저자: DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
2026년은 AI 혁명의 변곡점이며, 2차·3차 파생 수요가 소프트웨어·인프라·사이버보안으로 확산될 시기. 기술주 섹터 20% 상승 전망, 대형 기술주(MS 등) 30~40%, MS 실적 발표 후 수치 확인 기대. 오라클 매도는 과도하다며 250달러 가능성 언급. 애플은 3~4월 구글 Gemini 제휴 발표 후 주당 75~100달러 가치 주장.
다듬은 글
2026 will be an inflection point in the AI revolution. That's just one of the predictions Wed Bush's Dan Ives is making as he looks ahead to the new year. Joins us now as you see. It's good to see you. Hey, great to be here. What does that mean? An inflection point. I think it's about the modernization of the AI revolution specifically on the software side.
You I think obviously Palunteer we've seen that front and center, but you look at MongoDB, Snowflake, the use cases. I think really the infrastructure buildout. I mean this is really going to be a key period to show the next stage of the AI revolution from a software cyber security and infrastructure perspective.
All right. So the headline here is that you think tech stocks are going to be up over 20% in 2026. When you say you're talking as a sector the sector is going to be up 20%. I think sector is going to be up 20%. And I actually think large cap tech in terms of like some of the mag 7 names could even be up more like I think like a Microsoft could be up 30 40%.
And I look at names like Google. I look at what ultimately in my opinion you have 3 to four trillion that's going to be spent next 3 to four years. You're just starting now this next phase like I've talked about third inning in terms of this non-ining game. But but now the second third fourth derivatives play out across software across infrastructure across cyber security.
And that's why I just anytime you talk about AI bubble I mean I was just in Asia right for 3 weeks. I mean demand and supply is 12 to1 and US for the first time in 30 years ahead of China. What isn't known about the Microsoft story at this point and why is the stock underperformed relative to some others?
Why could it possibly be up 40% next year? Yeah, I think to some extent it's a view like okay it's not just Microsoft it's what Google's done. They've had a lot of success on cloud. It's obviously AWS and what Jassee's done is you know is is impressive. But I think what investors are underestimating is we've seen deals accelerate 30% from Azure from our checks.
So I think as Microsoft comes out in late January as you start see the numbers play out. I mean I I think it could be conservative 30 to 40%. In my view like Microsoft's a name where when I look at large cap the table pounders here Apple and we could talk about that Microsoft and I've said I think Oracle the selloff here way way overdone that like I think it could be a $250 stock.
Why are you so sure the selloff is overdone in Oracle? Because I view it as like when you think about the AI revolution the stack and their install base and all the and all the checks that we do. I'm not saying there's not going to be bumps in the road in terms of the data center buildout. Isn't that what we're witnessing sort of right now?
How the street is viewing the financing behind the buildout that the very buildout you're talking about? Yeah, I think the street is basically giving it little to no credit for the 500 billion that they're essentially going to have in terms of, you know, in the future in terms of not just open AI, but building out the building out the stack over the coming years.
You're going to have growth accelerating from 17% to 30% to 45%. And I think investors are basically putting a massive discount saying like, "Okay, I'll call that and you're not going to ultimately be able to hit that." And I think that's why Oracle right here I continue to view as a huge prom moment that they're going to show success.
You don't have any concerns about the balance sheet at all. Look are I I view it as like if you could take on some debt to get to really transformation for them to really become a hyperscaler and you look at that open AI revenue and I think anyone associated with open AI right now you've seen those stocks trade a lot lower and I disagree because in my view like open AI is going to be the epicenter of this stage of the AI revolution and we've talked about it it's like you're you're still in the early days of the modernization I I think it's going to prove out that this is a huge buying opportunity in Microsoft, in Oracle, in a lot of these names, you know, Nvidia included that have sold off.
All right. So, you mentioned Apple. You think that Apple, one of your predictions, number three, Apple and Google will announce a formal AI partnership around Gemini that will finally cement a real AI strategy for Certino. Expand on that. Well, I think you know part of the issue and we've been at WWDC the last few years back to future type moments, you know, where really they they have been on a treadmill at 2.5 speed on AI.
Now finally you have new leadership from the outside. I think you have a lot of changes happening that are setting the stage for the Gemini partnership. They couldn't do that before the DOJ win. Now, Google and Apple, I think that cementss in March and April, and it sets up for Certino finally coming to the AI party.
That's worth, I think, $75 to $100 per share. That probably the number one large cap name that you don't
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