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how you doing guys this is Ryan welcome back to the channel this week we're gonna be talking about how to not lose money in the market this is actually inspired by bridgewater founder and Ray Dalio cut is all weather funded I actually found this at the book money mastered the game written by Tony Robbins it was actually at the time my wife was leaving her job to kind of be more of a stay-at-home mom and her retirement fund from the law firm she was working at was kind of sitting in cash and around the same time really respecting ray reading his book reading him closer I said well let me give us a shot so we're gonna jump into my wife's IRA most of our money is put into my 401k I have an employer match but this is something I'm going to kind of play around with I only put $100 in here a month but I wanted to test it out as strategy to probably use later in life because it's a little more conservative you'll see but the returns are still very good I'll actually insert a clip of Tony Robbins or maybe I'll be talking about the fund clip here let explain yeah so I sat down with a famous Ray Dalio right right and I prepared for 18 hours for that interview because he's a genius and there's not that much on him I wanted to absorb it all so I got every little bit of it sat down with and it turned out ray was a fan of my work which I was touched by 20 years ago I guess he listened my programs he was very generous with his time and we spent these three hours and in the three hours when I got to the end I said to Ray I said listen I really want help the average person so I got a question for you I did this with everyone I said if you couldn't give your money to your children any of it and all you could do would be give them a portfolio or a set of investment strategies or instructions and they were going to start over and build it what would it be nice to Tony I spent a decade figuring that out all my money is already there my kids money is there my money from philanthropy when I'm gone is there because I'm not gonna be here and I want something that'll do well in the future and I don't know what the future is gonna be markets are gonna always change I need something that could work in any mark and I call it my all-weather fund most of us in the business are familiar with it a little bit and so he explained it to me and I have a good understanding and I said I get it so what you're saying is the reason why this was obsessed him why is he defined the balance portfolio in 2008 I got nailed on both sides why did that happen to mm everybody says portfolio theory this is supposed to protect me and it didn't work but he said as soon as things get better no one talks about it we just forget about it happens didn't happen in 2000 happened in 2008 he said I figured it out when you have a 50/50 portfolio right that's 50/50 of where you put your money in assets 6040 5050 how do you look at balanced portfolio right but he said the problem is that's not balanced risk this is where people are crazy I've seen people write things up they see this in the book and say Tony Robbins is promoting firstly I'm not promoting anything every word in this book is from the best investors on earth anything that's from me is about the emotions that I know for 36 years that's been my expertise these are their views but I'll tell you what's amazing he's a Tony when you have stocks and bonds half and half you're not equal because equities are three times more volatile so your risk is ninety five five he said so that's why people get killed in 2008 he said I try to get this through to people he said but all of our people handle it you know you manage money for countries the largest you know pension funds on earth he said but people don't listen they look at and go oh this is bond heavy the bond days are over because inflation is going forward he sits not true Tony this fund in the 1970s it was the worst time for bonds it was an extraordinary time for all weather because it isn't it looks over balanced because in order to get the same level of risk you have to go for more long-term bonds or you have to use more leverage on the bond side and so when he was all done it was you know for the average person complex I'm seeing financial people look at this and write things up that are just silly saying you know this is this is never gonna work cuz we're in the you know interest rates you know the only place to go if you treats go up it's a balanced fund the other areas kick in but here's what's interesting I think told the whole thing to me I said to him I said look I said this is wonderful you give me something that very few people understand on the planet I think I really got it and I played it back - he said you got it I said there's two probably how much person is never gonna know what to do with this and I said I'm trying to help somebody that needs to know what to do I said tell me you're telling me to make this beautiful chocolate cake and you're saying Tony here's how to do it here's some sugar right use some chocolate use some dairy products I need know the amounts you know give me the amounts he goes tell me that's my secret sauce and that's when he told me he said look 10 years ago for you to even get into talk to me it was 5 billion net worth 100 million dollars of get in and I go and he said and now for 10 years I haven't did