저자: Benjamin Cowen · 외국인
요약 보기
이 영상은 미국 중간선거 이후에도 이어지는 증시 하락을 다루며, 2018년과의 유사점을 짚는다. 중간선거 다음 날 S&P500이 약 2% 상승했지만 이후 상승분을 반납하고 12월까지 하락한 점을 언급한다. 당시 비트코인도 한 해 내내 약세였고, 4분기 주식시장 급락과 함께 함께 밀려났다는 흐름을 설명한다. 핵심 근거로 세 가지를 든다. 첫째, 파월 연준이 중립금리에 한참 못 미친다며 긴축을 이어갈 신호를 보낸 점으로, 연준은 2018년 9월과 12월에 금리를 올렸다. 둘째, 미중 무역전쟁과 관세가 기업 이익률을 잠식했다는 점이다. 셋째, 대형 기술주에 대한 규제 감시가 강화되며 밸류에이션이 되돌려졌던 점이다. 발표자는 현재도 매파적 연준, 관세, 이란 전쟁 관련 불확실성이 남아 있다고 주장한다. 또한 나스닥이 7월 저점을 테스트하는 상황을 보며, 비트코인도 비슷한 하락을 겪을 수 있다고 전망한다. 다만 이는 발표자의 개인적 견해이며, 실제 결과는 지켜봐야 한다는 점을 밝힌다. 영상 후반에는 컨퍼런스 홍보와 할인 안내가 포함되어 있다.
다듬은 글
Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the equity verse. Today we're going to talk about the stock market and how the losses continue following the US midterms and we're going to talk about a lot of the similarities to 2018. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on ITC premium at intothecryptoverse.com.
Link is in the description below. If you're curious about what's going on in the markets and you want to hear different opinions, uh, including my own, um, make sure you come to the upcoming Investing Through the Cycles conference. We're going to be talking about all of this and more. Got a lot of great speakers coming and it's only two and a half weeks away, right?
So, if you want to come to Miami, uh, we have a great agenda planned. We actually released the agenda uh, fairly recently. We're going to have to make a couple of uh changes just last minute because people are figuring out uh everything and and whatnot, but we've got a lot of great events coming up.
So, make sure you guys check it out and you can go check out the agenda. So, the NASDAQ is down about 4% again today. And I want to talk about, you know, some of the similarities we're seeing today and 2018 because interestingly enough in 2018 there was a rally in the market the day after the midterms.
All right. Now, what happened back then is the the midterms were actually on November 6 back then. And if you look at the S&P on November 6th, 2018, what you'll notice is that the S&P actually rallied on that day. And it was actually up, I believe, 2% or something on on that on that day. Yeah. On November 7th, you can see the stock market rallied about 2.12%.
But then it proceeded to give back those gains and went even lower into December. And I remember it vividly because what happened was in that process, Bitcoin had already been struggling a lot, right? Like it had already been struggling all year long. If you look at at Bitcoin back in 2018, it was struggling, right?
Like you had your February low, you had your summer low, and it felt like things were going to hold on. But then the stock market just brought everything down, right? the stock market collapsing in Q4 20% cause Bitcoin to go back down. And that's what normally happens in Q4 of the midterm years is the stock market drops and then it it takes Bitcoin down with it.
So what happened is the stock market dropped, rallied into the midterms kind of like what we saw today, but then the macro realities came back, right? And after the midterms in that we just had a couple of days ago, there was a lot of exuberance, right? I mean, I know I know there's a lot of people here that are on both sides of the political spectrum.
And frankly, if you're in other parts of the world with very different politics than the United States, you probably look at the United States and wonder, you know, why we spend so much time talking about like a small set of issues when all these other countries in the world are talking about completely different things, right?
Completely different things. But at the end of the day, there's a lot of people that feel very strongly about their political views in the United States. And when when you have a a certain president in office, be it Republican or Democrat, what often happens at the midterms, is there's there's a lot of exuberance for the party that's not currently in power, right?
