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Good morning and welcome to the morning bell. I'm Robert joined by Lizzy and Steve. It's Tuesday, March 10th, 2026 and we have a lot to cover today. Lizzy, what are the main themes you're seeing in today's news? Thanks, Robert. Well, the dominant story continues to be the oil market volatility and its ripple effects across financial markets.
We're seeing oil prices slide after President Trump indicated the Iran war could be ending soon, which is providing some relief to markets that were spooked by the recent surge past $100 per barrel. The G7 energy ministers are meeting to try to steady the oil market and Saudi Aramco has been warning about catastrophic consequences if the Iran conflict drags on.
What's particularly interesting is how this is affecting different sectors. We're seeing a rotation back into risk assets as oil retreats with Bitcoin climbing back above 70,000 and stocks reversing earlier losses. On the corporate front, Bill Aman's Persing Square is making headlines with plans to raise up to10 billion dollars through an IPO on the New York Stock Exchange, which would be one of the larger investment vehicle listings we've seen.
There's also some concerning news about fuel shortages in Asia, forcing 4-day work weeks and school closures, which highlights just how serious the energy situation has become in certain regions. The market is really trying to balance two competing narratives right now. Relief that the conflict might be deescalating versus concerns about lasting damage to supply chains and energy infrastructure.
That's a significant development with the oil situation. How are you reading the market's interpretation of these mixed signals? Markets seem to be pricing in cautious optimism, but with a healthy dose of skepticism. The immediate reaction to Trump's comments about the war ending soon was positive. We saw the dollar weaken and oil pull back, which gave risk assets room to breathe.
But traders are being selective about where they're putting money to work. You're seeing strength in sectors that benefit from lower oil prices, like airlines and consumer discretionary, while energy stocks are naturally pulling back. What's notable is that the volatility index hit a one-year high recently, which some analysts think could mark a bottom for Bitcoin and other risk assets.
The key question for traders right now is whether this oil retreat is sustainable or just a temporary pause. If the straight of Hormu situation stabilizes and Saudi Arabia can restore full production as they've promised, we could see a meaningful rally in equities. But if tensions flare up again, we're right back to defensive positioning.
The fact that institutional money keeps flowing into Bitcoin ETFs with 167 million added recently suggests some smart money is using this volatility to accumulate rather than panic. For active traders, the strategy should be watching oil closely as the leading indicator, keeping positions sized appropriately for continued volatility and looking for oversold opportunities in quality names that got hit too hard during the panic.
That selectivity is going to be key in this environment. Steve, let's get into the economic numbers. What's the picture looking like this week? Thanks, Robert. We've got a relatively light day today, but a very heavy back half of the week coming up. For today, we're getting existing home sales data, and the forecast is 3.89 million units, down slightly from the previous reading of 3.91 million.
This continues the trend we've been seeing in the housing market, where higher mortgage rates and affordability concerns are keeping a lid on transaction volumes. The housing sector remains one of the more interest rate sensitive parts of the economy. So any weakness here reinforces the challenges facing real estate and financial sectors that depend on housing activity.
Now looking ahead to the rest of the week, tomorrow is the big one with the consumer price index release. The CPI index forecast is 325.41, up from the previous reading of 324.05. This is critical because it will give us insight into whether inflation is reacelerating or if we're still on a disinflationary path.
The market is very sensitive to this number right now given all the debate about Fed policy. Also, tomorrow we'll get initial jobless claims with a forecast of 215,000 versus the previous 213,000 and housing starts and building permits data with starts forecast at 1.35 million. Then on Friday, March 13th, we have a massive data dump.
We're expecting the second revision of GDP forecast at 1.4% versus the previous 4.4% 4% which would represent a significant downward revision if it comes in as expected. We'll also get the PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge forecast at 0.4% matching the previous reading. Consumer confidence index is forecast at 55 versus the previous 56.6 and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment is also expected at 55 versus 56.6.
Both of those sentiment readings would indicate consumers are feeling more pessimistic about the economic outlook. We'll also see durable goods orders forecast at 0.8% and the Jolts report showing job openings forecast at 6.7 million. It's really a week where we're going to get a comprehensive view of the economy across growth, inflation, employment, and consumer health.
And that's going to be critical for setting market direction heading into the end of the quarter. That's quite a data heavy week ahead. Lizzy, let's turn to our stock of the day. We're looking at Impinge, ticker symbol PI. What's your take on this one? Impinge is a really interesting case study in how quickly sentiment can shift in high growth tech names.
This is a company that operates in the RFID and internet of things space providing the chips and connectivity platform that enable wireless tracking of physical items across retail, logistics, healthcare and industrial applications. The stock has been absolutely crushed this year down 45% year to date and trading at $98.81 which is 60% below its 52- week high of $247.