get anybody's money as he answered your own question I said you're not taking money anyway it's not gonna compete with you the average he says never gonna make it talking to a wealth manager tell me what to do and he is so generous you know he's giving up half his net worth like many other people and and in the end he said okay said of but it'll be complex I said I can make it simple he said well I don't want leverage and I said geez I won without leverage because it won't be perfect I said I don't care if it's not perfect your idea of unperfect will be somebody else's idea is the best thing they could do and they laid out the numbers we ran the numbers and use the same back-testing so you saw year by year how it really did over the last 75 years of modern investing and here's what's amazing like all weather similar in 75 years it's been right 85 percent of the time what's even more extraordinary is the 15 percent what it wasn't doing well what it knew well it's average losses 1.6 percent not 50 40 30 20 think of the last 10 years of - 50 % hits his biggest loss in 75 years was less than 4% minus three point 95 and that was 2008 when the market exploded you know down to 51 percent asset allocation markets go up and down a different assets will move up and down at different times ray please he's telling the formula to really offset the volatility return very good returns Tony actually impress ray and said if you couldn't believe you're showing your billions dollars net worth what would you leave that with if it was just a set of guidelines to invest and this is what it was and it's very counterintuitive because we'll jump into it what the fund is and how its performed so what the fund actually does is it puts 40% of the total cash value into well I'm going to say this painfully because because the interest yield is not that awesome of a 40% into long-term Treasury bonds in a section ETF over 20 year basket and I'll tell you exactly which one is ticker symbol of TLT iShares 20-plus year Treasury and it yields reason I say it's painful about two point four six percent which is pretty much stable with inflation right now we know interest rates are low they've been low for a long time and historically low and returning if you're lucky somewhere in the air inflation and forty percent of its fun actually is invested in that so it really kind of helps but you'll see later downside risk as it always returned that little mule and then if you didn't think that was enough bonds for you it has another fifteen percent into short-term bonds and that is actually ticker said well i EF i shares seven to ten year Treasury and the yield on it is very similar to the long-term you two point two eight percent the the yo curves are nearly inverted you would think when you give your money away for a longer time you get a much greater return but you're getting like point to I mean like a quarter better return whether you walk up your money in the first seven to ten years or twenty years very strange very strange but when I did this fund I was really kind of concerned about volatility to you know it's going back three four years ago I wasn't as educated as I am now not saying I still don't want to do this fund I'm probably making my own adjustments in the future and I'll kind of explain that as we get into the next part of the portfolio which is thirty percent into equities and specifically the United States equities I buy that Vanguard total stock market index ticker symbol DTI and that takes up 30% of the fund so we're up to eighty five percent of the fun Destin now the other fifteen percent goes and ooh commodities specifically seven-and-a-half percent goes into the GLD that's the ticker symbol Gold is what it is if I was golden and this is something that's supposed to accurately markets go one way gold kind of zags the other way and to offset and actually gold has had a good month for some reason the other seven half percent is the DBC ticker symbol that is just a basket of commodity items it can be named from oil gas nickel copper any other assortment of commodities we corn anything like that so it's kind of that basket that offset hopefully rainy days in the market commodities kind of tend to rise so that's the asset allocation again recap 40% until on charming US Treasuries fifteen percent into short-term US Treasuries thirty percent into the United States stock market seven and a half percent into gold and the other seven and a half percent into commodities so do you think I'm crazy it's very counterintuitive this is very counter to Before we jump into Ryan you're crazy you're putting all your money into bonds and you're getting two percent what is my actual return am i okay with it so jumping into it right now the fun is up to eighteen thousand nine hundred five dollars of 87 cents in a little tip I put the money into an IRA account with Merrill edge they're a Bank of America owned company and if you keep at least twenty thousand dollars in Bank of America County it can be even almost got a preferred member and you get things like better credit card points they'll give you an extra twenty five percent on your cash rewards so if I get a hundred cash rewards they'll give me another 25 bucks because I hold noncash and they also give some preferred interest rates given by a mortgage or a car they will be a little more competitive and give a break to four members