저자: MikeNorman · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 연준의 대규모 자산매입으로 지급준비금이 급증했으나 은행 대출은 자기자본(BIS·레버리지 비율) 제약 때문에 오히려 막혀 있다. 연방재정 흐름 회복: 3월 하루 약 200억 달러이던 재무부 지출이 주말 기준 약 500억 달러로 2.5배 증가했고, 실업수당은 전년 대비 52억 달러 늘었다. 의료 지출도 증가 중이다. 골드만삭스는 시장 바닥을 선언하며 기존 부정 전망을 뒤집었는데, 진행자는 이것이 재정 흐름 상승 시점과 맞물렸다고 주장했다. 은행 대출 제약 논리: 보완적 레버리지 비율(Tier1 자본/총자산, 최소 3%, 은행 내부 목표 약 6~10%)에서 분모인 총자산에 준비금이 포함되므로, 준비금이 늘면 비율이 떨어져 은행은 자본을 확충하거나 자산을 매각해야 한다. 제이미 다이먼(JP모건 CEO) 주주 서한 인용: 은행들이 자본 규제 한도에 가까워 더 이상 대출 여력이 크지 않다고 언급했다는 것이다. 진행자는 대출 제약은 자본이며 준비금이 아니라고 강조했다. 주류 견해 비판: 준비금 공급이 은행 대출을 늘린다는 믿음(연준, ECB, 일본은행 포함)은 틀렸다고 주장했다. 연준의 정책 방향도 역효과라고 평가했다. 연준은 금리를 설정하고 그 금리를 유지하는 데 집중해야 하며, 지난 9월 단기금리 급등은 준비금이 지나치게 줄었기 때문이라고 설명했다. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산에 대한 구체적 가격 예측은 없음. 영상은 유료 구독 서비스 홍보를 포함한다. 대상 자산 언급: 대출·은행 관련 논의이며 금융주에 간접적 함의가 있을 뿐 개별 자산 방향 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
all right everybody are you doing it it's Monday April 13th as you can see I am not wearing the mask anymore because our governor here Andrew Cuomo said as far as New York is concerned the worst is over so I'm taking him at his word and no more mask anyway I have a lot of video footage of me wearing the mask to symbolize the ordeal we have been going through New York of course the epicenter of the pandemic here in the United States anyway you know all that I've said that so many times and I'm glad to hear that the worst is over now I got a lot to talk about today and hopefully I can do it all in one video first a few announcements number one it is Monday so that means I just sent out the new edition of mmt trader if you want to get that go to my website pitbull economics comm and sign up for a 30-day free trial the link is right here in the description number two and I don't know if I mentioned it while I didn't because I didn't do a video on Friday but fiscal flows are finally starting to pick up we have seen or I have I have seen and I've been talking about this and sending out the detailed information and charts and data to my subscribers but there was a very noticeable pick up in Thursday Wednesday Thursday and Friday you could see it on the daily Treasury statement we went from an average daily spending by the Treasury of about 20 billion a day in March to almost 50 billion a day at the end of last week so when a two and a half time increase in spending we have unemployment benefits now at 5.2 billion over last year now that ramped up in 10 days it went from negative year over here two up 5.2 billion in ten days so that was a pretty rapid increase and there are other items in spending that are picking up mostly concentrated in the health area health spending so that's good that's positive and interestingly Goldman Sachs which had a negative outlook for the market up until basically today flipped its position around and said we have hit bottom the market has bottomed and it is interesting because their reversal their flip flop coincided with that pick up in the fiscal flow so I I don't I can't prove this but it almost seems like somebody over there is reading my stuff because I've been on top of that I've been the one talking about that I monitor that every single day so we see the fiscal flows on a daily basis and that is you know that is the core of my analysis now here's the thing I want to talk about it and hopefully I can get to all the points that I want to mention if you go back if you've been following me for the last year actually more than a year I have been really the only one out there explaining how the feds monetary measures which have basically been asset purchases and dumping billions upon billions and now trillions of reserves into the banking system has been disruptive and also an impediment to loan growth and I explained that the banks are subject to regulatory constraints one of which is the supplemental leverage ratio and you can that that is calculated by taking tier 1 capital bank cap / consolidated assets and within those consolidated assets reserves are included and that ratio has to be three percent or greater okay and most banks internally keep that up around six percent some even ten percent so what happens is when the Fed dumps all these reserves into the banking system the denominator in that equation gets bigger and that leverage ratio shrinks to the point where it either approaches the minimum threshold or it goes below if it goes below the banks have to raise capital or they have to sell some existing assets which could be risk assets it could be you know loans it could be whatever trading assets whatever so and and here's the thing