저자: StocksByTheNumbers채널진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
우버(UBER)는 매출 성장(2021년 170억달러→2025년 약 620억달러)과 PER 16~20 수준에서 저평가 구간이며, 기술적 지지선과 목표가 상향(Jefferies 110달러)을 근거로 6~18개월 내 105~110달러 이상 상승을 전망. 단기 시장 조정 위험(60달러대 가능)도 언급. 빌 애크먼 등 기관 낙관 의견을 인용.
다듬은 글
Okay, stocks in numbers. Welcome back. I wanted to do a quick video, a quick analysis of Uber Technologies, ticker UBER, which is listed here in New York. Of course, Uber is essentially hailing a taxi, boom, they pick you up, right? It seems like a simple idea . However, the company is now growing like crazy.
77 and a quarter. The stock rose by two and a quarter points. Today we got a target price increase from 100 to 110, I think. Let's look at this in a moment . The stock is now up 3%. Market capitalization 157.8 billion. We trade at a P/E of around 16, with around two billion shares outstanding, and a beta of 1.25.
EPS, as you can see, is quite solid, exceeding expectations in three of the last four quarters. Well, the last two quarters, as you can see, revenue was slightly lower than forecast. Forecast 13.28 billion. We received 13.2 billion. They outperformed EPS. And, of course, last quarter, EPS was ahead again: forecast 14.19 billion, result 14.24 billion.
So, as you can see, a slight deviation in the overall picture, right? A third of a percent, half a percent. In my opinion, I don't see any particular red flags right now. You can see again how revenue has grown from 17 billion since 2021. I mean, again, 24th—44 billion, 25th—52 billion, right? So, it looks like we're heading towards about 60 billion in 2026.
Profitability increases with sales. And if we look here, you'll see that for the first quarter we have 13.2. The second quarter was around 14.2. But if you look back at this quarter last year, it was 12.65, right? So, we are growing by 10-20% year-on-year . That's why I believe that when a company grows like this, that's where the value lies.
And all you need to do is wait for a pullback or sale. And, of course, we need to act while we forge iron. So, you see, I drew a support line from the first week of August 2024, connecting it to that low on April 25th. And you can see, we had a few tests, a quick breakthrough at the end of July. Nice bounce ahead of earnings reports.
And, of course, we've only grown since then. Today we received a target price increase. So, we are in the black. Well, this is your resistance level within this six-month channel that we are in. You can see by looking at the peaks on March 4th, connecting them to that peak on May 7th. In my opinion, this will be the next stop for the stock, which is somewhere around $84-85 with a little.
So, we can expect a rise of about 10% back to this resistance line. I also want to show you, if you go back to the end of June, draw a line to the end of December, you'll see it intersect, and we recently broke through that support a few blocks ago. So if the stock wants to rise and regain this support, we are talking about the 90+ level.
Now we're out 20% if we go back to that line. Of course, we also have this blue trend line. I tried to color code them for you, but you can see that if you draw a line from the February 2024 high through the September 2025 highs, you could expect 115, 120, 130 if there's a breakout. And I think that's possible, given the company's growth rate.
So, there are a few levels to go through, I just wanted to draw the trend lines. Again, this is a line from the February 11 peak crossing the previous March highs. You see, that's the blue line that goes through them, right? This is level 100-104. Therefore, in my opinion, I understand why the target prices were raised not only due to fundamental indicators, but also due to technical analysis.
That's what I see on this graph. Again, the fact that the stock broke below support, recovered, and despite missing the earnings target is getting a rating upgrade and fighting for growth, especially in a falling market, is a very good sign in my opinion . But if you look at last year's numbers, right?
Approximately 62 billion was received in total, 52, we received 10 net profit, so a total of about 62 billion. Let's look at this: debt has increased year-over-year , free cash flow has increased, cash has decreased, but again, we have over 60 billion in revenue, right? This is for the year 2025 , right?
So for 2026, in my opinion, it will be closer to 70 billion, but we will work with what we have. So, over 60 billion minus debt is about 45, plus five billion in cash on hand. Now we're back to about 50 again. Let's move on here. We see that the number of shares is mostly steadily decreasing. Let's move on to our balance sheet.
Equity is mostly growing steadily. Here we have a decline and then growth again. But you see that total equity at the end of last quarter was about 28.5 billion. True? So, in my opinion, I personally estimate the fair value of this business at about 80 billion or so. And again, this is based on last year's revenue and profit .
So, if we estimate by future value and future business, then right now, in my opinion, we are talking about an amount of about 90 billion. So, a doubling of a $ 90 billion company—let's say hypothetically—is about $180 billion in market capitalization. which is only 1/8 higher than the current one, which doesn't really take us much higher.
You know , this is an interesting situation again, because, unfortunately, the markets are in a state of uncertainty right now , in my opinion . And this is the case where I would say, believe it or not, I still feel like the price could go up here, reach the mid-80s or even the 90s and touch these trend lines; but, in my opinion, it is exactly where it should be now.
Personally, I don't think the company is overvalued, but it's not technically undervalued either. But if hypothetically conditions remain the same and we look 6, 12, 18 months ahead, I am convinced that Uber will trade well above $77 per share. That's what it all comes down to. Is there growth? Can you make money from this?
