저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
요약 보기
Howard Marks는 시장 비효율성이 과거보다 크게 줄었다고 결론짓는다. 과거에는 하이일드 채권(78년), 부실채권(88년), 신흥시장(98년)처럼 사람들이 이해하지 못하거나 데이터가 부족하거나 편견으로 외면하던 자산에서 기회가 있었다. 특히 Moody's 매뉴얼의 B등급 채권 정의처럼 '투자 부적격'이라는 편견이 저가 매수 기회를 만들었다. 오늘날에는 정보가 대중에게 널리 공유되어 구조적 비효율성(정보 부족·편견에서 오는 것)이 거의 사라졌다. 누구나 데이터에 접근하고 어떤 자산이든 투자하려 하므로 '공짜 점심'을 찾기 어렵다. 다만 시장 심리에 따른 순환적 비효율성(주기적 과대·과소평가)은 여전히 발생하며, 그 경계선은 매번 달라 예측이 어렵다. 경쟁자의 주장도 소개된다. 한 경쟁자는 약 4년 전 '공개 증권은 모두 과대평가, 사모 투자는 아니다'라고 말했다. 그러나 대중이 공개시장을 떠나 사모시장에 몰리면 사모 자산이 비싸지고 공개 자산이 싸질 수 있다는 역설도 제기한다. 참고: 본 영상은 특정 종목·지수에 대한 가격 방향 예측이 없어 calls는 비어 있다.
다듬은 글
that line between efficiency and efficiency in today's asset classes and how has it evolved with ETFs well I describe my history which was high yield bonds in 78 distressed death in 88 emerging markets in 98. so the key is that there were people things people would do and things people wouldn't do there were markets that people didn't understand didn't have full data on maybe there wasn't any performance history the markets were not fully they didn't have the infrastructure and the institutions and of course there were biases as I described there were people who said no it's you know Moody's venerable credit rating institution if you took down the 1978 edition of the Moody's manual off your shelf and you looked up the definition of a b-rated bond it said fails to possess the characteristics of a desirable investment in other words you cannot prudently invest in a b-rated bond that's a bias and when if there's an asset and 99 of people will not buy it at any price that it makes sense that the people who will buy it might get a bargain so these things not knowing about it not understanding about it not being willing to buy it not thinking it's it's a professional fiduciary these are the kinds of things that create inefficiency what I call structural inefficiency where are they today almost negligible today you know the believe me 40 50 years ago for those of you who are not practicing this profession then the world was a stupid place nobody knew anything I mean there was all this data and maybe the data existed or maybe it didn't exist but if it existed maybe it was over there maybe you were over there and you had no idea where it was or how to get it or the people who had it wouldn't give it to you and today everybody knows everything you know you're out to dinner with your data your spouse and you have an argument about when a certain movie came out you Google it you find out everybody there's no such thing anymore it's not knowing anything and so if today everybody knows about every asset class has data on it and feels they understand it and feels comfortable with it then where are you going to find structural inefficiencies and the answer is it's tough It's really tough and so in my opinion I wrote a memo in January of 14 called getting lucky by the way all the memos unlike the book The the memos are available free I highly recommend that and they're all available at www.oaktreecapital.com under click on insights and you'll see a thing there about the Chairman's memos or maybe it says memos from Howard marks but um so I wrote this memo called getting lucky and I talked about a process I call efficientization which is if inefficiency is really the to sum it up and oversimplify it inefficiency is the result of ignorance and today there's much less ignorance so markets become more efficient over time and I believe most markets have become more efficient over time and it's very hard to find anything that is uh about which there is ignorance and by the way back in 1978 people would say to me well young man and I was a young man at the time I'm sure you can make a lot of money doing that but it wouldn't be proper it wouldn't be fiduciary now look around this room today anybody will do anything to make a buck so that bias does not exist and that's the bias that gave people like me opportunity 40 years ago and if nobody's if everybody's willing to you know the economist we talk about efficient markets the economy talks about perfect markets economists talk about it and there are certain criteria for perfect markets which are obviously the same and one is knowledge one is objectivity and one is the willingness to substitute so in other words oil and gas will be priced in a standard relationship to each other as long as everybody is willing and able to go from oil to gas and gas to oil they will equilibrate their prices that's what efficient markets do and today people are willing to invest in any market so it's really hard to think of of where you're going to get a free lunch however I do go on in the memo to say that while structural inefficiency is hard to locate from time to time we get cyclical inefficiency which is to say from time to time people lose their objectivity and they value assets too low in which case we can get Bargains if we resist the error of their psychology and sometimes they like assets too much the prices are too high and we can make easy money by shorting them if we can resist the error of the common psychology so I think it's really hard to get find structural inefficiency today from time to time we find cyclical inefficiency and I can't tell you where the dividing line is and it's it's never the same and by the way one of my I'll say competitors came out with a very clever statement about four years ago he said everything with the q-sip is overpriced today so what he was saying is that all public Securities are overpriced because they're too easy to invest in so but but but by implication private Investments are not overpriced um but if everybody hears that and everybody responds and everybody dumps their public Securities and Buys in the private markets then maybe the inflow of capital from the private markets makes the private invest to the private markets makes private Investments too expensive and their desertion of the public market makes those too cheap so
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