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In a 1996 report, you noted that for most investors, the best way to own stocks is through an index fund with minimal fees. Two questions. First, there are many different index funds containing different baskets of stocks. What criteria would you use or what would you advise when choosing an appropriate index fund?
Second, the S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio is well above its historical average. What should an investor use as a guideline when buying this index? Well, I would say that as far as an index fund goes, I would just choose a very broad index. I would choose the S& P 500, provided I don't invest all my money at once.
If I were going to invest money in an index fund in relatively equal parts over 20 or 30 years, I would choose I would choose a fund, and I know that Vanguard has very low expenses. I'm sure there are many others with the same conditions. I just haven't studied this market, but I would be very cautious about the costs involved, since all they do for you is buy this index.
I think people who buy these index funds will, on average, get better results than those who buy funds with higher expenses, because it's just a matter of math. If you have a very high percentage of funds managed by institutions, and many institutions charge a lot of money for it, and others charge a little.
They will get very similar gross results, but different net results. And I recommend that all of you read John. John Bogle has written several books in the last 5 years, and I, I can't name them, but they are very good books, and anyone who invests in funds should read these books before investing, or if you have already invested, you should still read these books, and that's all you need to know about investing in funds.
So, I would choose a broad index, but I would n't invest a large amount in one go. I would do this over a period of time, because the whole point of index funds is that you say, "I think American business is going to do pretty well over a long period of time, but I don't know enough to pick winners, and I don't know enough to pick a good time." There is nothing wrong with this.
I don't know enough to pick a good time. Every now and then I think I know enough to pick a winner, but that doesn't happen often. And I definitely can't pick winners by just looking through the whole list and saying, "This is a winner, and this isn't." and so on. So, the main thing to do if you think business is a smart place for your money in the long term is to invest over the long term and not make implicit bets by investing a large amount at a certain point.
As for the criteria for when it's worth doing or not worth doing, I don't think there are any great criteria for that. I do n't think the price/ earnings ratio, you know, determines anything. I don't think the price/book value or price/ sales ratios are decisive. I don't think there's a single indicator that I or anyone else could give you that would indicate that now is a great time to buy stocks, or vice versa, or anything like that.
It's just not that easy. That's why you go for an index fund and buy over a period of time. It's not that simple. You won't learn this by reading magazines. You would n't know that, you know, by watching TV. You would like to have something that says: if the P/E ratio is 12 or below, buy, and if it is 25 or above, sell.
It doesn't work that way. This is a more complicated matter than it seems. It can't be that simple if you think about it. So, by buying an index fund, you are protecting yourself from not knowing the answers to these questions, but you are believing that you can succeed over time without knowing them if you are aware of this fact.
And, you know, if you were a young person and you were going to save some of your income for a long time, I would advise you to just choose a very broad index. I would probably choose the S&P 500, because if you start going beyond that, you start thinking that you should invest in small- cap stocks, large-cap stocks, or some foreign stocks.
And once you do that, you know, you're entering a game that, frankly, you're not ready for. That would be my recommendation. Charlie? I think his second concern is that common stocks could become so expensive that you wouldn't be able to make much money buying index funds. Uh-huh. I didn't think I would live to see it become a possibility, but now I think it could happen.
But. I guess you mean that they can reach that level and will have to stay there for a long time. can be there and stay there for a long time. In that case, you might earn 3 or 4%, but would there be anything better under those circumstances ? And please pass the peanut grillage. Well, in Japan, where something similar happened, the return on owning a good index over the past 13 years or so has been negative.
Could something so terrible happen here? I mean, is this even possible? I think the answer is yes. But the choice in Japan, of course, is to have bank deposits or to own Japanese bonds at 0–1% or 1.5%. So if rates on everything are getting really low, which means stocks are selling for really high, then that just means you're living in a different world than it was 20 or 30 years ago, when capital generally paid better.
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