delivery. This is not speculative paper trading.
These are real people and real institutions that insist on physically receiving the metal and refuse to settle for cash . And this is happening against the backdrop of a situation with a proposal that has been brewing for years and shows no signs of resolution. The Silver Institute predicts that 2026 will be the sixth consecutive year of structural deficit in the global silver market, meaning that demand has outpaced production for six consecutive years.
Even though overall supply has reached a ten-year high, where is this demand coming from? The production of solar panels, electric vehicles, and the development of data center infrastructure for AI have pushed industrial silver consumption to its highest level ever . Silver is no longer just a monetary metal.
It is becoming an indispensable industrial resource for the technologies that define this decade. And this demand doesn't disappear when the Fed raises rates. Add to this China's export licensing regime, which has effectively divided the global silver market into Western and Eastern prices, where Shanghai consistently trades at a significant premium to COMEX.
When the same metal is priced differently in physical markets in different parts of the world , the market itself tells you where the real metal is and where it isn't . Would you buy silver at that price knowing all this? I want you to think about this question, because now we're going to get to what was actually in the headlines this summer.
What everyone else presents as the main story, when in reality it is only one of five signals. Signal number four is the Federal Reserve, specifically its new chairman. Kevin Walsh was sworn in as the 17th Fed chairman in May, and from the very first meeting in June, he made his intentions clear. He rewrote the entire FOMC statement, reducing it from over 300 words to about 130 , and removed any mention of the possibility of future rate cuts.
He became the first Fed chairman in 14 years to refuse to provide his own forecast for the “ dot chart,” and that in itself is a signal. He doesn't want his personal opinion to become a factor influencing the market. He wants the committee's collective position to speak for itself . And that position was split 9 to 8 in favor of at least one more raise by the end of the year at the June meeting.
The committee left rates at three and a half to three and three-quarters percent. But the accompanying tone was as far from "dovey" as possible. He called this the pursuit of price stability, which is the Fed's "north star." This hawkish stance is the main reason why gold and silver spent the summer in a correction.
It's pretty simple. More hawkish Fed rhetoric means higher rates for a longer period. Higher rates raise real returns, and higher real returns raise the opportunity cost of owning an asset like gold that doesn't pay interest at all. In early July, Bank of America cut its annual gold forecast by 14%, citing this very dynamic, although it kept its long-term target of $6,000 unchanged.
This detail is more important than the headline reduction itself. When an institution cuts its short-term outlook but stands firm on the long-term, it means they see the problem in the rate cycle, not gold itself. And this is where it gets really interesting, as Powell has already shown that the market's initial perception of him was overly simplistic.
In early July at a central bank forum in Portugal. He stated that inflation risks, he said, have decreased in recent weeks, and gold rose more than 2% in one session just because of that comment. He also noted that the Fed's favorite inflation measure has been falling year-on-year for three years in a row.
So who is he: a "hawk" or a pragmatist? I would say—both. And it is this uncertainty that markets are trying to price. An unpredictable Fed chairman, who has openly stated that he does not want to tie his hands with forecasts, creates a special kind of monetary uncertainty. And historically, uncertainty about the course of monetary policy is itself a condition that pushes investors towards gold , an asset whose value does not depend on the forecasts of one person.
There is also a mathematical reality that the hawkish Fed cannot escape, no matter how committed it is to fighting inflation. At the beginning of July, the US national debt was approximately $39.4 trillion. At the current average interest rate on this debt, annual interest costs already exceed $1 trillion, or about $2.9 billion per day.
Every additional rate increase adds a real measurable burden to that debt. This creates a practical limit to how long and how severe the tightening cycle can last before financial stress becomes a major problem. This is a structural argument that remains relevant after every Fed meeting, every forecast, and every hawkish speech .
A government with such a large debt cannot indefinitely afford the rates necessary to completely defeat inflation. And gold has been factoring in these tensions since the 1970s. So, those are four signals. Changing reserves that are collapsing Treasuries, central banks buying during the correction rather than around it, physical pressure growing in the silver market, and the Fed whose hawkish stance is internally contradictory.
