저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 미국 경기침체 가능성을 높게 보며 금리·노동·정치 리스크를 강조하지만 구체적 매매 지시는 없음. 경기침체 전망: 연준 긴축과 채권금리 상승이 대출 부담을 키우고 주택·고용 등이 약화되고 있어 큰 폭의 경기둔화를 피하기 어렵다는 주장. 연착륙 시나리오: 노동시장은 식었지만 견조하고 인플레이션은 완화 중이며 3분기 GDP도 강한 편이라는 낙관적 시각도 함께 언급. 체감 경기: 자동차 대출 기간 연장·월 상환액 증가 등 서민 체감은 나쁘다는 점과, 팬데믹 지원금 종료가 소비에 미칠 영향을 지적. 단기 리스크: 미국 자동차노조(UAW) 파업 비용 93억 달러 이상, 학자금 대출 상환 재개(연 약 700억 달러 부담 추정), 11월 정부 셧다운 가능성, 유가·중동 리스크, 주택담보대출 금리 상승을 열거. 중기 리스크: 일자리 증가 둔화와 공석 감소, 인플레이션 3~4%대 잔존 및 2% 목표 도달 불확실성, 중국 경기둔화와 디커플링, 글로벌 투자자의 중국 주식 이탈을 언급. 연준 전망: 올해 한 차례 추가 인상 가능성과 2024년까지 고금리 장기화 시사, 이에 따른 차입비용 상승 우려. 은행권: 실리콘밸리은행 붕괴와 고금리의 연관성, 금융 부문 취약성 우려. 결론 및 기타: 경기침체는 역사적으로 불가피하며 현재는 견조하지만 리스크가 존재한다는 입장. 구독·좋아요 요청 등 홍보성 발언은 제외.
다듬은 글
so is the US economy finally going to unir itself you guys know what I'm talking about it's like the American people are collectively holding our breath I think since nobody in mainstream media is really saying it we have to say it the economy isn't in the best shape at the moment experts say that just when the fed and other economists least expect that's probably when we're going to get hit hard by a recession honestly I don't know what those other Financial channels are thinking but for me let me know if you guys agree for me the odds that the US economy doesn't see a recession are pretty unlikely check this out you still expect a recession you have any uh perspective on on how deep and how soon well I think one of the things that of course the fed's not going to going to sit there and tell you that a recession is coming uh relatively quickly particularly when they're holding tight monetary policy in place but it's the sort of thing where just as everyone is sort of giving up on this recession because it's come you know much later than most people have expected the the storm clouds are gathering right you've got you know the backup in bond yields that move is directly hitting incremental borrowing and the vast majority of borrowers you've got frankly the fact that we've had a longer and longer term of elevated Bond bond yields which means that those who have hesitated to borrow are now starting to run down their cash piles and now starting to face a need for increased borrowing ahead and the fact that you're starting to see weakening in various more uh ccal sectors of the economy housing had popped and now is rolling over employment you know here and there is getting weaker and weaker and so the odds that we get out of this without having a meaningful slowdown in economic activity are pretty unlikely the people are saying a recession isn't coming kind of feels like they're in full scale denial and so that's why surrounding yourself with people doing financially better than you who have sound financial advice is a recipe for success and that's why we have each other our very own Financial Freedom fam right here on YouTube right guys now let's talk about the economies hold your breath moment for a hot minute here all right so the RedHot labor market it's cooling off a a little bit but it remains resilient it's the type of thing that you'd want to see if the Soft Landing scenario that we're aiming for where the economy slows down without going into negative territory is going to happen inflation has moderated consumers are still hanging in there the country's GDP for the third quarter is expeced to come in quite strong it actually needs to slow a little bit if inflation's going to come down more objectively you can't look around and declare yes we're in the midst of a broad-based recession but honestly why doesn't it feel like it for the average American you know what I mean remember back in the day when a normal auto loan was 3 or 4 years now it's like 6 and 7 years and the payment is still $800 to $1,000 people are talking about kicking the federal reserve's bottoms out of the financial market and taking back our country that's what they're saying because still after the last few years being nervous is still well within many Americans rights many Americans have been worrying about the economy for what seems like forever and it's starting to seem like some level of economic anxiety might be here to stay and it makes sense really the thought of a recession is pretty scary dealing with inflation isn't much fun and let's be honest work isn't always a walk in the park for many lowincome Americans living with economic uncertainty has just become a way of life there are potential challenges on the horizon like there always are there are signs pointing in not so great directions a lot of the extra savings people socked away during the pandemic have disappeared and those government support programs that help most people out they're gone the Federal Reserve has been steadily raising interest rates for over a year trying to cool down the economy and fight inflation but we're not sure if we've actually felt the full impact of that yet remember that Silicon Valley Bank collapsed from last spring well part of that blame goes to the Fed rate hikes it's like a hold your breath moment because you're just waiting to see how it all plays out I mean it's kind of always been that way but now it's even more intense since 2020 we've been navigating uncharted waters and now we're trying to find our way out of them you can make the case in every direction what I know for certain though is that it pays to be updated during these weird Economic Times subscribe to the channel and tap that notification Bell and as always show show the channel some love light up the like button and make my day that much better appreciate you guys so much it really means a lot to me you guys mean a lot to me now on the economy The Vibes and realities don't always match there's often a negative bias here too people's individual circumstances vary as well and if you're a striking Auto worker if your student loan payments are about to come back or if you've gotten swept up in some of the tech layoffs earlier this year you're of course going to be extra worried right now now on the macro level really things do seem to be pretty solid but there are definitely some potential uncertainties to keep in mind in fact experts are calling it a triple threat moment for the economy and not in a good way we got a bit of an economic triple threat on our hands right now in the short term there are quite a few factors that while individually not too significant on their own could pile up and drag down the economy when they all come together the United Auto worker strike the return of student loan debt payments and of course the risk of a government shutdown in November are all contributing to this tricky situation through the first 5 weeks of the walkouts which ended midnight October 19th the cost to the Auto industry surpassed $9.3 billion so it definitely caused disruption on a wider scale the government shutdown's another concern I know we just averted it by the skin of our teeth recently but all they did basically was Kick the Can down the road I mean it could all just be weeks away yet again if Congress doesn't work out a deal by mid November not to mention the House of Representatives still pretty much is a mess after they ousted