저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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Cramer은 기술주 전반의 과잉 지출(CapEx) 경쟁으로 이익 개선이 어렵다고 보고, 기술 '사용자' 기업인 P&G를 저평가된 방어주로 추천한다. 아마존·메타·마이크로소프트·구글 등 빅테크는 AI 경쟁으로 지출이 과도하며 주가 상승 동력이 제한된다고 주장한다. 버블은 이미 10월말 꺼졌다고 평가한다. 자선신탁 보유 종목으로 아마존, 엔비디아, 브로드컴을 언급하나 적극 추천은 아니다. 버라이즌은 하락 추세가 이어질 수 있다고 봤다.
다듬은 글
[ll of you teach you. So, call me 1-800-743-CNBC to tweet me Jim Cramer. If you ask me what tech stock I like right now, right here, I'd tell you that my favorite tech stock is Procter & Gamble. A house of innovation spends more than $2 billion a year on research and development to make the best personal products imaginable.
From Pampers that can handle a pounding to Tide Evo detergent with six levels of cleaning to the Gillette Labs heated razor for the best shaving imaginable. This company is loaded with the kind of tech I'm willing to pay for. And get this, its stock's on sale, down more than 13% for the year. And management already told you they're going to miss the quarter, so it's what we call de-risked.
In this wacky market, you want those who use the technology, not those who make it. You can see that on a day where the Dow dipped 41 points, S&P declined 0.16%, but the tech-laden Nasdaq dropped another 0.59%. [screaming] In this market, you want the stock of Procter & Gamble because it's cheaper than I can ever call.
With a new CEO coming in, a monster user, not maker, but user of tech, which is what's working now in this stock market. See, Procter & Gamble used AI to fix its supply chain, uses digital twin technology to design new factories, saving millions of dollars versus old construction. It uses AI to figure how to cut down on supplies that it doesn't really need.
So, no, I'm not being facetious. My favorite tech stocks right now are the business-to-business users of technology. I think these companies will increasingly be given a chance to buy amazing tech that will help them cut costs and bring new products to market much faster than ever. And that we never even knew we needed.
Heated razors. It's just that we're so fixated on the producers of tech, we like the prurient interest of talking about the big guns in it, that we forget it's the users of tech that are getting the bargain, not the makers of tech and their stocks remain very expensive. It's hard in this market to find a bargain like Procter that sells for just over 20 times earnings with 2.9% yield, not bad when the president wants rates to fall to 1% and you can compound.
It's certainly hard to find that kind of valuation among the traditional tech plays right now. The techs have lots of wood to chop before they settle into better, more viable levels. Procter though, it's already so cheap. Right now, the actual techs, the companies we call the Mag 7, the semis, they've had gigantic runs and are pulling back because their future prospects are so darn murky and they've had this such a giant move and its price proven to be indigestible.
Just consider a couple that we own for the charitable trust. So, we like these. Okay, we like these. I'm just giving you a straight dope here cuz I don't want to trade. I want to start with Amazon, big position of ours. Here's a company that can send you anything overnight or increasingly during the day at a low price.
Has a thriving app business, has the Amazon Web Services business, represents less than 20% of the company's revenue, but 60% of its total profits. AWS is now the core business and it spends billions upon billions on semiconductors, data centers, energy. I don't want any of that. I just want a package delivered to me and I'm happy to use Walmart if it's got a ton of technology itself instead of Amazon if it's cheaper.
Now, Amazon's stock is up about 1.5% for the year. That's not that good. The amount of money they need to spend to keep up with their competitors in the race for AI supremacy is insane. But what are they going to do? Let OpenAI come into the retail and web services business take away their clients? Let Walmart use their stores to beat Amazon at its own game?
Amazon's strategy is not spend to win, it's spend to defend. I like to win. Meta's interesting. It's up almost 11% for the year, not much, but better than Amazon. Stock sells for 22 times next year's earnings, that's kind of cheap, kind of ridiculously cheap if you like the management as much as I do.
But it's also spending like mad, perhaps as much as $100 billion next year for capital expense. And I'm not even thinking about these huge pay packages the company's using, no salary cap in tech. Hey guys, go fix that, will you? Get like a CBA thing. For that capital spend, Meta's getting power plants and data centers, both of which could be frankly out of date by the time they're done.
Again though, they don't have a choice. If Meta takes its foot off the pedal, then OpenAI might start coming in after them in the social media space. All these big tech companies live in fear of that. They believe that whoever wins AI could potentially win everything else too. And if you let OpenAI in with this chimerical balance sheet, then you've been Binged.
