저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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2년 연속 강세 후 2025년 S&P500 10% 이상 조정 가능성이 높아졌다고 봄. AI·빅테크 낙관이 과도하며 Mag7은 PER 30~35배, 나머지 시장은 18~20배로 격차가 큼. 다만 장기적으로는 강세장 관점을 유지하고 매도는 권하지 않음. 1월경 Mag7 반등 후 되돌림 가능성, AI 이익 실현 속도에 대한 실망 리스크 언급.
다듬은 글
in this video Professor Jeremy seagull addresses the heightened likelihood of a market correction in 2025 following two vigorous years of the stock market growth he points to historical patterns where two consecutive years of significant gains often proceed Market downturns seagull articulates a cautious perspective indicating an increased probability of at least a 10% drop in S&P 500 fueled by over optimistic expectations of sustained profits from narratives around Ai and big Tech uh you know one thing is true about the markets as an old saying is that whenever you everybody expects something to happen to the market in the future it's not going to happen I everyone expected that you know we're going to have the Santa Claus rally everyone said oh yeah it always Rises between Christmas and New Year's and I warned uh a few weeks ago I said yeah when everyone says that they buy up before then and then when it comes there's disappointment and you know I think maybe we're seeing a little bit of that right now yeah right now okay but does that apply to 2025 is there an expectation perhaps that we're going to have another strong year and therefore going to be disappointed I think there might be some disappointment you know as time has gone on I think the probability of a correction next year you know which is defined as a a 10% drop uh in the S&P is getting higher I'm not saying it's a a sure thing nothing is a sure thing in the market uh um but uh I the major forces to propel things upward I think have already been built in uh we still have you know we talk about 22 times earnings on on uh on 16 177% gains of earnings which is you know you know also far higher than historical so I I see a little bit more risk on the downside and I'm you know I'm a I'm a bull on the market I'm longterm I'm not saying you know sell but I you know I see more risks uh not not as optimistic as Tom Lee was right at the end of squawkbox and I admire him dramatically but I I think that uh I think we have challenges next year because of all the optimism that has been built in this year what does that mean Professor seagull uh for the long-standing reign of big tech one would say those have been some key forces over the last few years that have pushed the broader S&P 500 upward yeah and you know that I mean we do still have a bifurcated Market in the sense that uh you know that the max 7 being 30% MA 7 being 30 to 35 times earnings uh the rest of the market 18 to 20 uh which is much more reasonable you know I I think yeah I think 2025 could be that switch around now of course I many of us thought that that would happen 2024 that then The Narrative of AI is still very very strong the spending is there it's going to bring about all these gains now the amount of actual gains it's bringing about is is modest it it isn't you know it hasn't been implemented uh completely at so many firms the hope is there um and and I think ultimately it will prove to be very beneficial but there is room for disappointment at the speed of implementation and how much that act uh will affect profits now will it happen in 2025 or not uh listen history tells us that narratives go on much longer they need to be punched down with many failures before they finally de um and uh uh you know at this particular point that that trend is in but you know I'm I'm looking at I'm looking at January thinking hey that might be a reversal that big buildup that uh you know that might talked about that we got from Thanksgiving up until a week ago uh in the mag 7 uh we really might find that uh you know revert at least down to the trend line that was established uh you know in September and October uh so we might see a reversal earlier and then we have the challenges that Mike and everyone has been talking about what is going to happen to ter Poli what's going to happen with the immigration policy uh Etc and so on I mean there's a lot of positive aspects we also have to remember remember in terms of uh you know we we see the Republicans did capture the house but by one or two votes uh some of the things are not going to come maybe as easily as everyone thought on November 5th with the election um uh I do think uh you know they're going to work on the taxes and get that set in the as as a as a as an important priority certainly in in the first two years of uh the Trump Administration
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