And and then this is often why a lot of times the incumbent party loses seats during the midterms because people want change because they're not happy with what the current administration is doing. So, a lot of exuberance and when you have all that uncertainty, the markets can often rally after that uncertainty as long as the most likely outcome that the markets are pricing in happens.
With Brazil, uh, a week or two ago, the less likely outcome happened and the market immediately dropped without a rally. But this time, the market rallied because the the outcome that occur that that occurred was what was mostly priced in. And then we're now beyond that level of uncertainty. The same thing happened in 2018.
But here's where things get really interesting, right? And I wrote some of this down so I can I can make sure I don't forget any any any of the ma major points. There were three main things in 2018 that happened following the midterms. And some of it was kind of before the midterms, but it all sort of transpired after the midterms that allowed for a a stock market to continue to drop.
And those three things were eerily similar to today. Like almost like it it it feels like a simulation to some degree. Okay, let's talk about the three similarities. Number one, a hawkish bed. In 2018, Jerome Powell came out. This was actually in October before the midterms, but in October 2018, Pal came out and he said that interest rates were still a long way away from neutral and he signaled to investors that the Fed would continue tightening monetary policy into 2019 regardless of cooling economic data.
What's interesting is that he said that, but then the Fed did not raise interest rates in 2019, right? They did not. And if you look at the summary of economic projections, I'm not going to pull it up because I pulled it up many, many times already, but if you look at that, it showed in the in the SCP back then that the Fed was thinking we were going to get two more rate hikes in 2019.
And so what happened is the Fed raised rates in September like they did in 2026. They then skipped the next meeting and then they raised rates again in December. So the first thing you have is a hawkish Fed. And if you go look at what the Fed's saying, they're still looking to raise rates. What's interesting is the fact that the NASDAQ is down 4% today.
Despite that, guess what? The Fed doesn't seem to care. There's still a 75% chance nearly that they're going to raise rates in December. I don't know if they're going to. If if the if the selloff gets bad enough, perhaps they won't. But this is the issue is that you have a market down 4%. The long end's been dropping, but yet the Fed is still likely to raise rates.
Why are they going to raise rates? Two reasons, the war in Iran and tariffs. Which brings me to my second point. Number two, in 2018, we had an escalating US China trade war. And just before and after the midterms, there was a lot of companies back then, Caterpillar, 3M, and Ford. They warned that the rising tariff costs were basically essentially eating into the profit margins.
This was back in 2018. But you could also say the same thing about today, right? like all the tariffs have eaten into profits for a lot of the companies, right? Especially the ones that are more, you know, rate sensitive and they're not relying on the AI trade. Now, you might say, well, this time's different because we have the AI trade.
But back then, we had uh, you know, we had the fang stocks, right? We had major tech valuation reversals back then and it was due to a number of different things but one of the ones was uh there were severe regulatory scrutiny that was beginning to occur. Now think about everything I said. Okay, let's just get the last point on here.
Severe regulatory scrutiny. Now think about this. This was 2018, right? This was 2018. But could you not look at this and say that while it was 2018, it's also today, right? Like it's it's actually very similar to today as well. In fact, we now have the Iran war as well. So, when you look like when you look at the year-to- date ROI of the NASDAQ, right, or the S&P, but let's just go look at at the NASDAQ.
So, we'll go to indices. We'll look at the NASDAQ here. When you look at this in 2026 and compare that to 2018, it looks really similar, right? Like I I'm not going to sit here and preach that it has to play out in the exact same way because it probably won't. There are differences that occur. But the reality is the same macro pressures that existed back then that caused for a lot of these major selloffs.
You could argue we have the same thing today and in fact today it's just worse because now we also have the the war in Iran which you know who knows if that's even over. If you look at energy markets, energy markets seem to think it's over, right? Like if you look at um uh you know, oil, right? Oil, you know, Brent is at 100.
