저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
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결론: 중앙은행의 유동성 지원은 시장 붕괴는 막지만 실물경제 회복은 보장하지 못하며, 단기적으로는 미국이 세계보다 낫다는 입장. 경제 재개와 실적: 이번 주·다음 주 실적 발표는 대체로 부정적일 것으로 예상되나, 시장은 미래를 보고 있고 재개 방식(상향식·하향식)과 중앙은행·재정 정책 세 가지 쟁점에 반응 중. 기업·소비자 반응은 불확실하며 2차 감염 여부가 가장 큰 변수. 중앙은행: 일본은행이 이미 많이 했고 ECB는 추가 조치 예상, 연준은 추가 정책보다 기존 조치 재확인 수준일 것. 투자등급·하이일드 시장을 다시 열어 성과로 평가. 연준풋(Fed put)이 주식시장까지 암묵적으로 받치는지에 대해서는 명시적으로 말하지 않을 것이나 도덕적 해이 우려 존재. 달러·금리·금: 달러는 기축통화 지위로 단기 약세 가능성이 낮다고 봄. 향후 1~2년 달러 약세와 금리 상승은 크지 않을 것으로 전망. 현대통화이론(MMT)이 단기적으로 재정 확대를 뒷받침하지만 장기 리스크 있음. 금은 복잡한 자산으로 가격 예측이 매우 어렵고, 현재 수준이 적정한지 단정하지 않음. 비트코인은 내재가치를 평가하기 어렵다고 언급. 리스크: 중앙은행 개입의 도덕적 해이, 2차 감염, 재정적자 확대에 따른 장기 금리·물가 리스크. 출연자 전망: 단기 미국 자산 선호, 달러 강세 기조 유지, 금리 급등 없음.
다듬은 글
let's get Mohammad is is with us he had an article yesterday that you'd probably be really interested in see all about the said and worrying about you know moral hazard I don't know how we how do we avoid moral hazard when we're all in any way Mohamed the you I also want you to since it's a big earnings week you said earnings will matter and we just had a discussion with Anastacio about whether it's really a you know is it a macro call on earnings or do you look specifically at the details of each report because we basically they're gonna be painted with the same brush mostly crappy so but whatever you want to opine on to start with Mohammed those are some of the companies that are reporting if you have a monitor we're gonna get a lot of data but none of it's gonna be very positive probably so Joel let's put it all together none of the data is gonna be positive to use Becky's term is gonna be gloomy but that's not the point right now the point is that the markets are bridging to the future and they're having to deal with the three issues but you've been talking about when are we going to reopen fully how are we going to reopen and can central banks in particular and to a lesser extent fiscal agency but four markets is about central bank bridges to that point those are the three things that are in play we're gonna get a ton of information this week and next week on them and will allow us to make a much better assessment so what tell me are they going to be able to do that what what does it look like the so it looks at me messy and and you're talking about the how there's two houses the top down how and look at us in the US we have three groups of states we have states that are adhering to the guidelines and we opening in lines with the guidelines there are states that are going ahead of the guidelines and are the states that are going slower than the guidelines so we have a natural experiment that's the top down the bottom up is the discussion you've had it's not clear how businesses and consumers are gonna respond all I can tell you is this is wonderful we can get lots of data we can be able to form a better judgment about what's ahead and we're all learning we're learning here we're learning in Europe and we're gonna learn more and there's one thing we don't know which is will there be a second round of the infection hopefully there will not be and we can run this experiment and get a lot of clarity and that will give us a lot of guidance as to where valuations should be do you think that the Fed sits around over the weekend thinking well we've done all this how's it going or what more are we gonna be ready to do you they're probably talking about what more they're ready to do what more can they do at this point Muhammad so I think the Bank of Japan already did a lot this morning the ECB is gonna do more I don't think the Fed does more I think this is what we get from the Fed and this is what we don't get what we get from the Fed is reassurance that that they're ready to do more in what they've already done and that they should draw comfort that they've calmed the markets down and they've reopened not only the investment-grade market wide open for companies but the high-yield market as well those are achievements what they won't talk about but I hope they do behind closed door but I won't talk about publicly is what do they do with the Fed put that is now firmly in the stock market people widely think if the Fed went all the way down to high-yield why not one step further into stocks do they keep quiet and allow that that implicit said put support the stock market or do they say something to stop more moral hazard I think they're gonna avoid this issue but this is important remember central banks are great at winning the war against a market meltdown they are not good about securing the economic piece of high growth and that transition is really in this time around as it was and we blew it in 2008 and nine we've heard people say not to worry the dollar is the reserve currency of the world we can we can basically the Fed an infinite capacity to step up and and help if everybody's printing maybe the dollar doesn't weaken because of beggar-thy-neighbor were all but it's a race to the bottom will there come a time where the dollar weakens and and interest rates you know where it becomes prohibitively expensive to service everything that we floated at this point in gold is where it was seven eight years ago I know it's had a nice run recently but with the with the size of the fiscal deficits around the globe I don't know why it's not much higher if it were really headed there why not so first row I've been saying for four years now don't fade the dollar don't fade US markets visibie the rest of the world the US does better in most state of the world except one when the global economy picks up in a strong way that's not gonna happen so I'm with you we're not gonna see dollar weakness significant in the next year or two we're not gonna see interest rates go up the the MMT cloud by the way modern monetary theory we are having it all they can't believe that they did what they want is playing out and they're going to be proven right in the short term we will print a ton of money we will fund the government as if there's no limit and we're not gonna pay anything in terms of the dollar weakness high interest rates or inflation so over the short term I think we do better than the rest of the world you know gold is a really complicated asset price and guessing it is very very hard I can see there will be continued support for it whether it's where it should be or not Joe I don't venture in your gold I don't eventually a Bitcoin you know there are there's no inherent value that you can price off that easily you
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