저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
8월 증시는 델타 변이 우려와 10년물 금리 하락 속에서도 결국 월말에 상승 마감할 것이라는 낙관론이다. 핵심 근거는 코로나 입원 증가세의 꺾임과 10년물 금리가 100주 이동평균 부근에서 반전 가능성이다. [시장 전망] 8월 주식은 벽의 우려를 타고 월말에 상승할 것으로 봤다. 델타 확산 피크 통과 또는 금리 반등 중 하나가 나오면 위험선호 랠리가 촉발될 것이라 했다. [금리·연준] 금리가 컨센서스보다 더 오를 확률이 높다고 봤으나 불확실성을 인정했다. 연준은 델타 때문에 기업과 OPEC의 망설임이 커져 오히려 비둘기파 쪽으로 기운다고 판단했다. [비트코인] 비트코인은 위험자산 성격이 강하며 하반기에 금리가 안정되면 랠리 가능성이 있다고 낙관했다. 현재 3만~4만 달러 상단을 지키고 있다고 언급했다. [섹터·종목 관점] 에너지와 기술주를 두고 기술적 과매도 신호를 근거로 반등 기회를 봤다. 구리와 BHP·리오틴토 같은 자원주, 유럽·아시아 경기민감주의 상대 강세를 주목했다. 산업재 비중 확대를 권했다. [출연자 전망 요약] 단기 조정 속에서도 델타 정점 통과와 금리 안정을 전제로 한 상승 쪽에 무게를 두었다. 다만 금리 방향은 예측이 어렵다고 스스로 인정했다.
다듬은 글
august getting off to a cold start the s p 500 endow getting hit in a late day sell-off while the nasdaq eeked out again stocks getting tripped up over worries about delta variants slowing economic growth but our next guest believes it'll still be a winning month for stocks let's bring in tom lee head of research at fundstrike global advisors he's also a cnbc contributor tom great to have you with us what makes you so confident about august um well i think markets are anxious about two things things you already addressed you know one is the delta variant across the u.s and the fear that this could trigger new lockdowns and the second i think especially coming into play today is that the tenure continues to sink lower so despite expectations across the street for inflation and higher real rates to drive higher nominal rates uh the ten years sinking so i think investors pretty nervous about those two things but i think between now and month end uh you know we think the odds are high that the delta variant could peak one of the reasons we believe that is hospitalizations incrementally for covet are actually beginning to roll over and the second is that um you know i think the tenure is sort of an important juncture here it's near the 100 week moving average and it looks like it could potentially be reversing so i think you could have higher rates into month end or delta rolling over and both would trigger a risk on rally the delts are rolling over and we've seen the charts of the uk the case is peaking we've seen sort of a similar chart if you overlay that with i think it's missouri in terms of its caseload and so those those things are very promising in terms of data but in terms of your call that the 10-year yield will actually emerge from this critical juncture and go higher is that based on anything or is that just your belief that because it sounds like this whole bullish call for august is predicated on these two things and one of those things is is sort of just a hold your finger to the wind kind of call oh that's right i mean uh you know markets are unpredictable and interest rates are even more unpredictable so again i would i would probably be more appropriately saying i think the probabilities of rates perform rising more than consensus expects is what we think will happen in august if the delta variant starts to roll over so i think interest rates and cases and markets are all kind of connected here but really over the next couple weeks we think that plays out favorably for stocks hey tom i'm obviously concerned like everyone socially about delta variants i'm not worried about the long-term impact on the economy frankly i'm a lot more worried about the fed's role in the market so as you look to the next couple months because it's all about the fed and you know lail brainard was out there late last week and i think her voice is probably as loud as it's ever been relative to her place in the fed about you know the fed's got to wait for at least september data um that probably doesn't come out till october there's not a fed meeting until november i mean doesn't this give you kind of the view that the fed is not in your face until probably late october november uh yeah tim that's a great point i mean markets really should worry about the fed because the fed is one of the most important influences on the market and while last week's meeting might have had some hawkish surprises ultimately the fed can't you know the fed has no crystal ball greater than the markets and if you can't see around the delta variant and the hesitation it's creating among corporates and even opec i'm not sure that anyone should say the fed is suddenly more hawkish i think it does give the fed a dovish tilt and as you know dovish tilt is great for stocks hey tom it's bk so let me ask you about bitcoin because what we've seen with bitcoin it has not been correlated to many assets until recently we see the correlation with the s p 500 growing the correlation with copper growing a bit so does does bitcoin fit into this entire framework of the wall of worry or is there something different going on there um well you know bitcoin is volatile brian but uh i've tended to view bitcoin as a risk-on asset and i think especially outside the u.s it's probably a proxy for risk taking much more than the local stock markets you know globally and in the second half i mean i think that if delta rolls over and interest rates start to stabilize everything rallies i think bitcoin's holding up really well you know it's at the upper end of this 30 to 40 000 range obviously it took a hit today because of some of the uh you know the infrastructure bills the tax code around brokers and crypto but also there have been some actions within the crypto community but um yeah i'm optimistic about bitcoin railing into your end tom great to see you thanks for your time thanks for having me tom lee of fun strat jeff mills what do you think of this everything rallies kind of call in particular energy which had a terrible month of july and technology which funstrat recently upgraded yeah well i think you've seen some extremes across the board energy being a place where you had zero percent of stocks in the energy sector trading above its 50-day moving average so i think there are opportunities there and i think you've seen similar things in rate so i think you can make the rate call technical if you look at tlt for example flows into tlt so people betting on rates going lower are now approaching the 95th percentile so a pretty good contra indicator that i think we're closer to a bottom than not in interest rates and because i think that and because i don't think delta shuts down the world economy i would rather be in places that have already experienced some level of pain and are better positioned for an economy that i think is supportive of cyclical market leadership and i i look at the way interest rates and growth have behaved and i'm surprised as rates again have come down that you haven't seen more outperformance in growth so perhaps there are the winds of change again relative to market leadership and you can look at industrial metals like copper there's strength there you can look at some of the classic resource names like bhp and rio starting to outperform and then even looking at european and asian cyclicals you know those were areas of the market that actually led us cyclicals back in 2020 in the fall before we saw that leadership shift here so we're seeing that again so i think i would rather be positioned there going forward i mean to jeff's point igv today you would expect it to be up a lot is flat you would you would uh also when jeff mentioned winds of change i know that's one of your favorite uh songs by the scorpions and i know you were kind of about to start whistling with the k but you know where they slip that in with yeah i i do think investors need to stick to their guns on having views like today you had weak ism and some pmis around the world and suddenly growth's off the table and i realized the 10 years been telling us something now for for three to four months but but look if you believe in reflation trades and if you believe in banks and you believe that if anything that the fed has going to have to move at some point you want to own some of these industrials and i just think that there's been a lot of opportunities to buy weakness stay there you
Comments 0