저자: WarrenBuffett&CharlieMunger · 외국인
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결론: 시장은 대체로 효율적이지만 효율적 시장가설(EMH)을 그대로 믿는 것은 큰 실수이며, 그 이론은 이미 상당 부분 신뢰를 잃었다. 질문 배경: 마리 카스크가 효율적 시장가설과 가치투자자 간 논쟁이 화해될 수 있는지, 그리고 두 사람의 후계자들도 예외적 존재인지 물었다. 버핏의 시장 평가: 시장은 전반적으로 꽤 효율적이며, 자산군 간 가격 책정과 개별 기업 평가 측면에서 대체로 효율적이다. 다만 이것만으로 EMH에 기반한 투자 접근이나 그 파생 이론들을 정당화하기는 부족하다. 교육 측면의 문제: 20~30년 전 EMH를 믿고 투자 인생을 시작했다면 지구가 평평하다고 배운 것과 같은 치명적 실수였을 것이다. EMH는 한때 학계에서 사실상 필수 신념이었고, 이를 기반으로 한 수학 이론 체계 전체가 세워져 있었다. 신뢰 하락: 지난 10~20년간 EMH는 상당히 크게 신뢰를 잃었다. 과거처럼 강연에서 그렇게 언급되지 않으며, 일부 대학(플로리다대, 미주리대)은 기업 가치평가 과목을 도입하고 있다. 다만 학계 기득권이 신념을 버리기는 어렵다. 멍거의 견해: 막스 플랑크를 인용해 구세대가 사라져야 새로운 생각이 자리 잡는다고 했다. 하드 형태의 EMH 이론가들은 민망한 존재이며 곧 사라질 것이고, '대체로 효율적(roughly efficient)'이라고 보는 사람들이 옳고 그 관점은 오래 유지될 것이라 했다. 다만 '대략 효율적'이라는 생각은 학계에서 이론을 구축하는 데 아무 도움이 되지 않는다. 투자의 본질: 투자는 기업 가치를 평가하는 일이며, 가치보다 싸게 팔리면 사는 것이다. 미국 내에서 기업 가치평가 방법을 가르치는 과목은 거의 찾기 어렵고, 베타 계산 같은 과목은 많다. 벤 그레이엄이 컬럼비아에서 가르친 것은 좋은 사례다. 교육의 문제: 평균적인 금융 박사에게 기업 가치를 평가해 보라고 하면 어려움을 겪는다. 가치를 평가하지 못하면 투자도 못 하는데, 그럼에도 '시장이 이미 모든 것을 완벽히 반영한다'고 가르치는 것이 쉬워서 중요한 주제가 가르쳐지지 않는다. 출연자 전망: 시장이 비효율적으로 가격 책정된 증권을 찾아보라고 권했으며, 현재는 그런 증권을 찾기가 어렵다고 언급했다. 특정 대상 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
hello I'm Marie casks from Markham Ontario first off mr. Buffett mr. Munger I'd like to thank you for being so generous with your time every year at these meetings mr. Buffett many in the academic community call you lucky or a statistical outlier mr. Munger I'm not sure what they call you but you're free to speculate on what they call him I know you don't like to forecast the equity markets but maybe you would dare to forecast the evolution of the debate between proponents of the efficient market theory and value investors do you think there will ever be a reconciliation and I'm talking especially about what's taught at the business schools and as an addendum are your designated successors are the outliers as well well we like to think they are and then it may be more outliers than we are the the market is generally and you know I to me it's almost self-evident if you've been around markets for any length of time that the market in is generally fairly efficient it's fairly efficient as pricing between asset classes it's fairly efficient in terms of evaluating specific businesses but being fairly efficient does not make does not suffice to support an efficient market theory approach to investing or to all of shoots that have come off of that in the academic world so if you'd believed in efficient market theory and been taught that an adapted adopted it for your own twenty or thirty years ago or ten years ago I think it probably hit its peak about twenty years ago you know it would have been a terrible terrible mistake it would have been like learning the earth is flat at it just you would have had you know you'd have had the wrong start in life now it became terribly popular in the academic world it almost became required belief in order to hold a position it was what was taught in all the advanced courses and and a mathematical theory that involved other other investment questions was built around it so that if you went to the center of it and destroyed that part of it it it really meant that people who'd spent years and years and years getting PhDs found their whole world crashing around them I would say that it's I would I would say that it's been discredited in a fairly significant way over the last decade or two I mean you don't hear people talking the same way about it as you did fifteen or twenty years ago but the market generally is fairly efficient in most ways I mean it is hard to find it's hard to find securities that are in efficiently priced there are times when it's relatively easy but right now for example it's difficult there I don't know exactly how much its Holy Writ still in business schools I certainly get the impression as I go around talking to business schools that it is far less regarded regarded as as you know sort of unquestioned dogma that a like it was fifteen or twenty years ago the University of Florida now has some of courses in valuing businesses University of Missouri's putting in one and I think the high priests of efficient market theory are probably not in the same demand for speaking engagements and seminars and all of that as they were a decade or two ago it's hard though it's very interesting it's hard to dislodge a belief that becomes sort of becomes the dogma of a finance department it's it's so challenging to them and you know they have to at age 30 or 40 to go back and say what I've learned up to this point and what I've been teaching students and all of that is is silly that doesn't come easy to people yeah Charlie well you know max-planck the great physicists said that even in physics the old guard really didn't accept the new ideas the new ideas prevail in due course because the old guard fades away clinging to the acid entities of the past and that's what's happened to the hard form efficient-market theorists they're an embarrassment to the scene and they will soon be gone on the the people who think the market is reasonably efficient or roughly efficient of course are absolutely correct and that will stay with us for the long haul thinking it's roughly efficient though does nothing for you in academia you can't build anything around it I mean what people want are what they call elegant theories and it just it doesn't work you know what investment is about is valuing businesses I mean that is all there is to investment is you sit around and you try to figure out what a business is worth it if it's selling below that figure you buy it that to my you you can't find a course virtually in the country on how to value businesses you can find all kinds of courses on how to you know how to compute beta or whatever it may be because that's something the instructor knows how to do but he doesn't know how to value a business so the important subject doesn't get taught and it it's tough to teach I think Ben Graham did a good of teaching at a Columbia and I was very fortunate to run into him many decades ago but if you take the average PhD in finance and ask him to do value a business it's got a problem and if you can't value it I don't know how he can invest in it so therefore it's much easier to take up efficient market theory and say it doesn't make any difference because everybody knows everything about it anyway and there's no sense in trying to think about valuing businesses that the markets efficient its value to them all perfectly about on the second day in that course I mean yeah yeah the first yo you walk in and you say you know everything's valued perfectly and and class dismissed so I it puzzles me but I encourage you to look for the inefficiently price you
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