Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood on 2026 outlook: Expect strong deflationary pressures

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2025년 ARK 펀드 상위 성과 강조, 4월 관세 충격과 정부 셧다운 때 고확신 종목 매수 대응. 인플레이션은 유가·주택가격·생산성으로 하락 압력이 크며 시장 서프라이즈는 물가 하방에서 나올 것으로 전망. 테슬라는 자동차 하드웨어(마진 15%)에서 로보택시 SaaS형 수익모델로 전환 중이라 주장하며 로보택시 확산은 예상보다 빠를 것으로 봄. 옵티머스는 완전 인간형 구현이 매우 어렵다고 평가. SpaceX 상장은 약 8000억 달러 라운드가 근거이며 1조 달러 기업 가능성 언급.

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01. Joining us right now on the markets, tech, crypto, and her outlook for 2026, Cathie Wood is here, Ark Invest CEO and CIO. Um, 2025 was quite a year, both up and down and back again to some degree. Um, when you when you look at some of the big holdings that you have, whether it be Tesla, and maybe we'll get into crypto and and everything else, where where do you think things are headed into the extent that there were things that you were wrong about, frankly, in 2025?

02. Uh, what was the lesson? Sure. Uh, well, great to see you. Happy New Year, Andrew, uh, Becky, and Joe. Um, so, yes, last year Morningstar in the Morningstar, uh, rankings, uh, I think we had, uh, three of the top five, or four of the top five were Ark, uh, funds top performing. Uh, of course, we had two big corrections.

03. We had the trade, uh, turmoil in in April. That was an amazing buying opportunity. And what we do, typically, is concentrate towards our highest conviction names when we have an opportunity like that. We did that. Same with the, um, same with the, uh, government shutdown. That was, uh, a little a little less, uh, severe.

04. Uh, what did we learn? Well, you know, one of the things that we've learned over the last few years is we can see inflation coming down clearly, but it in the reported numbers, it is stuck. Uh, and I think a lot of people are wondering, "Wait a minute, this market is near, uh, near record high valuations.

05. How can this be? This is a setup for a correction." And, uh, we're looking at other periods in history. If you go if you look into the '90s up to '97, I think it was, and in the 2000s, the early 2000s, we had very strong markets, uh, at as the multiple moved down. Uh, so, what does, uh, last year teach us?

06. We must assume that valuations are going to compress, and we do. We do that, uh, in our bottom-up analysis for every company. Uh, so, but we're pretty excited about the inflation outlook thanks to oil prices, housing prices big time. You see the home builders, KB Home cutting its prices by 7%, uh, and others following, uh, and productivity gains, unit labor costs coming down, uh, dramatically.

07. Uh, I think on a year-over-year basis, they're up 1.2%, but last the last quarter reported, they were actually negative. Uh, so, there are a lot of deflationary pressures, and the last one I'll cite is technology. Uh, our focus is exclusively on technologically enabled innovation, and in each of the five major platforms, robotics, energy storage, uh, artificial intelligence especially, uh, blockchain technology, and multiomic sequencing healthcare, I saw uh, the CEO of Bio, uh, very good.

08. Uh, those are all very deflationary in their impact. So, pretty excited. We think the surprises are going to be on the low side of inflation expectations. Tesla's always been one of your big holdings. Um, you know, in terms of just sales, obviously, things have been challenged, uh, but there's a lot of excitement about autonomy, there's a lot of excitement about, uh, the Optimus robot.

09. What is your what what is your sense of where things stand at Tesla right now? Yes, uh, the EV sales environment has been challenged, but the market is shifting its focus to the robotaxi opportunity. So, we're moving from 15% gross margins in autos, the hardware, to more of a SaaS model, where robotaxis' recurring revenue model is, uh, those margins are more in the '70s and '80s.

10. And I think as analysts understand that that's where Tesla's going, and they start, uh, building in the model for robotaxis, uh, they see, uh, they see a tremendous opportunity. So, it's been interesting to me to see upgrades, even by some auto analysts, uh, now that they're beginning to understand that this is not an auto company.

11. Maybe they're working with their tech analysts and and understanding the stock a bit better. So, when you think though about autonomous, uh, robotaxis, and you think about, um, ro- robots, what what does that look like? And and is there an argument? Look, some of the critics would say, you know, cars aren't cars aren't working the way they're supposed to be working right now in terms of what's happening with the EV market, and and some of these other ambitious efforts are going to take a long time to get to a meaningful escape velocity.

12. Well, we're keeping an eye on how quickly Tesla's footprint is expanding here, and it's expanding a lot faster, I think, than many people expected. Uh, it's interesting to watch Waymo as well. We draw in Texas, uh, we draw the footprint, and and they're competing with each other. Competition is a good thing.

13. Uh, so, I think this is actually going to happen faster than most, uh, analysts think, um, in terms of the proliferation of robotaxis, uh, especially if we get more federal legislation instead of just state by state. On the Optimus robot side, um, there's a lot of excitement in robotics that in the private markets has been a huge space this this past year.

14. Um, we look at an Optimus robot, uh, our chief futurist, Brett, uh, Winton, working with Sam and Daniel, have, um, concluded that an Optimus robot is going to be 200,000 times more difficult to get working correctly relative to, uh, relative to a robotaxi. So, you'll have you'll have waves of Optimus, uh, improving with time, but full human is is going to be quite difficult.

15. Nonetheless, uh, the the robots that we're seeing, you know, pick and pack and and and lifting things, they're they're starting to make waves. Should we talk about Bitcoin? Or we can talk about SpaceX. I mean, that's going to probably go public this year. What do you think it's going to go public at?

16. Well, this next round is about $800 billion, uh, so, a near doubling. Um, and we wouldn't be surprised to see it, uh, become the first trillion-dollar company. And, uh, especially now that there's a new opportunity, data centers in space, uh, to avoid, uh, all of the not-in-my-backyard, uh, obstacles that, uh, Tesla and others are facing. So, um, we're starting to do the modeling work on that.