Is this rally sustainable? Could this current pullback be just a “ shake-up” before the next phase of growth? The same type of violent correction to clear sentiment that appears in literally every structural " bull" market in history, not at the end of such a market. I believe the evidence increasingly points to just that.
But I promised you a fifth signal, and this is the one that hasn't worked yet. The one you should be watching most closely over the coming weeks. Back in January, the administration initiated a Section 232 national security investigation into the import of processed critical minerals. Everything from rare earth oxides and permanent magnets to lithium, cobalt, and nickel compounds used in the production of batteries, electronics, and defense products.
Unlike the immediate tariffs imposed on certain semiconductor imports that same month, the administration chose a different path here. Negotiations first, and the Secretary of Commerce and the US Trade Representative were given 180 days to report on progress. This deadline fell on July 13. To date, no new tariffs have been imposed on processed critical minerals .
Instead, we have a status update, ongoing negotiations, and a declaration that expressly reserves the right to impose measures at a later date, including the possibility of setting minimum import prices, if those negotiations reach an impasse or do not satisfy the administration. Why is this important for gold and silver?
Because it's not just about critical minerals per se. This relates to the broader position the US has taken on securing supply chains for strategic materials at a time when China controls between 40% and 90% of the world's capacity to process components on which modern industry depends. Remember, silver is at the intersection of monetary metal and critical industrial resource .
Any escalation of trade tensions around strategic materials, any floor price mechanism, any import restriction, any response from Beijing could directly impact the pricing and availability of physical silver, in addition to the shortages and supply issues we have already discussed. The fact that the Article 232 timer was reset, rather than cancelled, means that this fifth signal is still relevant.
This can be resolved quietly through a coordinated framework that will keep the markets calm. Or it could escalate into just the kind of supply chain shock that turns the current physical shortage into something much more devastating. No one, including the people in those negotiating rooms, knows yet which path will be chosen .
I only know one thing: when four structural signals are already flashing and the fifth remains truly unresolved, this is not the time to be overconfident in any direction, be it bullish or bearish. If you're looking for clear, scientifically based analysis of gold and silver instead of market noise, be sure to subscribe, because that's what we're here to do.
Let's summarize, because I believe that the common line of all five signals is more important than any of them individually. Central banks have forever changed their reserve preferences, abandoning Treasury bonds in favor of gold. And they did it during the correction, not after the recovery. This is conviction, not chasing the market.
The silver market is experiencing physical pressure that paper prices have not yet fully reflected. This comes on top of six consecutive years of structural deficits and record industrial demand from solar energy, electric vehicles, and AI infrastructure development. The Federal Reserve, under a chairman who made unpredictability his hallmark, created short-term headwinds through higher real returns.
Even though the fiscal performance of the entire system limits the possibilities for further tightening of monetary policy. And now a trade policy deadline directly related to the critical minerals on which silver depends has been postponed rather than resolved, leaving real uncertainty for the second half of the year.
I am sincerely interested in your opinion on this. Do you think this correction is almost over, or do you expect further declines before the next phase of the bull market begins? Write in the comments. I read every one of them, and some of the most insightful observations on this channel come out during this discussion.
Here's what you should know about corrections during structural bull markets. They are designed to be unpleasant enough to make most participants give up just before the start of a movement that rewards conviction. Gold is still up about 70% from its level at the beginning of last year. Even after this pullback, silver, despite correcting more than twice from its peak, remains in the red by over 100% over the same period.
Corrections are not proof that the thesis was false. Historically, this is the price you pay for being early enough to benefit from what comes next . If you find this analysis useful, do yourself a favor: like this video and share it with those who are wondering if it's time to pay attention to gold and silver.
It sincerely helps the channel continue to do the kind of solid work you just saw. We are observing four signals that have already been confirmed and a fifth that is still in the process of development. When this fifth signal resolves one way or the other, I'll come back here and break down exactly what that means for your position. Until then, stay disciplined, stay informed, and see you in the next video.
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