저자: MarcosLima · 외국인
요약 보기
Cathie Wood은 비트코인 이번 사이클 하락폭이 50~60%가 아닌 30% 안팎에 그치면 성공으로 본다. 스테이블코인이 신흥국 자산 보호 역할을 하지만 금 강세를 근거로 비트코인 가치가 더 크다고 주장한다. 기관 매수는 아직 초기이며, 미국 정부가 해외에서 비트코인을 매입하면 희소성 가치가 부각될 것이라 본다. 중간선거를 앞둔 트럼프 행정부가 전략 비축 확대를 추진할 수 있고, 법인세 실효세율 하락과 가속상각 혜택이 미국 내 채굴 시설 투자를 유도한다고 설명한다. 다만 특정 시점의 가격 움직임은 보장되지 않는다고 명시한다.
다듬은 글
Kat Wood just presented her thesis on Bitcoin for 2026, and it's not what most people expect. While the crypto community debates whether the cycle has peaked, whether we're heading for another brutal crash, and whether the Trump administration will actually deliver on its promises, Katy is focused on something entirely different.
She sees a configuration forming, a configuration driven by midterm election politics , a maturing asset class, and changes in fiscal policy that almost no one is paying attention to. For those unfamiliar, Katou founded Ark Invest in 2014 and has become one of the most influential voices in disruptive technology investing.
They manage billions in strategies focused on innovation. They wrote their first article about Bitcoin in 2015, when the price was $250, at a time when most of Wall Street dismissed it as a hoax or worse. And that conviction, that initial understanding of Bitcoin, is extremely important. Ark has gone through all the cycles, all the narrative shifts, all the obituaries written for Bitcoin.
They watched the institutions go from being ridiculed to being a source of curiosity and then to being valued. And Kat's perspective on where we are today within the cycle is well worth listening to, especially when most of the market is still stuck in fear mode. Here's Kat explaining where we are in the cycle and why she thinks the real institutional wave hasn't even begun.
We're used to going up and to the right, but being interrupted every four years by a downturn, I think many fear a downturn, we reached 120,000 coinciding with the 10-day flash market. So we're trying to figure out if there's a big balloon out there that hasn't appeared yet and is related to the leverage taken in recent years.
We don't think so, but we don't consider the probability to be zero, right? So that's one thing. The other thing is that we have the issue of its cycle, that's it. And the minimum was around 80,000. We would like to see a test here, and if we can overcome this year or this cycle with a drop of more than 30% instead of 50% or 60%, I think that would be a victory and would be consistent with the lower volatility that Bitcoin has been defined by as time has progressed.
So, yeah, that's the first thing, right? The second one is, you know, I actually said, uh, and Andrew Rose Sorkin picked up on the idea, uh, when I spoke on CNBC Sunday morning, you know? It seems to me that the establishments are assuming a role that we thought Bitcoin would play when we published our white paper in 2015, and that appears to be the case.
We observed a lot of activity, especially in emerging markets focused on stablecoins. They are fulfilling the insurance role that we imagined Bitcoin would play for people in emerging markets, as they try to protect themselves from the confiscation of their wealth, whether in the form of inflation with direct taxation or capital controls, etc.
He rushed through it, but I had to put it in while everything was still the same, while something else was happening. And it was the price of gold, you know , rising so fast and as much as it has in recent years. Therefore, given Bitcoin's role as digital gold, we believe that Bitcoin's value is much greater and likely compensates for what I just discussed regarding stablecoins.
So, I think we're analyzing this, and I think in terms of the future and next year, we know that institutional buying has been very small, just starting. I think if we can get the support of the United States of America, for example, not just by adding confiscated Bitcoin to a strategic reserve, but by buying it abroad...
And we don't know if that's going to happen, but if they did, I have a feeling it would trigger what we all hope for, which is, you know, the real scarcity value with 20 million bitcoins in circulation and only 1 million more to go. I think the party has only just begun in that sense. We remain optimistic.
Two things stand out in this. First, the way she views the fall. If Bitcoin manages to get through this cycle with a correction of around 30 percent instead of the 50-60% crashes we've seen before, that 's not weakness. This is the asset maturing. Volatility squeezing cycle after cycle is exactly what you would expect from something in transition, from a speculative bet to a legitimate macro asset.
