저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 국채 수익률 역전 등 채권시장 이상 신호로 단기 약세 우려가 커졌지만, 경기침체가 임박했다고 단정하기는 이르니 전량 매도보다 일부 현금화 후 낙폭 시 기회 매수를 고려하라는 입장. 시장 상황: 10년물 국채 금리가 2년물보다 낮아지는 역전이 발생했고, 30년물은 사상 최저 수준. 다우·나스닥 하락, 채권 강세가 주식을 끌어내리고 있음. 경기 우려 요인(본인이 제시한 7가지 가설): ①미·중 무역전쟁과 스무트-홀리 관세 재현 우려 ②연준의 금리가 너무 높다는 판단(연준 인하 필요, 트럼프 발언 일부 공감) ③마이너스 금리 국가 채권 수요가 미 국채로 몰림 ④보잉 737 맥스 문제로 항공우주 부진 ⑤브렉시트 강경 노딜 시 유럽 은행·신용 경색 가능성 ⑥민주당 좌파 후보(샌더스·워런) 당선 시 자본이득·배당소득 과세 강화 우려 ⑦대형 기관의 채권 공매도 스퀴즈 가능성(1998 LTCM 사례 언급). 기업 언급: 시스코 실적 가이던스 하향 우려, 메이시스 분기 실적 부진(소비 둔화 신호), 프루덴셜(주가 장부가 이하, 고배당 대비 재무 불투명성으로 신중), 한 시청자 보유 종목 드로우블록(경쟁 심화로 부정적). 행동 지침: 패닉 매도 반대, 현금 일부 확보는 괜찮음. S&P500은 연초 대비 약 13%, 나스닥 약 17% 상승 상태라 하락 시 기회 매수 가능. 개별 종목 매수 시 분할 매수, 그리고 시청자 질문에 대해 하락 25~30%에 지정가 매수 주문을 걸어두는 방식은 흥미롭다고 언급. 출연자 전망: 단기 모멘텀은 베어(약세)에게 있으나 장기적으로 경기 강세로 약세론자가 틀릴 것이라고 봄. 침체 회피 가능성 여전히 있다고 판단.
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y have money welcome to Crane merica other people want to but also to educate and teach you about days like today how do you get your head around a day like today Dow plunged another eight points ESPYs down two point nine three percent Nasdaq even worse off three point oh two percent well it's all about the bizarre action or at least a symptom perhaps of the bomb market and you got to remember that the bomb market is a lot larger than the stock market even though unemployment is at its lowest level in 50 years something disconcerting has happened with bonds earlier today the benchmark ten-year Treasury had a lower yield than the two-year that's a highly unusual setup we haven't seen it since yes the eve of the Great Recession of 2007 and we had memories the Yulin 30-year Treasury has fallen to record lows again that is piercing and as bond yields fall off a cliff they're taking the stock market with them why it's all because of precedent see the Bears will tell you that any time we see Treasury's behaving like this a recession surely follows long term interest rates don't drop below short-term rates unless people are really worried about the future so even if things seem fine in the economy now there's a wise put fear that they won't stay that way and the things we get worse in the future now I think that could be a mystery of the current situation but I can no longer dismiss these concerns given the pronounced moves in bonds that we saw Monday and today as I told you repeatedly I do not believe we're headed into a recession anytime soon but a lot of people clearly disagree with me smart people and history is on their side not mine so tonight I'm going to put on my doom and gloom investigation that and offer some theories about what's driving this action because what can I say it's too extreme to dismiss I'm not gonna whistle past it keep in mind I'm going to give you some pure conjecture I don't know any more than anyone else who obsessively keeps track of publicly available information but I do have my ear to the ground to speak so I can tell you what I'm hearing all day today people were talking my ear off about an elephant in the room and then that each mentioned a different elephant either we have an overabundance of pachyderms where some of these dooms hares are blowing things out of proportion we're both let's go through the negatives first there's a sense that our trade war with China is starting to tank global commerce all the amateur history buffs in the stock market are convinced that we're going to revisit the smoot-hawley Tariff when we put up massive barriers to trade right as the Great Depression got rolling memories these Bears think the trade war will be devastating and the bear cohort has grown dramatically if that happens you want to put your money in a safe haven wait Treasuries and man or man are they ever doing that they're buying Treasuries hit over fist of course if this theory is true and we reach some kind of deal with China everything has been getting hammered will come roaring back but that right now doesn't seem to be in the courts second our short-term interest rates the one set by the Fed are way too high last year Fed chief j-pal raised rates repeatedly without putting much thought into the impact that they might have we know that from his thoughtless comments in October they were very bad this is why President Trump just tweeted that the Fed is coolest now I think he was trying to help the stock market but it backfired because harassing the Fed chief just isn't it all that constructive even if Trump was right and is right look love him or hate him I think he is actually right about monetary policy see the Fed could instantly cut rates solving the inverted yield curve problem and giving the economy a nice boost oh and while Walter rates are this low it's a perfect time