you know I've been basically the only one saying this but now we have comments from Jamie Dimon and I'll be happy to send these comments to anyone who would like to read them just again go to my website sign up for a 30-day free trial of mmt trader or you can just google Jamie Dimon if you don't want to sign up you can google Jamie Dimon and read his comments he made comments to shareholders saying that the bank's his bank and other banks basically he was generalizing the banks they are at the limit of what their capital allows them to do insofar as lending is concerned now remember Capital Bank capital is the only constraint on lending it's not about reserves and here is where the interesting part comes in because so many people they're all out there the quacks and officials even within the Fed because I've seen them say things like we need to supply these reserve so the banks will lend more know jamie dimon who is a banker himself says the truth the reserves have become an impediment to further lending this is one of the problems with the SBA loans now that were part of the stimulus package you know the payroll Protection Plan which the banks are intermediaries in this they are of the ones providing the loans backed by the government the banks have seen their assets grow exponentially in the last four or five weeks mainly because of this enormous amount of reserve addition that has been created by the Fed through its asset purchases and they're maxed out with respect to their capital so you really I want you to really think about this because the mainstream view the prevailing view is that oh they're premium I defended bring money give it money to the banks they're pretty money that are gonna lend out all this money now because the better they're flush with resort know it's exactly the opposite and you don't have to take my word for it listen to Jamie Dimon he specifically says that regulatory changes are necessary he said his bank is not asking for a regulatory change he said they're well capitalized they're in a strong position but he did say we are basically at the upper limit of what we can lend now because the amount of capital we have which is sufficient under all regulatory guidelines is maxed out in relation to the amount of current assets that they have so you either have to add more capital like they did back in 2009 with the tarp remember the talk the Troubled Asset Relief Program where basically they fused the banks with more capital capital is the only constraint on bank lending so I really want you to understand this and I really want you to think about this because the the the prevailing view the mainstream view and I'm not just talking about the quacks out there or talk or we say pretty money I'm talking about people you know at the controls people at the central that look we could talk about the ECB we're the same belief is there we could talk about the Bank of Japan which is doing this for 20 years believing that flooding the banking system with reserves means that banks will lend more when in actuality that banks themselves the bankers themselves are saying we can't do it you maxed us out with respect to our capital with these trillions upon trillions of reserve additions now I'm the only one explaining this to you but this is reality and again we're living in this bizarro world where the people at the top the policymakers the ones who are supposed to know are doing the exact opposite of what they should be doing now what should the Fed be doing well yes it sets rates and once it sets a rate it should ensure that that rate is maintained and if it needs to add reserves or remove reserves to keep that rate sustained in most cases the central bank merely has to state a rate that it wants and the market will move to that rate but there have been instances in the past and we can go back to last September when remember the overnight rate was spiking but why did that happen it happened because the Fed brought reserve balances down so low it caused the system to be short but that's a whole other environment that we were in back then right now what's happening or what has happened over the past four or five weeks in response to the virus what the Fed believes that it is it is fighting the economic crash with these measures is in fact impeding the ability of banks to lend I'd be happy to go into this more with whoever wants to hear about it please go to my website pitbull economics comm sign up for a 30-day free trial of mmt trader I also talked about it in my report today see everybody tomorrow bye bye
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