That's a massive reset in valuation. Now, here's what makes this interesting. Despite the carnage, you have eight analysts with a buy rating and a consensus price target of $172.75, which implies 75% upside from current levels. The company isn't currently profitable on a trailing basis, but it's trading at a forward PE of 31.5 times, which tells you the market is still pricing in significant growth expectations.
The problem is the price to book ratio of 14.3 times, which is exceptionally high and suggests the market had gotten way ahead of itself before this correction. Looking at the recent performance, the stock is down 23% just in the past seven days. So, we're seeing capitulation style selling. The 5-year return is still positive at 58% which shows this was a strong performer before the recent weakness.
So, with that kind of decline, is this a buy the dip opportunity or a value trap? That's the critical question. And honestly, this is a high-risk, highreward situation that's really only appropriate for aggressive growth investors. On the opportunity side, the long-term thesis around RFID adoption is compelling.
Retailers want item level tracking. Supply chains need better visibility and healthcare requires precise inventory management. Impinge has a platform business model with potential for recurring revenue which is attractive. The fact that analysts still see 75% upside suggests the professional investment community believes the sell-off has been overdone and the fundamentals remain intact.
The valuation reset from $247 to $98 has certainly removed a lot of froth. However, the risks are substantial. The lack of current profitability means a company needs to execute flawlessly on growth to justify even the current valuation, let alone the analyst targets. That forward PE of 31 times leaves very little room for disappointment.
The semiconductor industry is cyclical and we could be facing inventory corrections or demand weakness. The momentum is clearly negative with that 23% drop in 7 days, which suggests there might be more selling pressure to come. My view is that conservative investors should stay away until we see evidence of stabilization, improved profitability metrics, or at least a few quarters of beating expectations.
For those with high risk tolerance who believe in the IoT adoption story, you could start building a small position here. But I'd want to see the stock base and form some support before getting aggressive. Watch the next earnings report very closely. If they can show accelerating revenue growth and a clear path to sustain profitability, that could be the catalyst to start the recovery toward those analyst targets.
But if they disappoint, this could easily test the low 80s or even the $60 level we saw at the bottom of the 52- week range. That's a thorough assessment. Let's shift to crypto. Lizzy, what are you seeing in digital assets? The crypto market is showing resilience and actually benefiting from some of the macro uncertainty we've been discussing.
Bitcoin is the standout performer, trading back above $70,000 after dipping below that level during the oil shock. The sentiment is decidedly bullish right now. We saw institutional investors add $167 million to Bitcoin ETFs recently and onchain data shows traders snapped up nearly 600,000 Bitcoin when it dipped below 70,000 which tells you the big money views these pullbacks as buying opportunities.
There's an interesting dynamic playing out where Bitcoin is being viewed as both a risk asset that rallies when tensions ease and as a hedge against geopolitical instability. Bhutan has been moving Bitcoin from its national reserves, selling about $42.5 million worth this year, but that's being easily absorbed by institutional demand.
Strategy, the Michael Sailor company, just bought an estimated 1420 Bitcoin in their latest purchase, setting a daily record. Some analysts are drawing comparisons to gold, suggesting we're seeing early signs of capital rotation from traditional safe havens into Bitcoin. For the week ahead, I'd characterize the Bitcoin outlook as bullish with support established around $69,000.
If the current momentum continues and we get benign inflation data from that CPI reports Steve mentioned Bitcoin could challenge new highs, Ethereum is more mixed. It's holding the $2,000 support level but facing resistance around 2200. There's been some concern about Ethereum underperforming Bitcoin by 65% since the Ultrasound money narrative shift and we're seeing some outflows from altcoin funds.
However, Vitalic Buterine just outlined plans to simplify staking for institutions which could bring more capital into the ecosystem. The Treasury firm Bitmine moved 19.5 million in Ethereum to Coinbase Prime, suggesting institutional accumulation continues despite the price weakness. Salana is the most bullish of the three institutions, funneled $540 million into Salana ETFs in the fourth quarter, and the price predictions point to continued upside.
The network is attracting serious institutional capital and appears poised to keep climbing for traders. The key factors to watch are continued institutional flows, the macro environment, especially oil prices and risk appetite, and any regulatory developments. The stable coin market is expanding, which is typically a bullish sign for crypto overall.
One risk to monitor is if the broader equity market sells off hard, crypto will likely follow, but the institutional bid seems strong enough to provide support on any meaningful dips. Thanks, Lizzie and Steve, for those insights. Before we wrap up, I want to remind our listeners that everything we discuss on the morning bell is forformational purposes only.
Remember, do your own research and consult with financial advisers before making investment decisions. Markets are particularly volatile right now with the geopolitical situation and heavy economic data coming this week. So, risk management is crucial. If you found today's discussion valuable, please subscribe to the Morning Bell wherever you get your podcasts.
and we'll be back tomorrow to break down that critical CPI number and what it means for your portfolio. Until then, trade carefully out there.
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