저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
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한줄 결론: 피터 린치는 주식은 장기적으로 기업 이익 성장에 따라 오르므로 2002년 시점에도 주식 비중을 유지하라고 주장한다. 시장 원칙: 린치는 50년 전이나 지금이나 같은 투자 원칙이 적용된다고 보며, 보유 종목은 이유를 설명할 수 있어야 한다고 강조한다. 투자 선택지: 머니마켓펀드 약 1.7%, 10년 국채 약 4.7%(세금 40% 가정)보다 향후 10년 주식이 더 나을 것이라고 주장하며, 주식 비중은 개인 판단이라고 말한다. 나이별 주식 비중 공식은 싫다고 한다. 기업 가치: 주식은 복권이 아니라 기업의 지분이며, 기업 이익이 10~20년간 늘면 주가도 오른다. 기업 이익은 과거 30년간 약 40배 늘었고 주식시장도 그만큼 올랐다고 말한다. 신뢰 위기: 월드컴, 앤더슨 사태는 실제 문제지만 시간이 지나면 회복되며, 처벌과 감시 강화로 이사회가 더 신중해질 것이라 본다. 청렴성은 법으로 강제할 수 없다고 말한다. 경기 전망: 미국 경제는 강하며 과거 9번의 침체 때 고용 감소는 평균 약 2% 수준이었고, 이번 침체는 상대적으로 약하다고 본다. 일본식 장기 불황과는 다르며, 미국 경제에 베팅하는 것을 피하지 말라고 한다. 정부의 재정적자는 경기 완충 역할을 한다고 평가한다. 기술주: 2000년대 초 기술주는 95% 폭락한 종목도 있을 만큼 위험하며, 기업을 이해하지 못하면 투자하지 말아야 한다고 경고한다. 기업 재무구조(부채·현금) 분석을 강조한다. 매도 원칙: 매도는 보유 이유가 사라졌거나 경기순환주가 호황 정점에 달했을 때 하라고 말한다. 토이저러스·홈디포를 너무 일찍 팔아 큰 기회를 놓친 경험을 언급한다. 투자 습관: 투자 기간이 짧으면 실패하며, 자금이 1년 내 필요하면 주식에 투자하면 안 된다고 본다. 분산투자 펀드도 한 부문에 몰리면 손실을 본다고 말한다. 과거 비교: 현재 하락장은 1990년 걸프전, 1981~82년 고금리·실업 침체, 1973~74년 니프티50 붕괴와 유사하다고 본다.
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and now let's go over and meet tonight's special guest Peter Lynch Peter welcome hello Kate happy to have your minor environment fantastic Peter Lynch is an authentic Hall of Fame investor under his management from may 1977 to may 1990 the fidelity Magellan fund was the best performing mutual fund in the world since then he has stayed active as a writer teacher and philanthropist while also serving as vice chairman of fidelity management and research Peter many viewers want to know whether this market is totally different whether your old view that people should find buy and hold good stocks is no longer applicable what do you think I think the same rules applied 50 years ago applied five years ago apply 20 years from now yeah first of all you have to know what your own whether it's a fund or stock and have a reason for it and the odd B I'll explain to an eleven-year-old in two minutes or less why o Mnet's and this suckers going up is not a good reason I've tried that one that's not doesn't work speak to the question of trust which party just expressed considerable concern about it I did at the opening what do you think it's going to take to repair it time I think this is really terrible this week where you mention about WorldCom and Anderson I mean these are real problems but you just have to have faith I mean we've had this before I think it's going to take time to heal this is very serious what do you think the antidote is to make sure we get rid of these abuses I think you know people will be punished for it and they'll be be surveillance I think Board of Directors is gonna be more careful Inc this is what's happened that if you've had an incredible economic boom a lot of easy money around people push the envelope it's to say out it's a you can't legislate integrity what would you say to investors now say Peter everything I own is going down it's been going down now for a couple of years people keep saying we're at a bottom should I get out and going to see these or coal bars and opium or whatever why basically you look now you have three choices that if your investor you can put your money on money market fun and getting one seven one five one six and it's taxed at 40% rate bring about a ten-year Treasury and get for seven that's taxed at 40% rate or you can have some equities and I think stocks over the next 10 years will do a lot better than four seven or one seven so I would have some money money now it's up to the person decide how much they won't have in the stock market for some people ten percent is aggressive for some people fifty percent is the right amount it's a personal decision and you can't go by these rules that if you twenty five you should be a hundred percent and if you forty five you should be fifty percent if you're sixty it should be zero and it's burping a lot I know what the rules aren't people that's 60 but they I hate those rules I think they're pathetic why are you confident that Sox will be a lot higher in ten years well they're not lottery tickets I mean when you own a stock it's a share of a company and I think company's gonna make a lot more money in ten years a lot more money in twenty years and that's that's why they go out that's the only reason some companies don't do well Xerox has make a lot less money and they did 30 years ago it's a lot less a lot most more companies are it doesn't work speak to the question of trust which party just expressed considerable concern about it I did at the opening what do you think it's going to take to repair it time I think this is really terrible this week where you mention about worldcom and Anderson I mean these are real problems but it you just have to have faith I mean we've had this before I think it's going to take time to heal this is very serious what do you think the antidote is to make sure we get rid of these abuses I think you know people will be punished for it and they'll be beus surveillance I think board of directors is gonna be more careful in this what's happening if you've had an incredible economic boom a lot of easy money around people push the envelope it's sad it's a you can't legislate integrity what would you say to investors now say Peter everything I own is going down it's been going down now for a couple of years people keep saying we're at a bottom right should I get out and going to see these or gold bars and opium or whatever why basically you look now you have three choices I think your investor you can pretty money and money market fun and getting one seven one five one six and it's taxed at 40% rate or goodbye 10-year Treasury and get four seven that's taxed at 40% rate or you can have some equities and I think stocks over the next ten years will do a lot better than four seven or one seven so I would have some my money now it's up to the person decide how much they won't have the stock market for some people ten percent is aggressive for some people fifty percent is the right mindset personal decision and you can't go by these rules that if you twenty five you should be a hundred percent and if you're forty five you should be fifty percent if you're sixty you should be zero and it's burping a lot I