저자: SylvanLane · 외국인
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트럼프가 2026년 5월 만료되는 파월 연준 의장 임기 후 사퇴하지 않으면 해임 위협. 파월은 워시 인준까지 잔류 의사. 연준법상 이사는 '정당한 사유'(범죄행위·업무불능)로만 해임 가능해 실제 해임은 어렵다는 분석. 연준 본부 리노베이션 관련 법무부 수사가 해임 명분으로 보이나 공화당 상원의원 틸리스가 수사 중단 전까지 워시 인준 반대. 수사가 해결되면 워시는 무난히 인준될 것으로 전망. 금리 인하 압박이 갈등의 핵심.
다듬은 글
President Trump is now threatening to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell if he does not step down when his term ends next month. This comes as the confirmation hearing process for Powell's replacement, Kevin Warsh, has been temporarily stalled. Here to break it all down is The Hill's business editor, Sylvan Lane.
Hey Sylvan, so this feud between the president and Jerome Powell has been going on for a while now. What is the root of the differences between them, and what do you make of the president's threat to fire him? Well, Drew, [snorts] this all goes back to 2018 when Powell became Fed chairman after Trump nominated him in his first term.
Trump, the entire time, has insisted that the Fed should be cutting interest rates to near-zero levels, even when times that the economy is doing really well. Now, for context, the Fed only drops rates down to that level typically in times where there's, you know, severe economic stress, like the coronavirus pandemic outbreak and the start of the financial crisis in 2007 and 2008.
But, Powell has been insistent about defending the Fed's put independence to set interest rates per the views of the members of the Fed board and the broader group of Fed officials that set interest rates at these meetings. Now, this has been an unresolvable issue between the two of them. It's a fundamental fight about the role of the Fed and how much it should heed advice or influence from the president, and it [snorts] has been a constant issue throughout both Trump's first term and his second term now with Powell still at the Fed after being reappointed by former President Biden during his term.
Now, Powell has said he will stay until Warsh is confirmed, even if that means staying past his term. Can President Trump legally remove him if he does that? So, the Federal Reserve Act stipulates that members of the Fed board, including the Fed chair, can only be removed for cause. Now, cause has generally been considered to mean criminal conduct or the just physical inability to do one's job.
Powell has not shown anything that would, you know, come close to seeming like it would be worth that. Though, the Justice Department has opened an investigation into his handling of the Fed's renovations. That seems like a sort of pretext for trying to do that. So, in sum, it doesn't seem like Trump could actually fire Powell now.
But, Trump has tried to fire another Fed official, and that case has been heard by the Supreme Court. So, the court's decision there could also have an influence on how this plays out going forward. Senator Thom Tillis, Republican of North Carolina, has said he will not confirm Warsh until the president drops the criminal investigation into Powell.
The president said he's not going to do that. So, what is the basis for this investigation, and what does that mean for the path forward on Warsh's nomination? So, the basis for this investigation is the fact that for a few years now, the Fed has been doing renovations to its headquarters in DC. [snorts]
Uh this is a more 100-plus-year-old building, and, you know, like a lot of renovations, whether it's a home remodel or a giant reconstruction of an old federal building, it took a little bit longer and it was a bit more costly than expected, largely due to reasons involving the pandemic, inflation, which is a bit ironic given this is the Fed, and just finding out more problems than they had realized as they started taking things apart.
Now, Powell also testified before the Senate Banking Committee last June about this issue, and there appeared to be some sort of inconsistency between what he said and the actual Fed renovations themselves. So, what ended up happening is the Justice Department, after months of threats by President Trump, opened this investigation into the Fed and Powell's handling of the renovations, along with his testimony before the Banking Committee.
Powell and dozens of economists, former Fed officials, and others have dismissed this as a political ploy to pressure the Fed into lowering interest rates as Trump has wanted to them to do for years. Even some Republican senators, including Tim Scott, the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, whose line of questioning spawned this entire thing in the first place, said he doesn't think Powell nor the Fed committed a crime involving the renovations.
So, it's a little bit ironic, too, that this investigation into Powell might be the biggest thing holding up Trump's ability to replace him with somebody who might be more aligned with his view on the economy. Does it look like Warsh has the votes in the Senate to get confirmed, and what timeline are we looking at to replace Powell?
In the universe where this criminal probe doesn't happen, it's possible that Warsh has already been confirmed. He's got substantial report among Republic support among Republican senators. Tillis, in his statement after meeting with Warsh, said he was he would be thrilled to vote for him, but couldn't because of the issues involving Trump's approach to the Fed and its independence.
I would expect that when this criminal probe gets resolved, Warsh would get a pretty substantial near-unanimous support from Republican senators and be confirmed without much issue. But, this probe really does seem to be the biggest obstacle in between Warsh and becoming Fed chairman. All right, something we'll continue to follow.
Sylvan Lane, business editor here at The Hill. Thanks again for your insight. My pleasure.
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