You know, WTI is at 90, but I don't even know if it is. I mean, they're sending aircraft carriers over there. More aircraft carriers. I mean, how do we know it's over? I hope it's over. I would love nothing more at this point than for that to come to an end, at least for the market's sake. But how do we know it's going to?
And yes, there might be more oversight next year when the Democrats take the House and the Senate and there's a little bit of push back on this because right now the Republicans control everything, right? And there's not a lot of push back because they're just all staying within party lines. But the problem is that January is still two months away.
So, yes, you have a change that might lead to some more checks and balances on the executive branch that could help unwind what's going on over in Iran. But that's still two months away. So, what's going to happen? You know, I mean, if Trump said yesterday that the reason the Republicans lost, I was kind of surprised he admitted it.
He said the reason they lost was due to the Iran war and then the minute he said it then everyone else then goes and parrots it and you got a you know the the big post by JD Vance on on Twitter but they're admitting that it's the case. So I'm trying to think like if you were in that position would you end it right after the midterms?
It would have made more sense to end it before the midterms to say all right we're done with this. I don't know if anyone would have believed them, but they've been telling us they're going to continue with this after the Midterms. I hope they don't. Like, I hope they don't, but I don't know what they're going to do.
I don't know if they know, but I know that I don't know. And so, what that means is there's just still uncertainty, right? And and I I think the markets, you know, markets in general do not like uncertainty, right? They really really don't. And when you have a hawkish Fed, right, when you have a hawkish Fed, despite tech getting annihilated, the South Korean market yesterday, by the way, you know, hit hit the circuit breakers again.
You have I guess I can't spell trade here. Um, you have trade wars not just with China, but like practically around the world. I mean, tariffs have been basically universal. And then you could also argue that we have a lot more regulatory scrutiny coming to AI in you know in just the next couple of months.
So all of this combined together is kind of a carbon copy of 2018. And when you have a situation like that, how can you ignore, right, the similarities, right? How, and we've talked about a Q4 drop the entire year, right? The entire year. And I don't know exactly how low it's going to go, right? Like I don't know.
You can see right now that the NASDAQ is testing the July low. But I will leave you with this as it relates to Bitcoin, okay? because I know a lot of people, you know, are interested in that as well. If the NASDAQ can test the July low, ask yourself, why can't Bitcoin? Right? Again, if the NASDAQ can test it, why can't Bitcoin?
I know it seems crazy, right? But it's not really that crazy, right? If other markets can do it, then so could Bitcoin. So, just consider that. And um you know, I don't know. Like I I mean, this stuff is just all over the place. Like one day we're up on some random headline, the next day we're down on some other random headline.
Who really knows what's going to happen? But I'll tell you this, I think there's a lot of fatigue in the market. And um and if there is a drop, if there is a big drop by Bitcoin going into Q4, remember what we talked about all year, right? Remember what we talked about all year. My guess, I could be wrong.
My guess is that the people that have been so bullish on Bitcoin the entire year, right, will be the ones that actually end up capitulating the lows because they think, "Oh, no, things are changing, right?" And and they finally get the memo. But it's once they get the memo that then the next bull market begins, right?
So those are my views. We'll see if it plays out, you know. We'll see if it plays out. But, um, the markets just continue to give me every reason to believe that it is playing out. I mean, even the S&P has reversed those gains. It's actually doing it more aggressively than 2018. It is. So, just something to think, something to leave you guys with there.
Thank you guys for being here. Subscribe, give the video a thumbs up, and if you want to come talk about this stuff with us in Miami, it's only two and a half weeks away. Less than two and a half weeks away. In fact, it's just like a little over two weeks away cuz the first part of the conference is Friday of that week, right?
So, um you're talking about really just over two weeks away. So, make sure you guys check it out. Links in the description below or the pin comment. And I'll see you guys next time. Bye.
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