Think about what this means for beginners and institutional investors alike. The number one objection to Bitcoin in boardrooms and investment committees has always been volatility. Very wild, very unpredictable, impossible to mold. But if the dips are genuinely getting shallower with each cycle, that objection starts to disappear.
According to her point about institutional adoption, we've had ETFs for over a year. BlackRock's IBIT has become one of the fastest-growing funds in history, and yet Kating's valuation is straightforward. There has been very little institutional support so far; it's only just beginning. That's a striking statement when you think about it.
Tens of billions have flowed into spot ETFs, and in her view, we're still in the early stages of the election. Pensions, endowment funds, sovereign wealth funds—most of them have n't moved yet. They are observing, they are building internal structures, but the actual allocation is still ahead of us.
But here's the part that deserves more attention. She mentioned the narrative surrounding stablecoins and how Andrew Ross rushed through his comments, suggesting that stablecoins were usurping Bitcoin's role. Her answer was gold. The digital gold thesis hasn't weakened this year; it has strengthened.
Gold hitting all-time highs validates the macroeconomic case for real assets. And Bitcoin, as the digital version of this transaction, benefits from the same favorable winds. Central banks are buying gold at record levels. Sovereign balance sheets are quietly reducing the risk of pure dollar exposure.
This is the environment for which Bitcoin was designed. Now, the obvious question becomes: if the setup is so good, why does Bitcoin still seem stagnant? Why does the feeling seem so fragile? Cat has a very good answer to that, and it comes down to understanding what kind of asset Bitcoin really is.
You know about Bitcoin's antifragility, right? You know, it was so obvious, I mean , when we showed it to people they said, look what happened to Silicon Valley and FTI, for example, you know, outside of T, you know? This proves that FTX was opaque, right? Not transparent at all. I didn't find the samband free ones in my knot.
I tried to check and I couldn't find them, we couldn't. So what we've learned in 10 years is that Bitcoin is both a risk as an asset, it's a technology, and it's also a risk outside of an asset. And we know this because it was the first risky asset to emerge. Suddenly, during the regional banking crisis , the off-risk asset was the first to recover.
Sure, one-to-one correlations exist, but which asset started to appreciate? He started by appreciating Bitcoin, because it has both the risk of devaluation and appreciation, counterparty risk, and character risk. So, Jeff, your question was how, given that we have so much discipline regarding the law of rights, are we going to pay more attention to supply shocks in the future?
That's where we make our biggest mistakes. But regarding Bitcoin itself, it turns out we weren't premature. I mean, we didn't arrive too early, as we were monitoring Bitcoin at 250 from the United States. We were in the midst of the European debt crisis, there were still repercussions, and Greece was threatening to leave the European Union.
The European Union, every time a risk arose, Bitcoin went up. During that period, Bitcoin went up, it was incredible. What is that? What is that? So, I think we've learned that risk is turned on and off. He has characteristics of both. When everything falls apart. Bitcoin is the most liquid crypto asset, so it will be affected, but in terms of recovery.
I think repeatedly, you know, we've seen Bitcoin benefit from a crisis, and people are starting to understand its fragile condition. This is a risky personal investment and not simply digital gold stored in a vault. He is both, simultaneously. When markets panic and correlations spike to one, yes, Bitcoin falls along with everything else.
But Kat is pointing to what happens next. Which asset recovers first? During the regional banking crisis in 2023, Silicon Valley, signature and the entire sequence, Bitcoin was the first risk asset to turn around. Why? Because it has no counterparty risk. You don't need permission from a bank, you don't need a functional intermediary.
The network simply works. AR spent over a decade testing this thesis through FTX, through COVID, through multiple 4-year downturns. Her conclusion is: Bitcoin's antifragility is real, it's not marketing, the data supports it. And this dual nature of risk technology with protective characteristics is precisely why institutions are moving slowly toward adoption.
It doesn't fit perfectly in existing boxes, which made it easy to dispose of. But for portfolio construction, an asset with asymmetric upside potential, which also serves as protection against systemic risk, is a very rare asset and a resource rather than a flaw. So, where does this place us within this cycle, within this year of 2026?
