저자: MichaelBurry · 외국인
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마이클 버리는 인플레이션이 민주주의를 무너뜨릴 수 있는 장기적 위험이며 투자자는 장기적으로 화폐가치가 0으로 간다고 가정해야 한다고 주장한다. 그는 2005년 서브프라임 모기지 붕괴를 예측해 골드만삭스·도이치뱅크 등과 신용부도스왑(CDS)으로 공매도 포지션을 구축했던 경험을 회고한다. 당시 위기 신호는 시장이 너무 늦게 드러냈고, 버냉키·폴슨 같은 당국자들도 상황을 과소평가했다고 비판한다. 영상 제작자는 버리의 발언을 인용하며 2022년 현재 경기침체 진입, 재고 누적에 따른 기업 실적 악화, 실업수당 청구 증가, 장단기 금리 역전(2-10년 스프레드 역전) 등을 근거로 디플레이션과 대규모 침체 가능성을 강조한다. 또한 금 가격과 구리 가격의 하락이 인플레이션 둔화 신호라고 해석하며, 나스닥·S&P500의 저점 형성 시점과 성장주의 리더십 회복 가능성을 언급한다. 연준이 장단기 금리 역전 같은 선행 신호보다 후행 지표인 인플레이션에 집중하고 있어 방향 전환이 늦어질 수 있다는 점이 핵심 리스크로 제시된다. 버리는 미국 재정 적자와 국채 수요 구조에 대해 장기적 우려를 표명하며, 정부의 국채 조달 문제가 단기에 드러나기는 어렵다고 본다. 자막 일부가 자동인식으로 훼손되어 발언 맥락이 불완전할 수 있다.
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i'm so smart i was definitely 50th percentile here at vanderbilt no higher um i think if you just pay attention you'll get a warning sign heck you know when i figured out the subprime thing i had to do it off human behavior and and various sources of witchcraft wizardry inflation is a very serious subject you can argue it's the way democracies die so it's a huge danger once you've got a populist that learns it can vote itself money if you look at the roman republic they inflated the currency steadily for hundreds of years and eventually the whole damn roman empire collapsed so it's the biggest long runs danger we have probably apart from nuclear war the safe assumption for an investor is that over the next 100 years the currency's going to zero that's my working hypothesis welcome to the crypto teacher and guys you know i come back with that video just to make you think and we have kathy woods stating that we're already in a recession and we've had plenty of fun managers say that we're in a recession also some say we're about to go into a depression but guys what did she state walmart's inventory what i had stated a week to two weeks ago letting you know anytime you have walmart saying that they're getting rid of inventory the same way as target they're cutting back they're only going to be given what the customers actually want because they have the data and because we have inflation people are spending less and they can advertise to what you actually need not just one and as she stated employment insurance claims are going to be going up guys we know these big layoffs are definitely coming as the affairs shrink liquidity we know now they're going to be doing a 15 tax on corporations plus cutting the loopholes what do you think that's going to happen but what does she also say that i've been telling you deflation because she knew in the fourth industrial revolution all this automation that's all she's invested in is a fourth industrial revolution automation robots algorithms drones virtual healthcare and then she also talks about the inverted yield curve and guys we know that's also a signal the 2 in the 10 is definitely inverted now we know about the last economic collapse especially in the housing market and we have michael barrett stating that he used witchcraft and wizardy and he went to vanderbilt and guys we know when it comes it has collapsed it was an inside job like he stated he tapped goldman sachs he tapped deutsche bank these credit default swaps don't work unless the big banks are involved and we know goldman sachs was betting on his own paper and we know warren buffett's moody's was rating f paper a paper it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that the housing market was going to crash and it definitely doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that we're going to go through a global collapse right now if you print 20 percent of all money in existence in one year you're headed for a collapse and remember the crypto teacher told you because he knows when it comes to the new world order it's all planned out you have a wonderful day are in the earning season or the economic data anything else that would make you waver in your conviction of the growth trade well what we do see in these earnings results is that we are in a recession and we've been calling for a recession for quite some time a lot of it based on excess inventory so we think this is an inventory-led recession and i think that's coming through loud and clear we're seeing advertisers cut back dramatically it seems like when walmart and target announced in may that they were loaded up with inventories and this was far above what they had expected and they were going to have to do something about it you know a lot of advertisers uh started cutting back cutting a budget saying okay this this is a possible recession uh indicator and as you know we've just gotten two quarters consecutive borders of negative real gdp growth but a lot of people still are fighting the notion that we're in a recession yeah certain people are fighting that notion a lot of economists like yourself there is a technical recession but then there's also what a lot of folks including fed chair jay powell says isn't necessarily recession they define it as a broad-based slowdown across a number of industries are you seeing that yeah i i think this is a recession and i think what the fed is really focused on is employment as a gauge uh employment is a lagging indicator the cpi the ppi all of those are lagging indicators if you look at initial unemployment insurance claims they're up 50 percent from the low so i do believe we're going to see some significant disappointment in the employment numbers moving ahead and i also think based on what we're seeing from gold gold the gold price actually peaked in august of 2020 many people don't know that and it's down near the low end of a range a two-year range that's an important inflation gauge and then copper price the copper price broke down it broke a one year trading range in the four to five dollars per pound range and it has come down hard so i think all these are signals that that inflation is going to come down it's going to come down significantly and that we're probably going to see some deflation and we've been calling for that for quite some time as well right i know you have and what how do you position your portfolio in a recession what has changed about the way that you're looking at growth stocks well typically growth stocks will outperform as we move towards the end of a bear market and an end of a recession because they're the new leadership as inflation and interest rates were going up we were facing incredible headwinds that started in february of 21 and it looks like at least so far uh that we bottomed on an intraday basis based on our flagship strategy um uh on may 12th and uh we actually bottomed before the nasdaq and the s p did the s p broke down to new lows after that uh so that was an early signal that we might be turning the corner here but i think to really turn the corner the fed does need to change its spots it's getting all kinds of signals that it should like an inverted yield curve and yet i think it's paying attention to lagging indicators of inflation determined not to be blamed for letting the genie out of the bottle and causing another 70s like in inflation of the world credit derivatives on an underlying asset could be worth multiple orders of magnitude more than the asset itself is worth because all all asset-backed securities all asset-backed derivative