In my opinion, definitely. Certainly. But if geopolitical problems continue , and oil fluctuates, jumps and falls by 6, 8, 10% per day, and the dollar soars, then, as we know, anything can happen . If we start to fall into a 10-15% correction zone, then, as much as I like Uber's performance, the price could well roll back to the 60s or even 50s.
So, you know, I just want everyone to understand the risks involved with the current price of these stocks, but. but given the previous growth of the business, looking at the company's prospects , at how they continue to grow, again , at a P/E ratio below 20, in my opinion, the stock is selling at a discount, and.
and I really think they can grow by about 50% from their current level and get back to 105-110 without any problems, in my opinion. The target price for Uber Technologies shares has been raised to $110 per share from $ 100 from Jefferies. So most analysts are optimistic because they see it, right? They see it.
So you want to be a part of this. I just want to quickly check the latest news. Credit line for 7.7 billion, shares are rising . Analysts' comment : autonomous delivery. The price target has been lowered from 107 to 100, but again , we're still talking about 25-27% upside potential. Uber shares are an obvious choice for Bill Ackman.
"Above market" rating from Wells Fargo, "outperform market" from Bernstein. Then again, this all happened just in the last few days, right? "Above market" rating from Barclays. Target price $125 from Guggenheim. Rating "positive" from Susquehanna, "outperform " from Cantor Fitzgerald, target price 109 from Needham.
So you can see where this is going, right? But I just wanted to quickly go over some fundamental indicators, general, just to just warn you that the price could very well pull back, drop below this line and test the 60s. But then again, if you plan on holding the stock for the long term, I think it should be fine unless you hear news about it losing significant market share, right?
Then we will have to go back and re-evaluate everything, because now the entire business will have a different value. But now, in my opinion, Uber has the potential to grow by at least 50%. I wanted to make a short video, look at the numbers, show you these trend lines, and record my thoughts. And that's actually all.
I'll end with this. So, once again, with you, "Stocks in Numbers," thank you for your time. If you have any questions, comments, or concerns, please leave them in the comments section. I usually respond pretty quickly. Follow me on X. Of course, that's where all the most interesting things happen. But, as I always say, the markets were going up, now we're in the red, the dollar jumped, and I mentioned oil again.
You could see the price above $82 per barrel, which is 6.5% per day. Welcome to the community on Discord and X. I try, you know, every time I see something, I try to talk about it. And I mentioned call options on GLD and SLV. I mentioned oil call options. I said I felt the markets would roll back. That's why I mentioned put options on all three indices.
Obviously, it worked well. Something like today. Again, don't get in my way. Something like today. I tweeted, "Oh yeah, looks like the dollar and bond yields are up and it looks like we had a potential head and shoulders pattern going back to Friday before the close." And then there was a huge gap down and I mentioned a potential rising wedge and then we broke through the level.
Same thing with the Dow right here. I was looking at this narrowing, this decline. I tweeted about a potential descending triangle, in my opinion. Put options on DIA. Boom. They have grown. So, yes . I don't know. I hit seven out of seven with short-term forecasts today. But I wanted to make a video and do a little long-term analysis, because we all know that's where the big complex growth comes in, right?
So, someone who's optimistic about Uber, if you have anything to add , something again about, you know, the autonomous driving update. Let's quickly check the news again. Very, very quickly. Target price. No, I wanted to see. Uber's profitability is improving, bookings are strong, revenue is cash flow-friendly.
Taxi work. Uber outlines the development of autonomous technologies for robo-taxis, sidewalk deliveries and drones. Partners include Flytrex, Serve Robotics, and Cartken to expand automated ride-hailing and delivery services. Persian Square again, it's Bill Ekman. Should be valued at around 15 times 2027 EPS and just 12 times 2028 EPS, highlighting the valuation metrics for traders.
So, yeah, again, if you're going to go in looking at the technicals, the stock has technically jumped a couple of points over the last few sessions in a row, right? So if you want to get in right now, for example, Uber call options at 80, maybe it's too early, you might see a little pullback, right?
if we are talking about weekly options. But, you know, the way I put it in my opinion, and of course the way Aman looks at 2027-2028—he sees the numbers going up again, as do I. And he's basically saying the same thing I'm saying: if everything stays the same, then in a year, a year and a half, or two, as he predicts, you'll see a rapidly growing business and a potentially undervalued stock, right?
We have cash on hand. The credit line, or whatever it was, was 7 billion; Analysts maintained their optimistic forecasts for Uber, despite the price adjustment. I saw one price target cut due to continued investment in autonomous vehicles and business development outlook impacting the short-term valuation.
Just remember: all these big tech companies are taking all their cash and credit, cutting back on share buybacks, and investing hundreds of billions of dollars in AI data centers that won't even be operational for a few more years. And then there's a company like Uber that's putting some money into R&D, reinvesting in itself, right, through these autonomous vehicles.
And you can see here: oh, look, this could affect the short-term valuation. As the late great George Carlin said, "It's all [ __ ], people." It's all [ __ ], and it's hurting you. Now you are all familiar with this company. You are familiar with these promotions. If you think it's a well-known brand and it can go up in price— in my opinion, it will go up.
I think, sorry, I think he can. It won't necessarily grow. It can grow, right? Nothing is guaranteed, but I like it. I think you guys like it too. And we know that Aman and other big players like it, right? So let us know in the comments what you think about it and we'll be done with that. Thanks for listening to the end, if you're still here. I love you guys. I appreciate your time. Have a nice Monday. Have a nice day.
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