Resist the urge to discount earnings season during the crisis: Allianz's Mohamed El-Erian

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결론: 이번 실적시즌을 무시하지 말고 기업별 재무 건전성을 봐야 하며, 위기 이후 시장은 종목을 더 차별화할 것이다. 실적시즌의 가치: 실적 자료에는 많은 정보가 있으며 현금 소진, 자금 조달 접근성, 재무제표 강도가 핵심이다. 위기를 잘 헤쳐 나온 기업이 이후 경쟁 우위를 가진다. 은행: 은행은 이번에는 문제가 아닌 해결책의 일부이나, 신용 리스크를 더 떠안아야 하는 딜레마가 있다. 재택 재개 과정과 추가 팬데믹 여부가 불확실해 신용 리스크 판단이 어렵다. 기업 대응: 기업들은 가능한 모든 원천으로 현금을 최대한 확보하고 있다. 현금 고갈이 최대 리스크이며, 이 경우 희석이나 구조조정, 파산까지 갈 수 있다. 시장 타임라인: 시장이 얼마나 긴 회복을 가격에 반영하는지 불분명하다. 주식시장은 다른 자산에 비해 한 번에 판단하기 어렵고, 연준의 백스톱에 대한 시장의 신뢰가 이를 좌우한다. 재개방 리스크: 미국의 재개방은 완벽하지 않으며 향후 몇 주간 감염 확산과 경제 반응에 대한 데이터를 얻는 '자연 실험'이 될 것이다. 험난한 출발이 예상되나 학습·수정을 통해 나아갈 수 있다. 정부 지원 방식: 중소기업 우선 지원 등 정책이 바뀌었으며, 공개기업 주주에게 손실이 전가될 수 있다. 정부 지원을 받으면 정부가 지분을 가져갈 수 있고, 공개시장 자금 조달은 기존 주주를 희석시킨다. 공개시장 접근성: 연준 덕분에 투자등급·하이일드 채권 시장이 열려 있고 낮은 금리로 자금을 조달할 수 있다. 그러나 앞으로 부채가 크게 늘고 공공과 민간의 얽힘이 심해질 것이다. 중장기 전망: 공급망 재편, 낮은 생산성, 소비 절약으로 수요 둔화가 예상되며 고성장·고부채 상태를 피하는 정책이 필요하다. 2008~09년에는 전쟁(위기)에서는 이겼으나 평화(고성장 경로)는 놓쳤다고 평가한다.

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01. we were talking to Peter Krause in the last hour just trying to understand what what can be taken away from these earnings reports and what can't be and what your at what numbers we actually should be focused on if any at all so good morning Andrew look I would resist the inclination of saying that this earnings season doesn't matter we should just look through it this earnings season is providing us a ton of information and that's important in a market that's differentiating more between individual names so there's a lot of focus on balance sheet strength there's a lot of focus on cash burn on access to markets that's important because it tells you how well companies will navigate this very difficult period because the better they navigated the more they emerge to a less competitive environment in which they can respond really quickly to so there's lots of data in here and I think what you're seeing is people are looking very seriously at this data and differentiating even more among names that are well positioned for the journey and well positions for the destination and so you look at the banks I you know Peter was talking about the banks as in terms of the reserves we're all trying to figure out sort of what are the numbers to focus on that's what I'm still focused on because I think we just don't know what what you said we learned a lot this week what did we learn so we learned for example that balance sheets really matter because the biggest risk out there for investors is a cash crunch for a company because things get really hairy then you get diluted or even worse you may end up getting restructured or bet or their company may go bankrupt so if you learned a lot under banks the major question out on the banks andrew is how much credit risk are they gonna take going forward and they are torn and understandably so on the one hand this time around they are part of the solution they're not the problem and they want to be part of the solution but on the other hand being part of solution means taking on more credit risk and taking on more credit risk in an environment where we're not quite sure how the restart is going to go we're not quite sure we're gonna have another round of the pandemic or not so there's a lot of uncertainty about credit risk and and that's the dilemma that different banks have meanwhile companies are doing what I would do ways as much cash as you can from every source that you can right now you know when you look at look at where we are one of the things that we are all trying to figure out and we asked again Peter cross the same question what what you think the market is saying the time line is now what you think the time line may be Mohamed I'm curious well I'm curious actually both both opinions the reason I ask is we have rich lesser on from BCG who's spending a lot of time with corporations inside boardrooms and talking to people in the in the corner office if you will and his timeline was much longer I think then than anybody's in the market currently so it's hard to tell what the market thinks that timeline is because there are two factors going on here one is the extent to which the market is factoring in the other side of the U but the other as important Andrew if not more important is the comfort that the market has in the Fed being there as a backstop so if you look at different markets it's actually very difficult to figure out which is which especially when you get to the equity market it's a little bit easier up the up