저자: MikeNorman · 외국인
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결론: 레이 달리오 등 월가 거물들이 연준 때문에 시장이 자유롭지 않다고 우는소리를 하지만, 진짜로 그렇게 믿는다면 최고의 내부정보인데도 돈을 못 버는 것은 모순이라는 주장. 달리오 비판: 브리지워터를 정리하고 패밀리오피스로 전환한다는 소식을 언급하며, 중앙은행이 시장과 경제를 주도한다고 불평하는 것을 비꼼. 수익 모순 지적: 연준이 시장을 띄운다고 믿으면서도 매수하지 않거나 숏 포지션으로 손실을 본다는 점을 지적하며, 이들이 헤지펀드 운용 능력보다 자본 조달·마케팅 능력으로 거부가 된 것이라고 평가. 재정정책 강조: 통화정책만 언급하고 재정정책은 무시한다고 비판. 2020년 재정지출이 전년 대비 크게 늘었고 이것이 경제를 떠받쳤다고 주장. 향후 전망: 몇 주 뒤 세금·임대료·모기지 부담이 다시 오면서 재정 절벽(fiscal cliff)이 올 수 있으나 추가 입법은 보이지 않는다고 언급. 자유시장 비판: 완전한 자유시장은 환상이며 모든 사회는 정책과 규제 위에 있다고 주장. 특정 종목·자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음.
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hey everybody what's up it is Thursday July 2nd two more days to July 4th hope everybody is doing well so we have another one of these crybaby this time it's a big fish big fish hedge fund guy Ray Dalio some of you probably know who he is he ran Bridgewater hedge fund by the way I read the other day that he's I think he's closing down his hedge fund and he's going into he's just making the whole thing a family office which is like his own money that's what George Soros did a lot of these guys you know I mean they made a lot of money maybe the markets are just beating them up and they're like you know what the hell with this I'm just gonna run my own money out of a family office or whatever but that's not what I want to talk about so he's another one of these guys now lying in and crying about oh it's you know it's the central banks it's the fan it's the driver of the markets and the driver of the economy there's no more free market there's no more you know they're the capital markets are not free anymore so it's so like when I hear this I'm thinking like so like if you know that and if you believe that to be true then that's like the greatest inside information you could ever have I mean think about it and you should be listening to these guys or you should be reading their words and having the same reaction as I'm having these big huge hedge fund managers or these these you know really important Wall Street analysts crying about oh it's not a free market anymore the Fed the central banks are the drivers of the economy like if you know that and if you believe that to be true so like what's the problem dude so just that means you know you know how their actions are going to affect the economy now of course they're wrong in there understanding and I'm not gonna get into that that's a whole you know they're not into mmt they don't understand mmt they don't understand the impact of policy monetary policy they don't even know the distinction between monetary policy and fiscal policy hang on a second yes a friendly local ambulance services okay that's another thing by the way as long as I mentioned that let me repeat like to these people it's all about the Fed or it's all about the central bank like never once will you hear them mention fiscal like never mind the fact that we're already like five point one trillion which is one point three trillion over where we were last year at this time which by the way last year was a record spending year I mean they just completely ignore that but it's incredible to watch these guys and by the way if they're probably crying you know why they're crying because they lost money because they're frustrated as hell and even though they're saying they're throwing their arms up in the air saying oh oh it's the central banks that are driving the economy and there's no more free markets and no more capital markets like again dude if you know that to be true like that's the greatest gift you could ever have that is the most important inside information that you could ever have right I mean on the one hand they're crying that the Fed is right juicing up the market but they're not making money they're not making money when ostensibly they believe that to be true and they look at the market going up and they correlate that the Fed action so like if you know that how come you're not making a gazillion dollars so they are so confused it is unwanted us to like crying children these are mega billionaires and by the way don't think they're billionaires cuz they're geniuses in the market I mean that should be obvious by now I mean here's the guy crying about the Fed pushing them you know juice it up the market and he's just sitting there on his ass like well why don't you buy that if that's true if you know that to be true why don't you know he's losing money if you're managing like I think his hedge fund manages 180 billion or managed 180 billion of which he gets a 2% management fee so that's what three point six billion just in a management fee then against 20% of the profits so I mean even if he makes 1% what is that 1.8 billion and against 20% of that so I mean the guy's a billion if you're managing that much money you're a billionaire like quick and I mean these guys if they have a genius at all and I've said this in the past if they do have some kind of genius at all it's their ability to raise capital it's their marketing it's their networking it's you know all that stuff and I give him a lot of credit for that I don't have that and I think I'm a lot better than these guys and this is a hard business managing money look and I I i advise you know people through my service and there's times it gets stressful as hell and you don't want to hurt anybody and you don't want to have people lose money and you want to do the best for people including myself I've been training for 40 years and you know I make these mental game videos saying hey you've got to tough it out you got to get through hard times you got to push forward all the time you have to deal with discomfort so yeah that's a part of the game and I could see a guy who has made billions of dollars off of management fees or whatever say you know what screw it I'm at I'll run my own money but it's the crying and the whining that is I mean to me it's comical I don't know how you perceive it but like just think about it I mean here all these guys and there's there's a there's a litany up I mean it's not just Dalio I did a video and I did a podcast about you know they have big-name Wall Street analysts talking like this they have goulash is talking like this they have all of them like to them it's like the game is not fair because the market only goes and because the market only goes up because of the feds so like again if you know that to be true dude then why are you buying this is what I mean you gotta kind of laugh at this guy who runs that blog barstool sports I mean he gets it man he's like the market only goes up now I don't think he connects the dots between and by the way it's not the central banks if you want to know but you know that's their mythology that's their belief that is so ingrained in their mind and sometimes you could look at things and they look correlated but they're not really correlated like I went over an example yesterday about how you know if it's true that when the central bank's pump reserves into the system and it should also be true that when they take it out markets go down but I gave you an example yesterday where you know it went up a hundred per dollar it went up well fifty percent over a period of time and we had the biggest reduction in reserves in history so all that stuff is not true but they believed it to be true and they're not losing money because they bought the market and it went down when the Fed was pumping right they're not losing money because that they're losing money because they're going short or they're staying out of the market when at the same time they're crying that the Fed is pushing up the market and the market has been going up but it's been going up because all of the fiscal the economy has massively increased incomes and savings and it has floated the economy when we should have been in a major major depression so the the policy reaction the fiscal policy reaction was exactly correct they need to continue that now but you know in another week or so we're all gonna have to pay taxes and walking up to pay rent so we're all gonna have two big mortgages again and all that stuff is going to be a fiscal hit I don't see them making any new you know bill passing any new legislation for that I mean that's happening that's that's a fiscal cliff that we're about to follow but so yeah Ray Dalio get it thinking anymore there's no first of all this notion of a free market that that's just fantasy that's like saying okay we don't have societies we don't have political systems we don't have laws and regulations we don't have policy we don't have policymaking I mean in every country and from from the freest country if you want to call it us or whoever Hong Kong - the most repressed what North Korea then there's policy at the top that's the overarching thing this notion of the free market like we're living in some kind of a jungle world where whatever goes yeah whatever happens goes it's just that's a fantasy man and these people are crying because they're so frustrated and they're so clueless and it's like it's funny because again if you know that to be true then why are you crying then just by like according to their thinking like they should just be standing there with a bushel basket waiting for the money to fall in because they're literally saying the feds pushing up the money and I'm pushing up the markets and I don't like it yeah you're sitting on your ass doing nothing I mean it's it's crazy hey folks go to my website pitbull economics calm learn something learn mmt don't be like these guys take their money take their money all the links right here in the description below have a great fourth of July bye bye
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