know what the rules aren't people at sixty but they I hate those rules I think they're pathetic why are you confident that Sox will be a lot higher in ten years well they're not lottery tickets I mean when you own a stock it's a share of a company and I think company's gonna make a lot more money in ten years a lot more money in twenty years and that's that's why they go out that's the only reason some companies don't do well see rachis make a lot less money and they did 30 years ago it's a lot less a lot more companies earning a lot more mine they were and that's why stocks go up corporate profits is gonna forty fold since we're word to stock markets up forty fold it's twenty five years since you started running Magellan you have been director of research for fidelity you had been with them since I guess 69 what are the most conspicuous mistakes you've seen investors make well I think not looking at the balance sheet and it's mistake I've made if you look at you know if you look at a person's balance sheet you look to see what the assets they on their houses they own a house they own a car what debt they haven't take that away that's what your net worth is you should do that at a company and I seen I've seen investors look at companies it may be let's say looking at two companies are very depressed three chat four dollars a share but one companies and they're each losing a couple million dollars a quarter one company is a hundred million in cash and no debt and one company has no cash and a hundred million of debt they're about to blow taps in the second company so yeah and you could do this if you get through eighth grade math and get anywhere near eight and eight equals sixteen you can do this look at a company's financial position it's impossible go bankrupt you don't have any debt I mean you get the Irving G Thalberg Lifetime Achievement where I think they're bad manager I mean how could you do that when you were actively managing money you presumably under the same pressures as other fund managers to show performance results did that incline you to sell too quickly sometimes I think my greatest mistakes are probably you know it's funny in a stock all you can lose his honor percent I've done that and your great mistakes is selling a good company and that doubles then it triples and quadruples because you make a lot of mistakes and so's ones that go up tenfold I call the ten baggers since are my mistakes just saying oh my god this stock is too high and I was wrong and you had to figure out what inning am I in this baseball game I sold Toys R Us way too early it went up twenty fold after I sold I did the same thing at Home Depot those are part my two greatest mistakes ever made when should you sell well you oughtta find out why you bought a stock if you're saying it's a cyclical company and they're doing poorly and they're doing awful you wait till things are getting better and they're doing terrific and then you sell it well where the growth company have to say Walmart escapes ten years have them in public you coulda bought the stock and made five hundred times your money you say store only in fifteen percent the United States and you could think it's safe why can't they go to seventeen why can't they go nineteen we can do two twenty three so for next four decades gonna run the country you have to save yourself in this stock I have a ten year story at twenty years three I'll be able to write that down and follow that that's what I do with the company and that's your decision that's how you sell it we have a novel element from many investors today in the trust issue we also have security problems that we didn't traditionally have in America have they changed the way you pick them believe in stocks no I you still buy a company and you buy company to grow and if it's a textile company or it's huh what krons company your software company you better understand what they do and and if they do well the stock will do well no matter what happens to market if the Dow Jones today was a thousand or five hundred you had made a lot of money McDonald's you had made a lot of money Johnson Johnson you wanna made a lot of money in Gillette these companies earnings have gone up a lot the last thirty years and if the mark was fifty thousand you were to lost money in Burlington history so I recommend that in 1969 I think it's I think it's gone from thirty four to two with no stock splits these are earnings Montera well your modesty actually makes the important point which is people with the best batting averages in the world dump out a thousand I sometimes get angry mail particularly there in bear market saying so-and-so recommended such-and-such and it went down well how often did you come up with a clinker well this is a funny business you don't happy right even five times out of ten if the times you're right you make a double and triple it offsets all those times you lose twenty or thirty percent so when you buy psycho says self how much can I lose and how much can I make and you ought to be able to make a lot is it stocks are risky I mean look look how much we've lost an AT&T LeCompte real essence Xerox C's for quality companies you know you could lose a lot in stock you guys say self how much can I make because I want to buy a stock if I'm right I'm gonna make a double or triple does your own confidence ever get shaken every day I think the markets gonna go up I keep calling a lot of my companies I keep calling the company you once said to me that you spent all your time looking at companies analyzing them as businesses and you didn't spend a lot of time worrying about the economy do you have a view in the economy now well I look at the economy I look historically economy I don't look at the future I mean that's weather forecasting I look but I look at the economy and backwards see what's happening I need kind of looks very good to me right now the housing market looks terrific any company auto market looks good the consumer looks good it's a lot of good elements to it and if this is we've had nine recession since where were two and they've averaged usually about a two percent decline in the workforce you know it's terrible there's what a million have people have lost their jobs in this decline but ever only be about a 1% decline