저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 단기(30~90일)는 위로 튀는 고통스러운 상승 시나리오가 유력하나, 인플레이션 재점화 시 다시 긴축으로 급락할 수 있어 변동성이 크다. 시장 사이클 비교: 2023년 말~2024년 초는 2018년 말~2019년 초와 유사하다. 당시 연준 긴축 우려로 하락 후 연준 피벗 기대로 급등했고, 그 이후 코로나 상황이 전개되었다. 단기 전망: 최소 30~90일 동안 위로 튀는 상승이 고통스러운 방향이며, 초과 유동성이 위험자산으로 몰릴 가능성이 있다. 다만 인플레이션이 재점화되면 연준이 다시 긴축할 위험이 있어 휩쏘(whipsaw)가 나타날 수 있다. 자금 흐름: 기관 머니 매니저들이 하반기 강세를 예상했으나 이번 주 포지셔닝이 부족하다고 인정했고, 강제 매수자가 생길 수 있다. 빅뱅크들이 IPO를 물밑에서 준비 중이며 자본시장 재개 신호가 나타나고 있다. 시장 구조: 대부분 거래는 알고리즘과 ETF가 주도한다. 지수 편입 비중에 따른 기계적 매수·매도 루프가 존재하며, 사람들은 이를 선행매매한다. 페이스북·테슬라 등 고베타 기술주는 30~60일 사이 60~100% 급등했는데 건강한 움직임이 아니라고 평가한다. 금리 시장 신호: 채권 시장은 6개월 내 연방기금금리 고점을 약 4.75%로 보고, 2년물 약 4.09%로 향후 약 50bp 인하를 예상한다. 5~10년물은 약 3.5%로 장기 안정을 가리킨다. 즉 시장은 연준이 인플레이션을 충분히 억제했다고 본다. 밸류에이션 리스크: 벤저민 그레이엄 모델(금리 2배의 역수 기준)을 적용하면 3.5% 기준 적정 PER은 약 14배인데 S&P500은 22배로 약 50% 고평가 상태다. 다만 해당 모델은 현재 시장에서 절대적이지 않다. 연준 평가: 파월 의장은 12월에는 매파였으나 이후 두 차례 25bp 인상 후 마무리를 시사하며 사실상 항복했다. 시장은 저점이 통상 6~9개월 선행한다는 점을 들어 단기 반등 흐름을 설명한다. 세금 손실 상계 매도 후 재매수 흐름도 상승 탄력을 키운 요인으로 제시된다. 테슬라는 연초 약 108달러에서 30일 내 두 배로 올랐다. 리스크: 인플레이션이 다시 올라오면 연준이 긴축을 재개하고 시장이 항복하는 시나리오가 가능하다. 고데이터 결과에 따라 방향이 바뀔 수 있다. 출연자 전망: 단기 상승 후 인플레이션 재점화에 따른 조정 가능성을 열어두고, 시장이 과열되어 있다는 경계를 유지한다.
다듬은 글
to me this is very similar and yearly reminiscent of the end of 2018 and beginning of 2019 and if you guys remember the end of 2018 October November December the markets just fell and part of it was Powell's going to raise rates inflation's getting out of control Etc et cetera and then we got all this data that said China may be entering a real period of malaise and Powell capitulated again trying to stick the land and long story short he didn't that was a head fake and the markets just ripped higher then we went into the covet pandemic and all that stuff happened so I think we're about to replay a little bit of that at least in the next 30 to 90 days the pain trade is to go up the marginal risk here is is for this whip sawing so we have a period now which is disinflationary but the problem is if the stock market keeps going up and all of a sudden we have less restrictive monetary conditions then we're going to be back at the same place we were before which is money sloshing around into all kinds of risky assets or more money you know there's still an enormous amount of money sitting on the sidelines that has to come into the market now if this thing keeps going higher so we're in a delicate moment and if we reignite inflation because all of a sudden more companies have more liquidity that they can tap right more money they can raise more money as a result that they can spend because we don't have this first inflationary cycle under control there could be a risk that that we reignite inflation and so then they have to capitulate the FED has to capitulate again and start another hiking cycle so I think it's a complicated moment I think all of the smart money in Wall Street that I talked to up until this point they forecasted like this period would be choppy and the second half of the year would be really robust and like you needed to be super long and things were going to be incredible and when I talked to them this week they're like oh God we weren't positioned for this we had no risk going into this we're going to be forced buyers there's a bunch of companies that are Whispering that they want to go public now the big banks have been calling around trying to book build quietly for some IPOs and so if they try to kind of crack this Capital markets open I think again the marginal risk will be that we do whipsaw as sex I think that there's a lot of those testing the waters that are now starting again most of the market are not people right most of the market are computers and algorithms and ETFs it's an extremely formulaic buying model do you have components of an index those represent certain percentages you have to own those percentages to be relevant as that index and so it's this reinforced buying loop as well as a reinforced selling Loop right so when things start moving those folks have to just systematically move money in all the humans know that so the humans tend to front run all the computers and they basically are the ones that sell into these guys and then that's what inflates these prices and similarly on the way down humans try to front run it by being short into that stuff so we could see the capital markets open even if we don't it's actually the worst scenario because now you have all this money going into a fewer number of names that sort of explains Facebook has doubled in in 30 to 60 days Tesla has doubled in 30 you know 30 60 days a lot of the tech stocks like high beta stocks that we are all you know helping to build those companies have just absolutely ripped 60 to 100 percent these are not healthy and normal moves and so the question is what happens if inflation somehow all of a sudden pokes itself back up right now it doesn't look like it is that's why the market reps I mean basically that was all part of a narrative where inflation's on its way out we've licked that problem and that's what the market was pricing in and I think now the question is in light of today's jobs report is that actually true or not disinflation not deflation disinflation way to look at this is um Jacob you showed the chart of the FED funds rate another chart is the yield curve this is the yield on U.S treasuries on you