Katífica is talking about what is about to happen. It involves Trump, the midterm elections, and the strategic reserve. In 2026, the midterm elections are taking place in the United States of America, and President Trump doesn't want to be a lame duck. So, I have the impression that he's going to work with his cryptocurrency and then ISAR, right, to do some things.
One of them, make sure you get the diminutive governing by means of make sure of that, because you know, at the base level it is where a lot of what we're discussing is going to happen, but there also seems to be resistance to buying Bitcoin for strategic reserves so far. Until now, it has been confiscated.
The original intention was to have 1 million bitcoins. I think they're going to start buying, because it will help Trump in some ways. The midterm elections , part of the reason he won, won, won the presidency, I think it was the crypto community, so medical, for, right? Yes. Jaquia. Another reason, of course, is that his family is totally involved with Bitcoin and other digital assets.
other crypto assets, and they have, you know, we talked about the data before, they kind of collapsed this year. So, and I think he has several reasons for this, but the most important is that he doesn't want to be a lame duck, he wants another productive year or two, and I think he sees cryptocurrency as a path to the future.
Katy, right? Like David Sec said, she needs to be physically neutral to be able to add it. Do you think they'll keep the budget neutral? Neutral budget. The second thing I think we'll see next year is a big surprise in the growth of PDO OB 3 and tax deductions for companies. I like our corporate tax rate in the United States.
The effective tax rate has fallen to 10%. which is the lowest in the world for any developed country. I think that accelerated depreciation is the main reason for installing a factory in the United States of America. Think about Bitcoin. About Bitcoin. If you install a MER factory in the US, you'll have 100% production utilization instead of 30 or 40% over 30 years.
Start building Low by the end of 2028. In the first year of use, you can depreciate 100% of the value, not over 30 to 40 years, thus obtaining large tax refunds. I think we'll see massive growth and the debt will decrease, they'll have more freedom to work. Let's break down what she's actually predicting here.
According to Kat, the Trump administration doesn't want to be irrelevant going into the 2026 midterm elections. The crypto community was a significant part of the coalition that brought him to the presidency. Delivering results to this base matters politically. So far, the Bitcoin strategic reserve includes only confiscated coins.
Senator Lumes' original proposal was to accumulate up to 1 million Bitcoins. Kat believes they started buying in earnest not because of ideology, but because political incentives aligned, and also because of a fiscal aspect that had gone unnoticed. She revealed a specific political detail. The effective corporate tax rate in the United States has fallen to around 10%.
The lowest of any developed nation, and the accelerated depreciation allows you to deduct 100% of a new installation in the year if you start building by the end of 2028. For Bitcoin miners, this is absurd. You're talking about significant investments in CAPEX, capital expenditures that immediately become advantageous in tax terms.
This is not a point of discussion; this is a direct incentive to build infrastructure in the United States. This changes the math regarding new mining facilities, new energy partnerships, and new hardware implementations. Add in the potential for tax exemption for small Bitcoin transactions, and you begin to see the full picture.
This is not a single policy; it is a combination of favorable winds converging at the same time. Here is Catwood's thesis in simple terms. The fear of the 4-year cycle is exaggerated. The falls are compressing, not expanding. Institutional adoption has barely begun, despite what headlines about ETFs suggest; Bitcoin's dual nature, as both risk-on and risk-off, makes it uniquely suitable for portfolio allocation, and the political calendar creates real pressure for policy deliveries for Bitcoin before November 2026.
None of this guarantees price action on any specific timeframe. The markets are confusing, but the structural case she's presenting isn't based on hype or unfounded hope; it's based on political, fiscal, and institutional incentives, all pointing in the same direction. What is your opinion on Katos' prediction that people will start buying Bitcoin in 2026?
Do you think the policy of midterm elections is enough to make this happen? And where do you see Bitcoin volatility trending towards in the coming cycles? We are finally overcoming the drops of more than 70%. Leave your opinion in the comments below. If this analysis helped you understand how the institutional money of large companies and big names is thinking in 2026, don't forget to subscribe to the channel, turn on notifications, and stay tuned for upcoming videos. That was today's content. A big hug to everyone. He said, "Thanks, it's us."
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