so this kind of helps with that as well so that's why I don't mind have my money parked over here how is it performing so let's go now to accounts historical performance okay let's go your today we're close to July how are we doing this year the year-to-date return is eleven point three three percent I like that getting making eleven point three three percent in a very risk-averse type account I am happy with that you know now that we have that number let's give it a benchmark the benchmark number that I think everyone iced to look at is the sp500 so how has the S&P 500 performed in the same time frame the benchmark against any investment returns always good to go up the S&P 500 if you don't know what the SP 500 is it's a basket of the United States top 500 companies so in the same timeframe name the SP 500 according to money cnn.com is returned 17.7% so that's it that's a much better return I'm not gonna lie for an extra six percent you're subjected to a lot more volatility I just pulled in the market and what I mean by that is for example in 2008 the SP went down about 37% and all weather went down three point nine five or seven the all-weather fund is only gone four times I believe it in the history at least when the book was written and that was as big as long it was under 4% so you don't have the same kind of volatility which is an advantage and then jumping into it I've had this fund for two years so looking at the historical performance since I started it let's jump over there it's return me 14 percent for each year if you want to if you want to analyze that it's return on average 7% a year which is fairly decent compounding over time that would do very well in a year year timeframe it won't seem too crazy yeah maybe inflation it's a steady return with low downside risks in that same timeframe yes p5 hunters return about seventeen point five percent within the two years so you're getting an eight point seven five percent annualized return versus all whether returning 7% even so you have to ask yourself for an extra 1.75 percent is the downside risk worth it for me I'm gonna change my strategy moving forward and when the market pulls back I want to go a lot heavier into equities and I may even look to get some international exposure which this fun does not offer maybe reads or who knows what else I may want to add in here I wanted to make this video kind of documenting Tod to say this is what I did it was a tool and I think for for people that are older up close to retirement I do think this is a solid tool if you're older in the market drops 20% watching a retirement fund fall by hundreds of thousands of dollars it's probably not very fun you can get a similar return probably a little bit less maybe by a point or so but not have that downside risk I'm really glad that I've tried it out I'm younger and a little bit more educated maybe I can find ways together a little bit more better return but what do you guys think what do you think heavy bonds like that I'm still getting comparative return market only 30% in equities you have that 15% of commodities in GLD and in the bonds room a study over there it's interesting you know I think I thought being that bond heavy the returns would be much much worse than the S&P 500 but it's actually relatively comparative in the last two years I think it's good tool for a lot of people you know and if it's good enough for Ray Dalio the man who's making more money for investors than any other human being to ever live it might be good enough for you for me again I'm not putting a lot of money into this account Lily put 100 ollars in a month and I buy whatever has lower asset allocation at that time to bring it to that level and a reason I don't want to I don't go to creating this account is because something you should consider and actually Chris invest mentioned some in the comments in one of my videos is that retirement accounts are taxed when you pull it out as income but if you just invest the money in a regular account and if you hold those long-term you will actually be taxed as long-term capital gains which will be cheaper than income taxes launched from capital gains about 15% in income taxes well over 20% 25% because a 10% definitely something to consider that's why they don't want to go too aggressive it is I do like knowing this accounts here and like adding a little bit more money to it I definitely want to add more aggressively I probably get a lot more aggressive next time the market pulls back in a drastic way maybe 20% or so in a recession I don't know when the next recession is gonna be but I think that's the time I may want to change the apps allocation I may go 40% at the vti the total stock market index that's a strategy I'll do but please put your thoughts down in the comments if you have not already please make sure to subscribe the channel this channel is all about documenting my experience to financial freedom as you can see I'm pretty transparent with my investments here this is my husband account I wish it was more money we have more money in mine but I just want to document the joy and kind of share any insightful information to anyone else that can find it useful and have a dialogue on the comment section and also follow me over an instance who's there pretty much daily and last thing hit the like button I'll see you in -
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