know RT bills and one way to look at this is as a prediction Market of where the market thinks interest rates are going because the FED sets the rate for the fed's funds rate which is the overnight rate of lending to Banks but they do not set the rate of you know three months six months bonds 10-year bonds and so on the market does because the market trades those bonds imputes a yield that the market requires to want to hold those bonds so what's interesting is that if you view the yield curve as a again as a prediction Market it tells you at any given time what the collective wisdom is of the market now this thing is fluctuating moving all the time so that Collective wisdom is changing but where things are today is pretty interesting it looks like with the mark Market is saying is that within the next six months the rate Peaks at 4.75 percent so Nick if you just want to hold the mouse on the six month dot you'll see it's 4.76 percent so basically the market is predicting we get maybe one more quarter point roughly not much and then if you go to the two-year it's at 4.09 so a little over four percent so what the market is actually predicting is that over the next two years we're actually going to get a 50 basis point decrease from the Fed and then if you go to say The Five-Year or the 10-year we're at three and a half percent so the Market's basically saying that long-term rates are going to stabilize at three and a half percent we're not going back to the abnormal zero interest rate policy or zurp that they have for 10 years three and a half percent will be the long-term stable you know cost of money but you can see that the market the prediction Market thinks that the FED has done enough to combat inflation because the FED funds rate now basically is where the bond market thinks it should be and in fact the bond market thinks it's coming down over the next two years if you listen to Buffett Buffett's teacher this guy Ben Graham in Ben Graham's book the way that he would look at a stock and obviously look things have changed but the way that he would look at a stock is he would look at that risk-free rate he would double it and then the inverse of that is the maximum price to earnings ratio that he would pay for a stock right that's the trade-off is if you can get more than two times the risk-free rate then it's worth owning a company what that means is that if if you take three and a half percent as a terminal rate the right p e is around 14 for the s p 500.
right now the S P 500 trades at 22 times p e which would mean that we are 50 overvalued now that again that's a Benjamin Graham model and I think the world has pretty cleanly moved away from it but there's probably some rooting in that intellectual framework that's still valuable and to your point David it just reinforces that man we need to start to learn a new regime here because when rates are not zero there's just a lot of excess that you can't support because the alternative trade-offs for investors are plentiful you know and plowing money into a money losing startup becomes less attractive I watched Powell's speech and it was really amazing because in December he was extremely hawkish and he was basically like listen we're going to keep rates higher than you like and longer than you want and that was pretty clear and the markets reacted and then not but 35 40 days later he essentially said we have two 25 basis point hikes left to go and he's going to try to stick the landing essentially and even though the rest of the language in his entire speech and the press conference if you read it in the absence of his body language so if you just read the transcript would seem very hawkish as well but the reality was he basically capitulated and then the market essentially said okay we're at the end of this thing and we've talked about this before but markets tend to bottom six to nine months before it's clear that you could have done this and so we're a little bit Off to the Races in the short term it's compounded by a couple of other factors one is that at the end of last year so many people were tax loss harvesting which means if you had some gain somewhere else you sold some things that were losing money so that you could net the two together you saw a lot of stocks Tesla was probably the poster child for this trade all the way down to like 108 dollars a share and it's effectively doubled in the last 30 days right so everybody tax loss harvested everybody degrossed nobody was really owning anything and then when Powell basically said we're mostly done there's been so much systematic buying right now that nobody's really well positioned to me this is very similar and yearly reminiscent of the end of 2018 and beginning of 2019 and if you guys remember at the end of 2018 October November December the markets just fell and part of it was Powell's going to raise rates inflation's getting out of control et cetera Etc and then we got all this data that said China may be entering a real period of malaise and Powell capitulated again trying to stick the landing and long story short he didn't that was a head fake and the markets just ripped higher then we went into the covet pandemic and all that stuff happened so I think we're about to replay a little bit of that at least in the next 30 to 90 days the pain trade is to go
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