저자: JeffreyGundlach/진행자미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
2020년 4월 27일 선물 데이트레이딩 일일 시황 영상으로, S&P500/나스닥 갭상승 후 완만한 상승세를 전하며 전략 기반 진입·청산과 리스크 관리를 강조함. 시장 흐름: 여러 지수에서 연속 4회 갭상승이 나타났고, 갭이 전일 고가를 넘어선 경우가 있어 추격 매수가 쉽지 않다고 설명. 나스닥은 당일 하락 전환해 -6.25포인트 기록, S&P는 +11.75 상승. 시장은 천천히 우상향하며 변동성(VIX)이 하락 중. 제프리 건들락 인터뷰 인용: S&P500 2863 부근 숏 포지션을 제시하며 단기 조정 가능성을 언급. 금융위기 이후 창출된 일자리가 팬데믹 이후 모두 사라졌다는 점을 지적하며 실물경기와 시장 괴리를 경계함. 트레이딩 성과: 여러 전략에서 +11.75, +25, +4.25, -6.25 등 손익을 보고. 전반적 진행 중 수익 포지션 다수 언급. 원유·금 등 선물 증거금: 증권사 기준 데이트레이딩 증거금이 100%→50%→25%로 낮아짐. 원유는 당일 데이트레이딩 불가(최근월물 거래 제한), 금은 변동성 높은 상태. 증거금 인하를 자본 효율화 도구로 설명하되 과도한 레버리지 남용을 경고. 리스크: 연준 부양책에 의존한 상승이 지속 가능한지 의문 제기, 호재 발표 시 차익실현 매물 출현 가능성 언급. 단기 트레이딩과 장기 펀더멘털을 구분해 적용. 미국 금리·환율·개별 종목에 대한 명시적 방향 예측은 발언되지 않음.
다듬은 글
another gap up today slow grind higher you see the stocks stock index features have had four gap ups in a row on some of the indexes I know the es gap up here gap up there gap up there these gaps were above the previous day's close but not above the previous day's high this gap was a was actually above the previous day's high and so is today's gap above the previous day's high not easy to to step in and buy this and so when you see these gap ups having a strategy that can do that knowing your risk and when to enter is a good approach Cobra three capture the trade plus 725 on evening ESP by the way interesting interview today with Jeffrey gun lock the bond King the new bond King short the SP at 2863 and so he anticipates potential the potential for a pullback to take out these loaves stating that since the financial crisis all the jobs that were created since the financial crisis have been wiped out since the pandemic started so that's interesting you're not the same set of job adjust the numbers and so we're short term traders any given day can be up or down regardless of how bullish or bearish the market is coming through evening Nasdaq underperform today it's been outperforming and now it's underperform today - 625 on the day adaptive moving average even the S&P a plus 11 75 some really nice trades as this strategy is bouncing back let's take a look at where it was we talked about it when it was in the drawdown and so it was in this had this massive move in March and went to this drawdown slowly work its way higher doesn't mean it's going to go straight up it could still wiggle down before it goes a higher but that is where we are as of today plus 1175 on that trade quick dump at the end of the day we see these these fast moves at 10 minutes for the clothes that's the order of balances that come out and so the stock market is closed now in seven minutes until the futures closed de session actually there'll be another it'll be a 15-minute wait and there'll be another 30 minutes of trading after that but night trader hit his profit target slow grinding upward day and night trader moving higher just this just feels it feels false these rallies feel false to me they're just so so slow and you know leave the Fed back in the market so that's why we're familiar with the Fed and what they do during QE and the market just grinds higher and grind higher and volatility drops and drop some drops and you just it approaches a fixed income investment almost feels like the market could make new highs if the economy actually went into a great depression because there's such a big disconnect between what the current economy is in the Fed stimulus that was done and how long it will take effect and if that will actually have a long-term effect on the economy so grinding higher in the stock market Asia for even ESP did a great job of getting in on this trade last night I love these trades where the market pulls back we get a counter trend move and then we get in hit that fifteen hundred dollar profit target tick count trend in queue a little bit off today the Nasdaq gapped up and then just him and hauled all day and when the Bulls really have control you'll see that they'll put the gap of the marketer go up overnight and then oftentimes it can chop during the day so that's what we see here the last trade was a winner - 1300 on that trade all strategy access three plus twenty five grains day trader 3-1 1250 all strategy access for Cobra crude short have advised not to trade crude oil you can't trade the gym contract at TradeStation you could try the July and but plus 425 on that and cover gold - 625 and those are the trades on the day the margins have gone down if you're at TradeStation they'll notice that this has been updated 25% day trade margins are back it was 100% of day trade then it was 50 percent now it's 25 percent as the VIX drops and so we'll see if that turns out to be a contrarian indicator and if volatility picks up after the Jeffrey gun lock call so you see 25 percent and then of course crude oil crude oil volatility is very high currency currency margins are fairly low the day trade margin is 50 percent gold 50 percent still fairly high palladium is very high and the gold is you know gold has been very volatile lately big daily ranges so you have a bigger margin in gold and then crude oil you know no day trade margin can't trade the front month and so this is where we are in the energy so overall the margins have dropped now at TradeStation so it's easier to trade with less capital when you do that you want to monitor your trades use margin to limit the amount of capital that you have to allocate to your features account to get something done not as an abuse to trade more contracts than what you would allocate the amount of capital that you want to allocate to your Futures Trading it's just a tool to minimize your deposit so that your other capital could be working on something else at the same time and so don't abuse the margins and with high margins it's more difficult but when margins drop again just keep that in mind I know that if you know the past of Seng traders where the e-mini S&P is a thousand dollar day trade margin and with the $10,000 account will step in and trade you know eight to ten contracts right away and you know can lose a lot or make a lot real quick like that so be careful with your margins I respect the risk and once again let's take a look at the ESPY like I said earlier different gun lock shorted at 2863 SMPS and you know there's a lot of things to consider in the market environment one of the things that I see here fed stimulus Spence t---minus enters the market volatility drops in the market goes up this is historically what we're used to since 2009 I think they said the best best month 1991 all fed stimulus down here and so you have to you have to wonder though at some point if that fed stimulus will lose its effect because you can't go on forever it's a bit of a free lunch it's a bit of something for nothing and the real economy does not match and so that's what Jeffrey gun luck was talking about it kid it roll over here 26 million unemployed and all the job gains that were achieved after the financial crisis since the financial crisis has been you know all these all these jobs have been lost unfortunately for those who are suffering right now from that and so we have to it we have to trade what is true what is real and so day traders short-term traders we trade we trade the short term moves we consider the longer term fundamentals in our analysis and revalidate what we're doing at all times and so today was a gap up in continuation and the market captured that and so that's what we did that's what we stayed with and with it with the with the also the mindset that you know this could roll over because I think this could roll over doesn't mean that I wouldn't take a long trade on the short term so also what one thing to consider is that the market can go up it can go up on bad news and so we've got this market going up all on fed stimulus but also there's no certainty there's no real good news and if if we go to get to the point where the market continues to climb and we get to the point where we start to get a cycle of good news you know everyone's back to work and economic numbers come in and showing more bullish news then the market can take the one those that went long and here and here to be taking profits and so it's that market that this discounting mechanism the market goes up on bad news we get the good news and the market takes profits and so those are some of the reasons so some of the thoughts I have on the long-term nature of the market those don't affect our short-term trades but we take those into consideration when thinking about the market and also thinking about new trades of different ways to trade you
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