for the government to borrow a huge slug of money to fund some infrastructure spending but that would require the White House in Congress to actually work together which is pretty unlikely maybe you could slip in and I don't know and some sort of infrastructure bond but suffice it to say that I think Trump is right and the Fed has not done a great job they took rates much july third driver the bizarre bond market a huge percentage of government bonds and the rest of the world had now have negative interest rates when that happens it's typically because these countries have very little economic growth as I keep telling you this situation causes massive amounts of foreign money to flow into US Treasurys where you're getting a much better return than you get from say German buns that to buy dollars first that's what popping up the dollar making us less competitive point for our bond market is signaling that recession is right around the corner and there's some parts of the economy that do reinforce that view you could argue that aerospace long one of the strongest sectors in America is climbing to a halt because of the problems with Boeing 737 max Bowie's actually big enough that they can move the needle in terms of the GDP this very evening cyst though the giant technology company talked about seeing some cracks in the global economy that's surprising it will hurt all of tech tomorrow because Chuck Robb is the CEO is a cool and calm headed man but he did give low guidance meanwhile Macy's just reported riffin quarter this morning it's a warning sign that some parts of the consumers landscape could be in trouble now of course Macy's might not represent the way people shop anymore these are full price of oil based stores for heaven's sake but the quarter was definitely worrisome I got to talk about some more business talk more about later still Boeing Cisco and Macy's all headed in the wrong direction for me since this is all new I find this worries 5th the brexit deadline is rapidly approaching and a hard brexit okay let's call what ignite will your eyes glaze over but it could be a disaster I go to Europe this is what people talk about not over there maybe it causes a freeze in European commerce just as there's a dramatic decline in Chinese consumption where they sell a lot of product a Spectre is haunting Europe the specter of a brexit induced depression this is the Armageddon scenario that could potentially lead to the failure of major European banks and a total shutdown of credit it wouldn't shock me the European banks are trading as if they are in big trouble 6 the trading force were live with talk today that this decline reflects a belief that Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren might win the election both senators make no secret of the fact that they want to crack down on capital so we better get used to the fear that day in still among wealthy people who owned lots of stocks that could explain why the dividend stocks keep getting hit right because even though the bond market competition is upside down well think about it makes sense if investors expect the tax cycle on capital gains and dividend income they'd be dumping them that could happen it's not going to happen unless they're Democrats nominate one of the more left twing candidates and then sweep the Senate next year but maybe some measures are trying to price in that possibility if so we've got plenty more to fool the seventh and final explanation several large institutions might be shorting bonds betting against them and as bond prices keep rising they're getting squeezed and could be about to go bust now it may sound far-fetched but we saw something similar in 1998 with a failure of long-term capital management a hedge fund run by allegedly smart people who took some incredibly stupid risks that ended up doing tremendous damage to the market go read confessions of a street addict if you want to know so which is it well for the moment it doesn't matter does it whatever the cause we cannot ignore the Bob markets behavior it's too extreme of course many of these negatives are reversible almost all of them are man-made and Kiffer can be reversed they can be unmade right now though our stock market is handcuffed to the bond market as long as that's the case the momentum is with the Bears not the Bulls even if the Bears ultimately turn out to be wrong ultimately it's a long time from now in stocks and bonds momentum matters and while it can be irrational it is wrong to ignore it this market is now a largely ruled by fear I don't like being scared into anything when it comes to my money or yours and remember panic is not a strategy eventually I believe the cassandra's will be proven wrong I still think the economy has some