That's what will happen, you'll be Binged. And you know what happens when you've been Binged? That's Microsoft has Bing and the other guy, Google, has Google. Well, it's going to be like Carrie. We're all going to laugh at you. I know the stock of Meta, like many of the tech court, hasn't done anything for months, while stocks in the transports and financials, THEY'RE THEY'RE JUST FLYING.
[screaming] THE ONLY THING THAT WOULD GET META'S stock moving is to come out right now and say, "Listen, we're not going to we're not going to pay all this. We're not going to pay all this for power. We're not going to do all these data centers." And I have no idea how they can do that without losing their edge.
How about Microsoft? When's this one going to bottom? The stock's only up about 13% for the year now, but it remains a fixture at the office, jamming Teams down our throats and offering us Copilot when we don't even need a regular pilot, let alone all the junk they punish us with. You know what? I've been buying things when they're thin just so they won't come up, but they still come up.
Those of us stuck with a PC that's based on Microsoft instead of the pristine Apple, which has been the case for me for decades, know that the real workhorse here is business-to-business. Microsoft's in an unassailable position, but it requires massive spending to keep Azure, the cloud infrastructure business, competitive versus Google and Amazon.
These are three of the richest companies in the world all going after the same piece of the pie. So, why not jam the captive audience? We can't do anything about it. Truth. And it's not just Microsoft. Almost every single tech company I follow has a monstrous set of rivals spending tens of billions of dollars to dominate the particular industry.
Now, in one case, that spending can be worth it. Google spent enough to keep the comers out of the search category. It's been allowed to write a check to Apple to make it the default search. That cost them $20 million per year and it's the money well spent. Now that the contract has been blessed by a federal judge who must have lost his mind.
I now expect Google will also pay Apple to make Gemini their default AI chatbot. Ooh, that doesn't like it even more. At that point, even OpenAI OpenAI playing with the other people's money may not be able to compete. In other words, these big tech stocks can't advance unless they can rein in their spending, but I just don't know how they can.
Not as long as OpenAI is out there with a CEO who wants to win in every vertical as a privately held company that has plenty of investors who are eager to throw money at them because I think they want to be cool. Can you imagine if someone came into the business all the businesses that Procter & Gamble competes with with twice the R&D budget?
Believe me, much as you may like P&G products, that R&D-laden competitor would have a couple things that you'd switch to destroy Procter's profit margins. Understand, I'm not trying to say that tech stocks can't be owned here. We own a bunch of them for the charitable trust. We always have them along with Nvidia and Broadcom.
I really like them. I'm just a lot less enthusiastic than I used to be because there's competition all over the place and they're spending like crazy and the stocks have still had big moves. I've never made big money betting on a company that's involved in a scrum where every competitor has got a ton of money.
Right now, Alphabet's the only one that seems to be winning. I don't I don't know. I mean, we need more winners, but it's just Alphabet. The amazing thing is, when I look at artificial intelligence plays, the traditional ones, not the Sandisk and the Micron ones, which are going up like crazy, but that one too.
All I can say is that there's no bubble brewing. If there was a bubble, it burst at the end of October when pretty much all these stocks stopped making money and most of them were starting going down during the end of the year of magical investing, remember that? Bubble brewing, it popped already, numbskulls.
Bottom line, the difference between the big tech and Procter & Gamble, most of the tech companies are simply spending to keep up with the Joneses here. Procter spends to dominate, which is why I think it's worth buying right here, right now, alongside the charitable trust where dividend gives you a floor and there's no CapEx ceiling in sight.
Let's go to Nick in Florida, please, Nick. Hi, Jim. Um Nick, what's your take Verizon's stock? Uh Verizon, thank you for asking. No problem. Verizon's stock is often viewed as low-volatility income play. With the current market conditions and interest rates dropping, do you think it's a good dividend yield against this
a common stock as a bond. You buy common stocks for growth and if they happen to give you income, that's great. But common stocks are not bonds and they'll end up disappointing you. Verizon is down 5% and I think it in last 6 months and I think that that decline may just be getting started. Look, it's hard to identify winners in tech right now with all the spending going on.
I mean, come on, guys. But a stock like Procter & Gamble that spends to dominate, that can be bought right here, right now. Mad Money tonight, oh, another one I like, Affirm announces new partnership with Revolut today. I'm getting a read on the deal and the move into the UK. Get ready, UK. And then and that's that buy now, pay later stuff.
Then the long knives are out for Oracle as I just mentioned its first lackluster earnings report and I am sorting through the negativity to say where I stand on the name. And the industrial gas company Linde has been heading higher since its investor day last week and I'm sitting down with the CEO to find out why. So, stay with Cramer. &]
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