former house Speaker Kevin McCarthy so that definitely adds to the uncertainty although some of the economic losses during shutdowns can be recovered there's still damage during 2018 2019 the government shutdown led to $3 billion in economic growth and that's growth that we're never going to get back in any case a government shutdown is a clear sign of political dysfunction and that's not good for the economy then of course there's the resumption of the student loan payments analysts at Goldman Sachs estimate that this would cost American households about $70 billion annually while it's not completely tank in the economy it's likely to affect consumer spending as Bor ERS divert money toward their student loan payments instead of putting it back into the economy in the mix there are shorter term factors that play as well oil prices are on the rise driving up gas costs and the situation in Israel and Palestine could easily push them much higher mortgage rates are spiking and pandemic relief programs have come to an end including food stamps snap EBT Medicaid and unemployment insurance Congress also let the expanded child tax credit expire these relief programs had a clear impact on demand and helped improve people's Financial situation so it's not hard to guess which way things are going now child poverty increased in 2022 after these supplemental programs ended and millions of people lost Medicaid coverage the job market is still decent but slowing down and the Federal Reserve is keeping a close eye on it all of these factors combined make for a very complex economic landscape at the moment now that's the small scale stuff guys we also need to talk about the medium scale factors jobs inflation China and the FED what's been pretty impressive about this recovery is how resilient it's been many Americans managed to find new jobs trade up from Bad jobs to better ones and jump back into the workforce now sure inflation outpaced wage growth for a bit but that's not the case anymore and it's been especially good news for those at the lower end of the income scale who by the way have seen significant improvements but things have started to calm down in recent months people are quitting their jobs at more typical rates and the number of job openings is decreasing job growth is also slowing down too all of this seems like it's heading back toward a more normal situation now now the big question is whether this normal state will stick around there's a chance that the trend could continue downward potentially leading to job losses if it keeps going in that direction to put it simply the foundation of optimism for many including the FED it's starting to look a little bit less steady as we move through the year another worry is the return of increasing inflation it's generally moving in the right direction but the road ahead could have some major bumps now while we hope that the labor market holds steady we also hope that inflation which has been running at about 3 to 4% per year continues to ease down toward that 2% Mark that the Federal Reserve aims for in the long term plus some factors that could push inflation up like trade disruptions and Rising oil prices are things that the FED can't easily control plus we're seeing a lot of political instability in China at the moment and increasing decoupling between China and the US and more generally we've entered since the pandemic a new era of trade protectionism policy makers are bracing for a hit to their economies as China's Imports of everything from construction materials to electron ICS slide caterpillar Inc says Chinese demand for machines used on building sites is worse than previously thought US President Joe Biden called China's economic problems a ticking Time Bomb Global Investors have pulled over1 billion out of China's stock markets and most of that selling has triggered blue trip stocks big players like Goldman Sachs Group Incorporated and Morgan Stanley have lowered their targets for Chinese equities with Goldman even warning about potential spillover risks for the rest of the region now China's the second largest economy in the world and if it keeps slowing down it's not going to be good news for the global economy according to the international monetary fund even a 1% change in China's growth rate can have a 3% impact on global expansion so if the US and Europe hit a recession while China remains weak it's going to be a problem not only for China but for the entire global economy so yeah another problem for the FED most likely now speaking of consider the FED another wild card in the mix they kept interest rates steady in the last meeting so there is some optimism about where the econ is heading they're expected to raise rates one more time this year and have hinted at keeping rates higher for longer into 2024 so it looks like the FED is actually banking on the belief that the economy can handle these higher rates now that means borrowing costs might stay on the higher side which probably won't sit well for many consumers businesses and investors but remember the economy is full of surprises and economic predictions are just that predictions it's still a little bit unclear whether we actually felt the full consequences of the Fed bed's previous interest rate moves some of us actually think that we've seen the full impact while some of us think we haven't seen the full impact and we're particularly concerned about the financial sector especially with how higher interest rates might have played a role into the collapse of Silicon Valley Banks and other pretty big Banks as well there's a potential challenge Brewing where the FED might find itself caught between different economic forces moving in different directions plus let's not get into the various scenarios that could potentially destroy the economy like artificial intelligence AI getting out of control a disastrous 2024 election where people in Mass refus to accept the rules large scale confrontation between Global powers like Russia and NATO but let's be real these are pretty unlikely scenarios plus if there is a global nuclear war your local banks mortgage rate probably won't really matter so considering all of this maybe it is time to accept a little economic anxiety but here's the bright side there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the economy too like job growth consumer spending and overall growth a soft Landing scenario is very much on the table though most experts and policy makers aren't rushing to call it a definite win now the US economy has been flirting with the idea of a recession for quite some time but it hasn't actually taken the plunge just yet eventually there will probably be another downturn because historically recessions have been part of economic life right now though the economy appears pretty robust and while there are risks on the horizon whether they turn out to something significant is something that we can't say for sure definitely all the more to keep tuning into to the channel right guys make sure you're subscribed drop a like for the video and we'll see you guys on the next one
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