strength to it or at least strength enough to avoid a recession but in the interim I accept that being calm and patient has gone out of style I want to be opportunistic and say the bond markets just plain wrong and there's plenty left to buy the truth is that we've been selling for my child will trust but you can follow along at action ones plus.com we just raised cash the bottom line I don't blame anyone or anyone for raising some cash here my trusted but it would be a big mistake to sell everything you don't panic when the economy's hanging on you wait for more of a decline remember the SP is still up 13 percent the Nasdaq is up 17% and once it comes down then you can do some opportunistic buying let's go to Larry in New Jersey Larry hey Jim how are you thanks for taking my call oh thank you for calling Larry what's up I'm what a Prudential right now thicker pee are you right hammer today yeah they did historically they've been a pretty strong stock with a good yield and they've got a compelling value proposition to make financial wellness widely available they've got a unique business mix to execute on that as well but still they've been trading at or below Book value for a while management's been pretty opaque about the investments they're making to become more efficient and recently the stock dipped almost 20% they had a bad earnings recently partly due to updated assumptions in their individual life business we're supposed to improve the return on in recent years so I'm wondering if this recent sell-off presents a buying opportunity or if you would recommend holding and that birthing plan I don't like the way this stock acts I just don't like it we I'd like to have them on I mean they there is something very wrong with where the book value is versus where the stock is versus the high yield and I have to tell you I think Prue is a fabulous company but I gotta throw the red flag I don't know enough we gotta learn more because that yield is too high and that book that is too high let's go to but in Ohio please bud booyah daddy yo Bob what's up hey t thank you again for talking sense when the markets kooky and everybody settling here thank you one of the things I've been trying to do is I'll try to incorporate your lessons about discipline and one mistake I've made the past a litte bit is buying all at once so now I've raised some cash and I'm looking at buying with wide scales on the way down just like you teach good well your recent show on flash crashes got me thinking let's say I buy some more that's why he stopped down 8% for my initial basis as I want it trade and I do my homework why not having a stand why not have a standing good show cancelled limit buy order at down 25 or 30% just in case there's another half-hour flash class and I missed the supermarket look down down that much might be interesting because there you're not gonna get it down 50 if you're down 25 that's my worry I think that's okay I traditionally like people to always focus on their orders themselves and don't do anything don't do anything like that but if you're gonna put a standing order all the way down that's intriguing to me as long as it's not 8 to 10 to 12 to 14 is it down 25 but remember here's the issue there have been the flash crashes that have even for some stocks down 30 or 40 so I would use an even wider place to do it I may not get hit but I'd that way I won't be worried let's go to Jacob in New York Jacob hey Jim I got into draw block that nineteen forty thousand deal apparently it was not should I hold or get out here though mr.
house has done a great job but holy cow there's a lot of competition coming in at them now and that's the kind of stock that's not working and it won't work tomorrow when cisco says that they see a slowdown remember cisco really put the knife to a lot of the expectations of technology tonight so there's gonna have to be a readjustment and i will find i think many people will find it surprising momentum right now people is with repairs not because of the not with the polls and it's because of this bizarre bomb work and i think with a good economy the Bears could end up being wrong but I can't be certain right now after what happened the bomb well maybe buddy tonight it was a disaster on 34th Street today I'm focusing on the broader implications of Nessie's Matt Macy's massive Ernie Smith then after today's knock-down drag-out session I know you've got questions I'm opening up the phone lines to hear from you Comerica remember we can be constructive but we can't be Pollyanna said for quite painful therefore the averages there are some silver lining linings I'm gonna point out buying an opportunity to but let's not get overconfident and
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