in the workforce so so far there's been a mild recession has been mild in technology has been mild and telecom has been mild for you know if the company's making fiber optics but it's been up it's been a normal recession and I would never bet against the American economy it's powerful you were never a big fan of the technology Boop or you know I've actually started looking I'm a little early on these things I start looking at anjana in February and I've been researching the companies um they're very complex because they're they're there if there's a thousand technology companies are all a little bit different they're not like a bunch of banks they're very similar so have to be careful I'm looking coming sir son close to cash an industry leader and they're down 95 percent although our panel is a little different too let's turn it over to them starting with money swag let's talk about a little different market first we had a bubble here in Nasdaq had collapsed it went down about as much as the Japanese market did the economy is iffy some people are comparing our situation at to Japan god forbid 10 years ago what do you think well I think that's a very interesting correlation I mean the Japanese market and economies been incredibly weak they've had a 12-year recession but there you had a real problem thank you system you basically had let's say average building a commercial building one from 50 million to five million a bank then made 110 percent loan against that a five and fifty million dollar loan then the building went back to 50 and they're stuck with a $400 load and the government never cut taxes that actually raised taxes I mean they did everything wrong and the companies didn't cut costs they just sort of sat there hope things would get better we are cut companies act fast they start cutting costs real quickly and and our government is fortunately this is rare in our history we went into this recession running a surplus first time ever assists are supposed to be in our country which have run surpluses a good times and then the bad times we run deficits well guess what it's working they didn't have that in Japan and Japan now it's wasted twelve years I don't think I said has all I don't just look to me at all like Japan we're near we're starting to get better already Pirlo ask you a question about these are the typical investor mistakes and when you started in the business I know the average investor held mutual funds for you know 16 17 years and now it's down to less than two years do you think that's one of the problems of time arises got to short well I think also what they might they have to say what do I want do I need the money in a year mean the money five years you're terrible investors need the money in the year if you need for college to send your kids there or a wedding you're not gonna be a good investor then you have to do some homework and say should I have 10 growth funds that's silly you say what do I want I want two or three girl funds what's my mix I like and you want to say that is aggressive you know some people aggressive is fifty percent so I would say people and some people might want to have foreign funds it's like a menu at a restaurant they should look it over decide what they like and then stay with it and if one group does well for two or three years the next bunch of money they had to maybe they should add to the group that's underperforming over time different categories work out to be about the same so you get whipsawed if you're all in one area does poorly for three years you said get me out of that you go into some other area and that does badly for three years you could be in it forever and there make money Peter does this market remind you of any of that you've been through before I would say 90 the 90 bear market is very similar in many ways I mean think Saddam Hussein takes over Kuwait and we sent 5,000 troops to Saudi Arabia all the people saying it's gonna be Iraq's that'll largest army in the world's me another Vietnam we had a recession we'd always banks in trouble right now our banks are in terrific shape which would make major positive so that was a very scary environment and we had defaults I mean it was an ugly environment every was a very similar market and I think 81-82 was ugly to weed you know 20% primary double-digit inflation double June and unemployment so those are scary markets and then top it all off the 73 74 market did you remember the nifty 50 we had that we had it in technology stocks so we had 95% declines and you know we combined three markets into one special case been very fast we have less than a minute left those who were who are less sanguine about the economy than you've just expressed often cite the recent declines in the dollar and the shift from surplus to deficit as negatives you seem to indicate that their positives why why do I think the government running a deficit is terrific that's way it should work I mean when they're running a 200 billion dollar surplus which they were they're taking 200 billion out of the economy now the government's running a hundred billion dollar deficit it's pumping a hundred billion in it's a cushion so you don't see a double-dip recession coming I don't know I can't break the future that's a healthy thing to have buffers an economy we've had nine recessions world war two we've got out every one of them the system works if you could give one sentence of advice to scare investors right now what would it be I think you ought to see some kids you know hire an eight-year-old harvest a six-year-old just watch them they don't know who Alan Greenspan is they know about the shape of the yield curve they're optimistic about the future will be fine for the next 3040 years let's hope you're right Peter courage and persistence they've worked in the past there we do have to stop with thanks to Peter Lynch and our panelists next week we'll look into what's really ahead for the US economy with the renowned financial wizard who his peers consider the guy most likely to know ed Harmon who for an incredible 22 years running has been voted the single best economist in Wall Street when he talks big money listens meanwhile this has been Lewis food crisis Wall Street goodnight
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