저자: Plain Finance Reborn · 외국인
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But David, many stocks in the US are down. There are a few stocks that are going through the roof every day. I mean, some parts of the US market are developing a market. Beginning of a bubble. Uh, but many parts of the market are not. That's why I would suspect this is going to go on for a while. Japanese market's down 30% from its all-time high.
And the Bank of Japan buys ETFs. It prints huge amounts of money and buys ETFs every day. David, he has more money than I do. if she's going to buy ETF, so am I. And the market's down. Likewise in China, the Chinese market is down 30 or 40% from its all-time high. You know, they've done a less bad job of dealing with all of this.
So, China, Japan, Russia, Russia's hated. Uh there are markets that are still down and I would prefer to buy those. But, you know, they're also, I mean, commodities, commodities may be the cheapest asset class around right now. We've had bare markets periodically for thousands of hundreds of years. We will have them again.
In 2008, we had a bare market because of too much debt. Well, David, since 2008, debt everywhere in the world has skyrocketed staggering amounts. So, what I said was the next time we have a bare market, and I don't know when it's going to be. Watch Kitco News. They'll tell you when it's coming, but when it comes, it's going to be the worst in my lifetime.
has to be cuz the debt is so so I mean maybe I'm wrong and if I'm wrong you tell me why but the debt is so much much much higher all over the world now than in 2008. Well, when markets start going down for when bare markets start for whatever reason, people are very skeptical of companies that have a lot of debt because that's fear.
As exuberance gives way to fear, people start worrying about will they survive or can they survive or their earnings must go down because they have so much debt and some companies start going bankrupt, the really bad ones and that and it spreads. I mean, this is just a simple bare market there. I'm not making any of this up.
It's happened hundreds of times in bare markets all over the world uh throughout history. And that's the way they work. As I look around the world, bonds are a bubble. Many stocks are making all-time highs. Property in many countries is certainly in a bubble. The cheapest asset class I know of commodities now.
I mean, sugar's down 80%. Silver's down 50% from its all-time high. These are the kind. This is not a bubble. As I look at asset classes, at the moment, commodities seem to be the cheapest. I'm buying more commodities as we speak. You've launched an ETF, uh, the Rogers Commodity Index Fund back in the '90s.
What were the components of this index, and how did you decide the percentage of allocation of components when you launched this ETF? Well, I was about to go around the world, but I and I realized that the commodity bull market was about to start. I wanted to invest in an index because I was going to be traveling.
I looked at all the indices. None of them were I wouldn't invest in any of them. They were all hopeless. So, I came up with my own. There were over there over 35 components. And it was basically because I wanted to be a worldwide index. Many of the indexes were pretty narrow that existed and they were mainly US- ccentric.
I wanted something that would in it international the cost of doing business, the cost of staying alive. So the over 35 components and the and the weightings were essentially based on you. I mean oil was much heavier than sugar because we all use a lot more oil than we use sugar. Sure. In our lives, oil is in the process of making a complicated bottom.
U you know bottoms go up and down, up and down and go sideways for a while and then eventually turn around and go up. We're beginning to see bottoms developing in energy because it takes a while and because of the demand which is down a lot but we're making a bottom. I I have no idea of when it ends 2021 22 23 but then it'll turn around and start going up again.
What about uh let's talk about gold and silver now. Um, gold is a commodity which has been around for centuries and will continue to be around for centuries whether we like it or not. I'm an old peasant and us old peasants know when things go wrong we better have some gold. We better have some silver in our closet or under our bed because it's well it is the thing which will get us through when governments or currencies start having problems.
Well, gold is near its all-time high. So gold is near its all-time high. I don't know what what else I can tell you. Um it's not making low. I'm not buying gold. Lots of people are being forced to sell their gold to buy food right now, especially in India, which is the largest gold country in the world.
Uh but I will be buying more gold and I'll be buying more silver later. I'll buy more silver than gold because silver is much cheaper on a on a historic basis. analysts I've spoken to have said that even though it's reached all-time highs, this is just the beginning of a larger bull run into uh into potentially even newer highs.
Can you can you see that happening? Yes. No, I expect suspect they're right this time because there's going to be great turmoil. Yeah. Certainly in the next two or three years in the world market. We talked before about gigantic amounts of debt. We talked about how a bubble is starting to develop in some stock markets.
Bubbles always end. uh when that ends and when it all this debt comes crashing in on all of us many people are going to turn to gold and silver again. How is it possible that we have stimulus on such a large scale today? It would this have been possible back in the 80s or 70s? No, of course not. William the Machznney Martin who in the 60s wouldn't Are you kidding me?
No. No. Well, he was the guy who came up and said, "Well, my job is to take the punch bowl away when people start having fun. When they're not having fun, I give them all the punch they want, and when they start having too much fun, I take the punch bowl home." You know, Vulkar was another guy like that.
But since then, in the last 30 years, India had a good central banker for a while, but I cannot think of any decent central banker in the past 20 or 30 years other than them. Now, central bankers are essentially bureaucrats and politicians who really don't have a clue. They their job is to keep their job and the way they keep their job is to keep people happy and that means print money and spend money and borrow money.
Do you do you like the technology sector? Do I I like I mean I'm not going to buy those things. You kidding? I mean Apple. No, I'm not just the first one to know about Apple. You know, apparently every uh every new investor in in in the US right now is buying Apple. Yeah. In China, they're buying 10 cent.
They're buying all of these stocks than new investors. It's not for me. I mean, it may double again, but not for me. I prefer to buy things that are cheap and hated. So, something that's not being looked at. So, Apple, for example, is everybody everybody analyzes that stock. There's there's as an investor it it's difficult to find uh value in in something that's looked at by everybody is what you're saying.
Not only just looked at owned by everybody owned by everybody. Yeah. You know, and many who own it and don't even know what it is, but it doesn't matter. They're making money so they're happy. But that's not for me. I mean, I'd rather I bought a Russian shipping company recently. Oh my god. You talk about hated.
It's hated. Russia's hated. That company's hated. There are opportunities where things are hated and nobody knows about
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