securities settled in cash pay as you go that was the secret sauce of the doom disney machine and so the crisis unfolded with the market providing a signal far too late even so fed chairman ben bernanke treasury secretary hank paulson continued to underestimate the situation i was able to i was just like that apoplectic secretary secretary paulson now claims that even if he knew what was going to happen he couldn't have done anything about it may be true after all he would say i just joined the treasury in the summer of 2006 but he came from the top ceo job at goldman sachs and once treasury secretary he wasn't so impotent he orchestra orchestrated the once unthinkable government takeovers of aig fannie mae freddie mac absolutely unthinkable just a few years ago the bailouts of wall street he was anything but an impotent tool and he had he had a running start unlike any other but if he truly felt that way this is an absolutely devastating commentary on how our government works in fact as books and articles on the crisis proliferate it becomes clear that at nearly every failed institution and every relevant department of government there was someone whose insight was every bit as good as mine and in many cases better however none zero zero we're in the top job so seeing the economy on the verge of collapse i did the logical thing i sought to profit from it into how wall street really works i called different wall street firms banks with which i had prior relationships due to my trading of distressed debt i asked them to i tried to convince them to trade in this market with me initially i initially i found no takers this was march of 2005.
the whole effort was complicated because it was important to me that the security this instrument that i'd like to use to short the market would be standardized such that if i bought a credit default swap from one dealer counter party i could easily trade that credit default swap to another dealer counter party bespoke one-off contracts were full of contract and counterparty risk that i would not tolerate nevertheless by may of 2005 standardized contracts were on the cusp of becoming reality in may of 2005 may 19th of 2005 we agreed to our first trades shorting the subprime mortgage market with deutsche bank we worked with the soon we worked on these soon to be standardized contracts a bit in the first days of june 05 the first trades that officially went through we would ultimately use nine different wall street dealer counterparties to be clear well first i'd say lehman and bear i avoided for obvious reasons even back then goldman sachs featured very prominently early on they were a very anxious crew to be clear these credit default swaps that i'm buying act would rise in value as mortgages were written off and the value of these tranches fell tax our population is uh our basically tap is eclipsed by the amount of our interest on our debt basically makes us a ponzi scheme of some sort and i think that's the point i think it's very hard to pick that spot um there's a long long history this is one of those things i wish i think our we're cut our leaders our government kind of in this teenage state right now there's this long history we can rely on for a more mature view of how things work and i think there's a long history of governments lasting a whole lot longer than they should and you know a lot that we'd rather not have happen certainly all the dictators seem to get it done so um i think uh you know it's it's difficult to time that very precisely i think we'll have a warning though i think a smart analyst or i shouldn't say that because i don't even think i'm so smart i was definitely 50th percentile here at vanderbilt no higher um i think if you just pay attention you'll get a warning sign heck you know when i figured out the subprime thing i had to do it off human behavior and and various sources of witchcraft wizardry in the in l5 by earlier six it was apparent in the actual filings that were being made every month and you just had to look at that and it was really easy and so i think you'll you'll see that if you're thinking oh one day a treasury auction will fail and then i'll have you know i don't see that happening because i think we have enough domestic consumers of debt including including the fed but including military pensions whatever social security is there that it's too easy for the government to hide that and i don't know that you can wait for that we're going to a different economy and we're going to be learning more about that as we go but clearly we're we're learning that things can be done from remote locations we're learning that technology can replace people even more than we thought we're not going back to the same economy we're going we're recovering but to a different economy and it'll be one that is more leveraged to technology and i worry that that is going to make it even more difficult than it was for for many workers in silicon valley and my friends who work in technology know that what we did to the manufacturing workers we are now going to do to the retail workers the call center workers the fast food workers the truck drivers and then even bookkeepers accountants uh insurance agents lawyers and on and on through the economy so what happened to the manufacturing workers a very clear sign of this effort and china has big plans for this they intend to seed um their digital yuan into the global environment by giving it away to visitors at next winter's olympics when they arrive at the airport they're going to get you want digital wallets they're going to receive digital u1 they're going to use it throughout their visits to beijing and then they're going to take it back to their home countries they've seen this as a huge advantage why because who controls the underlying protocols who controls the underlying standards of the future of money will control the future powerful person in the world is the storyteller the storyteller says the vision values and agenda of an entire generation to come steve jobs and guys you know i truly believe in this when you look at the new world order they're the storytellers and that's the reason why i wrote my new wrote order book but guys now it's time to change the current generation and i wrote three kids books you know i love the trinity because i understand the power of that senate so i have three books we have an opportunity to change the generation to educate not just me but i want to show you that i take action on a daily basis and i want you to take action on a daily basis whether it's your job whether it's in your community we have an opportunity right now to educate the masses i posted this on my twitter account please share but this is a short clip of the three books there's going to be a clothing line and action figure please get these books for your kids nephews cousins friends so therefore we can start the re-education now because as we see the fourth industrial revolution foundation is definitely here robots algorithms drones taking humanity out the picture we have to re-educate but let's get into the video part one king joshua and drama team take the villain part two it's mandatory to get part one part two and part three of this series it's time to re-educate generation z
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