Howard Marks Says the FED Could Buy EVERY STOCK

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결론: 연준의 무제한 채권·주식 매입 가능성은 시장을 인위적으로 띄우는 것이며, 정책이 지속되는 동안은 부실 신용 위험이 가려져 있으나 디폴트 물결이 이어질 것이므로 오크트리는 향후 더 공격적으로 매수할 계획이다. 연준 정책 범위: 현재 연준은 타락천사(투자등급에서 투기등급으로 강등된 채권)까지만 매입하고 있으며, 하이일드 ETF도 사고 있다. 이론상 연준이 더 나아가 더 낮은 등급의 채권이나 주식까지 매입할 수 있으며, 대차대조표는 10조 달러까지 늘어났다. 정책의 한계: 연준이 모든 거래의 매수자가 되면 시장은 상승하겠지만 이는 가짜 시장(포템킨 시장)이며, 연준이 멈추는 순간 붕괴할 것이다. 이 정책은 작동하는 동안만 효과가 있다. 오크트리 매매 변화: 3월 중순에는 공적 부채시장에서 매우 적극적으로 매수했으나, 연준·정부 프로그램 발표(3월 말) 이후 가격이 급등해 지금은 그만큼 공격적으로 사지 않고 있다. 정책 개입으로 시장이 그렇지 않았을 때와 달라졌으며 이는 오크트리에도 영향을 준다. 향후 디폴트 전망: 신용평가사와 투자은행들은 미국 하이일드 채권 잔액의 15~25%(약 4,000억 달러)가 디폴트할 것으로 본다. 4월에 19건의 디폴트·파산이 있었는데 이는 역사상 한 달 기준 최대 규모이며, 위기는 이제 시작이다. 구조적 위험: 디폴트와 파산은 기업이 현금을 소진할 때 주로 발생한다. 정부·연준의 구제 프로그램이 닿지 않는 대규모 고레버리지 기업과 투자기구가 많아 추가 파산이 불가피하다. 투자 기회: 과거 위기 때 오크트리는 이 여파에서 수익을 내 왔다. 혼란이 클수록 싼 매물이 많아지므로, 향후 몇 달간 매수를 더 늘릴 가능성이 크다. 마크스는 '상대가 주는 대로 받는다'는 원칙으로 대응하며 상당한 기회가 앞에 있다고 본다. 출연자 관점: 시장 가격이 영원히 하락하지 않는다는 가정은 이론일 뿐이며, 실제 시장에서는 큰 위기 뒤 대규모 디폴트 여파가 반드시 온다는 것이 그의 기본 입장이다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. for now the Federal Reserve has drawn the line at fallen angels the investment-grade bonds that were downgraded to junk and we've talked about what that has done for the investment-grade market and the Fed is also buying at the moment high-yield ETFs what if Howard the Fed goes further into junk territory what if it decides that it's okay to buy double B's or perhaps even lower rated debt their arsenal has been described as limitless I still believe that it will only work as long as it works and as long as they are actively doing it look Eric what if the Fed said we're going to be the buyer in every transaction every bond transaction every stock transaction we're going to be the buyer the Fed has an unlimited checkbook you know that they are checks never clear so we we're gonna we're gonna buy forever you know this Fed has increased its balance sheet up to 10 trillion there's no limit we'll buy more well in theory they could do that and in theory they if they bought aggressively they could make all the markets rise now everybody would know that that's a Potemkin market that it's a fake and the minute they stopped things would collapse how do these considerations and concerns affect what oaktree is doing affect what oaktree is buying and when oaktree is buying sure we were very active buyer in the public debt markets in mid-march and then on the 23rd or 4th of March the the government and Fed started to talk about what their program would be and around the 26 they announced it and that drove up prices in the public credit markets to the point where we're not buying as aggressively at this point time so it you know it has it has changed the market from what it would have been if they hadn't gotten involved and that has had impact for us and I think that's inescapable do you think investment opportunities are likely to improve from this point forward where you will see the opportunity the the possibility of making elevated returns again or are we sort of here now and here for the time being well you tell me will the will affect the right to be the buyer on every transaction in which case prices don't ever have to go down in theory you know you'll be better said in theory there's no difference between theory and practice but in practice there is but let's let's talk about the future in a serious way so I mentioned that the rating agencies believe and the investment banks that between fifteen and twenty five or so percent of the high-yield bonds outstanding will default that's roughly four hundred billion dollars that's a lot to buy in April I believe there were 19 defaults or bankruptcies and I believe that's the greatest in history greatest single month in history and we're just getting going you know the defaults and bankruptcies largely occur when companies run out of cash and the fact that 19 occurred in the first full month of the crisis and that the crisis has months more to run tells me there'll be more defaults in bankruptcy and there as I mentioned before there are large highly levered companies and investment vehicles that the government and fed rescue program is not likely to reach and take care of so we believe there will be plenty and you know it it boggles the mind to think that we're going to have a crisis of the magnitude of this one and not have fallout and typically we have been able to profit from that fallout so is that to say that while oaktree was buying aggressively in march less so now it may yet become a more aggressive buyer in the months ahead absolutely I mean they you know like they say in in the football game we take what they give us and the greater the the dislocation usually the greater the bargains which means the greater our buying we think that there's a substantial opportunity ahead