저자: 빌애크먼 · 외국인
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공매도 공격과 이에 대한 규제 대응을 논하는 영상으로, 특정 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측은 없음. [주제 1: 공매도 발언에 대한 이중 잣대] 한 CEO가 매체에서 회사를 칭찬하면 주목받지 않지만, 공매도 투자자가 같은 매체에서 우려를 제기하면 문제 삼히는 것이 부당하다는 취지. 데이비드 아인혼이 리먼브라더스 재무제표와 자산 평가 방식에 우려를 표명한 사례를 언급. [주제 2: 공매도와 거짓 루머의 구분] 출처 공개 없이 거짓 루머를 퍼뜨려 이익을 얻는 행위는 처벌해야 하지만, 공개된 10-Q 등 공시 자료를 근거로 분석을 말하는 것은 정당하다고 봄. 정당한 사업체는 정확한 분석 한 번에 무너지지 않는다는 주장. [주제 3: 금융기관의 취약성과 시스템 리스크] 리먼브라더스처럼 40배 레버리지를 가진 금융기관은 신뢰에 민감해 소수 공매도 투자자의 지적만으로도 흔들릴 수 있다는 점을 지적. 베어스턴스 사례를 들어 신뢰 기반 금융사의 위험성을 강조. [주제 4: 버블과 공매도 수단의 필요성] 주택 가격 버블은 공매도 수단이 없어 지속되었고, ABX 지수 같은 공매도 수단이 생기자 버블이 꺼졌다는 주장. 모든 참가자가 롱 포지션만 가지면 버블이 반복되므로 공매도 메커니즘 제도화가 필요하다고 봄. [주제 5: 공매도 투자자에 대한 규제 대응 사례] 발언자 본인은 66페이지 백서를 공개하고 포지션을 밝혔으나 엘리엇 스피처 검찰 수사와 SEC 조사를 6개월 이상 받았다고 설명. 2002년 아인혼이 Allied Capital을 공개 비판한 뒤 SEC 조사를 받은 사례와, MBIA 비판 이후 뉴욕주 재무부 압력을 받은 사례를 제시. [주제 6: 투자자의 판단 기준] 정보를 제공하는 사람의 인센티브가 무엇인지 따져 보는 것이 투자자에게 중요하다는 결론.
다듬은 글
to Barons you can get on the rooftop you can pump how great your company is and no one for a second looks at you as scans but if the same person gets on CNBC not the same person or even you know David Einhorn can is mostly along as opposed to a shorter get some CNBC he talks about why he thinks NBC Home Building Company is a great company no one thinks twice but if he gets on he says you know look I have some concerns about Lehman's balance sheet I have some concerns about how they're marking their assets um this is something where the the New York Times writes a scathing article about David Einhorn doing this and I would think the media of all places the media which is the the force for you know digging up the dirt about what's going on in Washington should be very interested and and shorts should be the best source for the media and frankly they should be if if I were I would have given a slightly different answer than Bob's deal if I were treasury secretary I would say instead of meeting with Jim Shane house twice a year I'll leave me with the gym channels once a month uh or at least I would have an open door to the short selling Community if you have concerns about companies the economy balance sheets Etc and we want to hear about them and if it's even if it's just simply you know what here's an email box where you can send your submission we'll take it seriously to you know what the ones that are serious but is there not a sub a substantive danger and a substantive distinction between advocating on the up and advocating on the short side take Lehman Brothers right you can quibble well I'm not quibble but that might be right you can argue with the way they presented the information about their assets the way they're marking them and so on but you also run the risk of putting that company into serious financial crisis which which has all sorts of effects that that you just don't know what's going to and I mean bear Stearns is a perfect example so isn't there a substantive distinction that is just more dangerous to the economy at large I'll only distinguish between different types of Short Selling and disclosure I think if someone spreads rumors that are false right that person should be prosecuted in order to make an investment gain that person should be prosecuted uh if a person goes on CNBC and says based on my analysis of the 10q on page 12 you know they said that we've got six and a half billion of cdos and before they said this was mortgage-backed Securities what's a substantive difference I think that's that's totally acceptable if no legitimate business in my view will go out of business because someone spreads a false rumor about it I think that uh you know if Lehman is so vulnerable to the criticisms of a short seller I think it has to think about whether it's it's capitalized correctly you know can you is there a room in the world for a 40 to 1 levered institution which is so confidence sensitive that a 38 year old short seller can get on CNBC and raise a few concerns and it goes out of business see the dangerous game to play though especially especially in the especially when it comes to financially centered stocks where confidence is the coin of the realm here's what I would say what I would say is why do we have bubbles why do we have financial institutions that with 40 to 1 levered balance sheets we have them because the people who you know because it because you couldn't short single-family home prices rising okay that's why there was a bubble in single family home prices and interestingly only when there was a mechanism to go short housing basically the ABX index did the bubble finally burst and so if the whole country is only long on margin we're going to have bubbles after bubbles okay and systemic risk is created when we have institutions with and I'm not I don't mean to pick on Lehman and I'm not I'm not short Lehman and I'm not long Lehman but we want businesses that can withstand the critique of of any investor right uh that's that's you know whether it's a bank or otherwise so by the Ackerman plan what what are the other means of injecting the short seller ethos or Vibe into the markets are there are there ways we could institutionalize it to create a corrective uh force on look at what happened to me you know I wrote a 66 page white paper it was reviewed by some of the best law firms in the city uh I released it in the most public way I possibly could I disclosed my position it's very important to disclose your position you can't claim to be independent and put out a piece of paper that's where you're not um and then I had to go withstand a six-month investigation by Elliot Spitzer in a several month investigation by the SEC David Einhorn criticized Allied Capital publicly in 2002 and in turn he was investigated by the SEC you know it it's okay you know I've got a thick skin but uh if if this is the regulatory response to someone criticizing a public company particularly an influential one I mean mbia largest guarantor of New York state and city bonds it was a very easy call for them to the treasurer and the call from the treasurer suspenser's office what you want is what you should be thinking about as an investor is what are the incentives of the person giving me the information and
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