the capital structure but when you go all the way down to the equity market these two factors are playing out and it's very hard in terms of what's ahead Andrew I think the key issue is that we are we opening and we are not we opening in a perfect way we're not even following the guidelines of the white house we could complain about it or the other side is taken as a natural experiment we're gonna learn a ton in the next few weeks about how does the infection actually spread and that's very important we're going to learn about how people react are they gonna we engage in the economy or not how do companies react in the differential speed economy and the key issue I think for us but especially for the federal government is to collect this data because this data is gonna inform and influence what we do next we may have a rocky start but the important thing is to learn modify course correct and then go forward in a better healthier and more economically viable way hey Mohammed I'm I'm just thinking through how the money that Washington is granting these days how those packages have changed pretty dramatically and how public perception has changed you you have Ruth's Chris who's giving back the twenty million dollars today you had Shake Shack giving back the money with the understanding that okay we should reserve this money for small businesses that don't have access to the public markets these are the places that need this money and that's different than what we thought this plan was going to be three or four weeks ago we thought that this was money for everybody because nobody had done anything wrong this wasn't moral hazard so we were going to kind of say okay we'll protect everybody with taxpayer dollars there aren't enough taxpayer dollars to go around to do that which means if the public companies that do have access to the public markets are left to their own devices to make sure they raise more money I'm not sure the market is factored in the idea that all of those losses are going to come from the shareholders the idea being you're from the public markets your shareholders you have to be ready for that is the market reflecting that to this point the idea that if you do take money from the government if you're one of the airlines are Boeing or something you're going to be taking it and giving them a pretty substantial stake in the company at that point and if you don't need the money you're if you don't need a bailout from them if you're gonna be getting more money from the public markets that's going to dilute the existing shareholders how does that kind of work its way out so there's two issues here Becky if I may one is I think it's absolutely right to focus on small business markets are open capital markets are open companies are raising a ton of bond financing not only does an investment grade but in high-yield and we we can thank the Fed for that the Fed has reopened access to the markets whether it should have done it the way it has we could have a long discussion but the reality is if you're a public market the markets are open for you and I open for you at relatively low year absolute yields on the other side is where we're gonna come out and and that relates to the robust discussion that Andrew and Joe had there are certain realities we're gonna come out with a lot more debt we come out with a complete entanglement of the public sector in the private sector these decisions of bailouts are not being made according to principles they're being made in a very ad hoc fashion so it's gonna be a spaghetti bowl of relationship that you're gonna have to unwind in a market-based system we're gonna come out with companies rewiring their supply chains put all that together it's lower productivity on on the land side we're gonna come out with people perhaps more more frugal spending less so you have sluggish demand as well as lower productivity we've gotta embrace that this is out there and let's do things now that lower the probability that we end up with low growth and high debt we can do things now Becky as we formulate policy that address these longer-term issue this is not just about relief this is also about what comes thereafter the mistake we made in 2008 and 9 was that we won the war against the depression which was great but we lost the peace we did not secure a piece of high growth and we ended up as you all discussed in a paradigm that basically didn't prepare us for the next shock now we know these shocks are really scary let's learn from that and secure the peace as well winning as well as winning the war you