Nvidia and Tesla are the best companies in 'physical AI', says Wedbush's Dan Ives

요약 보기

Dan Ives는 피지컬 AI 시대에 엔비디아와 테슬라가 최선의 기업이며, 테슬라는 로보택시·사이버캡·옵티머스를 통해 2026~2027년 말 시가총액 2~3조 달러 도달 가능하다고 주장. FSD 침투율이 15%에서 50% 이상으로 오르면 마진이 크게 개선되고, 향후 3~4년 내 이익 체력이 4~5배 될 것으로 전망. Waymo는 테슬라 대비 미미한 수준이라 평가. 스페이스X IPO는 AI 사이클 변곡점으로 보고 2년간 기술 강세장 지속 전망. 연방 차원 자율주행 로드맵(행정명령) 기대.

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01. There's also a chance he says that it could hit a three trillion market cap by the end of that year. And for more, let's bring him in. He's here on set with me, Dan Ives is Wedbush Global Head of Technology Research. Welcome. Great to be here. You could have picked an easier one. You know, maybe Nvidia.

02. Like, why Tesla to you? Is it still so clear? For all the ups and downs for the auto industry, for all of its ambitions, everything they want to do is always delayed. Granted, the market cap, you know, is still phenomenal. Why do you think 20 Why do you feel so strongly that 2026 will be a great year?

03. I think it's about autonomous. I mean, all when it comes to physical AI, I think there's nothing better, you know, when when it comes to physical AI than Nvidia and Tesla. And I think this is going to be a golden chapter for Tesla when it comes to When when it comes to robo-taxis, when it comes to cyber cabs, volume production, true autonomous, and of course you look at robotics in terms of Optimus.

04. I mean, Kelly, that's why I think we're looking at two trillion, ultimately probably a three trillion-dollar market cap by late 2026 or late 2027. That's why I continue to be where we're at. What's the E So, you know, you think about a market cap that big. You say, okay, it's a high multiple. I don't know what exactly the earnings look like.

05. What are you anticipating on that front? And how do how do how does physical AI kind of feed directly into the earnings power it might have? I mean, when I look out next three, four years, I think earnings power is 4x, 5x. But because it's my view that, you know, when you think about not just the FSD piece, but in terms of true autonomous, it's going to change the whole margin profile.

06. It changes the whole growth story. I think just going forward for Tesla, the focus it's Okay, deliveries, they matter, of course they matter. But in terms of next few years, especially Musk now wartime CEO in terms of pay package, you know, as that's already cemented, this is just the start. And they're also going to have an ownership XAI.

07. You know, what's happening SpaceX. I mean, I think we're now talking about this next AI chapter that's happening across the Musk ecosystem. We had Dan Primack on last week and and he said, you know, I I basically asked him or he said the question to ask is why is SpaceX going public now? Do you think there's anything related to financial pressure on Tesla or Musk or anything like that?

08. Is Or is it a political Why would 2026 be the year for SpaceX? I think the time's right. I mean, you could argue valuation, right? This is an approach of a trillion dollars. It's the same reason why it is, you know, Anthropic or, you know, ultimately when when you look at OpenAI and others. I mean, we're hitting at a point where it's only year three of an eight to 10-year buildout in terms of the AI revolution.

09. And for the first time in 30 years, I mean, you've talked about this, you know, the US is ahead of China when it comes to tech. But SpaceX is an inflection point. I think it's important that it goes public. It's the right time. And look, we are in, I think, two more years in this tech bull market. And we're going to see more and more of these great private companies going public.

10. Won't SpaceX be, if you'll pardon the term, sexier than Tesla? In other words, right now, if you are a big fan of Elon Musk and everything he's doing in the future as as described, this is the only public equity you can own for that story. Now, SpaceX could be the newer, younger thing on the block. What if investors go with that and thus remove some of the halo, right?

11. The the community effect around those who hold shares of Tesla and support its valuation just to have a piece of Musk? Yeah, it's a great point. Look, I actually think it expands. I mean, to some extent, the ecosystem from SpaceX to Tesla and ultimately what's going to be the ownership XAI. Because the reality is when you think about what's happening here, I mean, we're talking about the next five, 10, 15 years, Musk at the centerpiece of it.

12. But I think it speaks to when you when it comes to Tesla, that continues to be the best play because I think autonomous is worth a trillion dollars alone. You think about Optimus in terms of true robotics. And as this all plays out, I think globally, I mean, they can own 70, 80% of the autonomous market, you know, over the globally over the coming years.

13. I know you think that full self-driving penetration could be as high as 50%. In other words, half the people who buy a Tesla pay the extra money to have that option, which would be, as you say, a game-changer for margins and for the stock. So, that's part of what you're talking about is for those who own Teslas, they use this technology.

14. The other part is the cyber cab is what's it called? And how would you describe its position in this vis-à-vis Waymo, where Waymo also does quite well. The cars are really expensive. Um, regulatory and otherwise, what should we expect on the like the cyber cab front from Tesla? Well, first of all, like FSD, you're going to go from penetration 15% to 50% and I think it could even be higher.

15. So, from a margin perspective, that's going to be huge. Look, Waymo, Waymo's going to be a rounding error relative to what Tesla's going to do. I think not just in the US, but I think globally. Look, it speaks to just how expensive those cars are, how they could scale. And I think when you think about autonomous and in terms of the road map, I mean, we would expect probably some sort of executive order, you know, going into early next year, where I think it's going to clear in terms of the federal road map.

16. I mean, more and more you're going to go away from the states to federal. And that's going to be extremely important for Tesla in terms of where I think they could take robo-taxis.