저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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향후 15~25년간 가장 큰 투자 기회는 에너지 생성(한계비용 0 수렴)과 컴퓨팅(GPU 기반 계산, 신약 개발 등)이라고 주장. 미국 IRA 보조금으로 그린수소 사업은 매출총이익률 100% 이상 가능하다고 언급. 자신의 투자 경력 중 가장 큰 기회로 보며 향후 20년을 이 두 분야에 쓰겠다고 함. 웹3는 암호화폐보다 탈중앙화 인프라 재구축이 핵심이라고 봄. 비트코인 2012년 투자 경험과 비교하며 이 기회가 그보다 크다고 강조.
다듬은 글
you have to go work in a technology company and you have to use technology to build a business because there is no problem that you cannot solve that technology won't be the Leading Edge of the sword and by doing it there's it's impossible to not make money I dare you to find a technology business that has improved the world that has not made Millionaires and ctim Millionaires and decamillionaires and billionaires it's just not possible I think that though these next 15 to 20 years it's pure Alpha money will be falling from this country in this video there are excerpts from an interview of established VC and former senior exec at Facebook shath Palapa in the interview organized by the Wharton business school in Philadelphia shath goes into detail on his current investing Outlook he hammers on the two areas he describes as the greatest investment opportunity of his lifetime the two opportunities in question are in the sphere of energy generation and Computing he explains that the V see institutional and government opportunities available for innovators in this space are almost Limitless because of how important these problems have become not one to ask people to embark on Fool's errands shath explains the scale of the financial incentives for investors and developers in this sphere he goes further to explain that even he will spend the next 20 years of his life in these sectors let's dive into his unique Insight um I'll give you two big Trails of breadcrumbs that you should follow um and I and I've said this now a little bit redundantly but I'll just keep saying it because it it is it is the most important thing in the next 25 years so I don't care what you like or don't like you need to Pivot your career to one of these two things um if you want to be successful number one is that the marginal cost of energy generation is going to zero okay you have wars you have have death you have all kinds of geopolitics that pivot around natural resources and energy what happens to a peace dividend in the world when you don't have to fight for that stuff because you have abundant energy and the cost of making that energy is effectively zero and it has no impact into the uh Ecology of the world while we're about to find that out and when you take the cost of energy to zero now it unlocks all kinds of other problems that before were impossible to tackle because it would be too expensive so that's Trend number one Trend number two is that we have shifted the ability to calculate and solve any computational problem away from a CPU to these things called gpus so think of some examples of these things so for example in life sciences today you can go and now we don't you don't need a scientist so you don't need inv Vivo and in vitro speculation of drugs and molec UL you can just use a computer to simulate that you can basically figure out the entire bounded space of 10 to the 33 molecules one of you could figure out a solution to a rare disease that's a 10 to20 billion payoff per rare disease it's worth your time partner up with somebody in the Cs department and go figure out how to tackle that problem before it would cost you millions of dollars in power and compute today it cost you nothing and then guys like us will basically feed that engine you know we'll pay you to go and solve those things uh on the energy side there's going to be all of this stuff that happens when basically everybody has a little you know nuclear fusion reactor on their roof which by the way is not an actual reactor it's just a solar panel that collects energy from the true nuclear reactor in the sky which is the Sun and you store it in your wall and now you can do whatever you want right do you see any country trudging into any other country to fight over oil when you have zero cost energy just think about it no so you're going to rip apart and turn over trillions and trillions of dollars of the world economy your job is to get close enough to it to just grab a few of those shekel for yourself put it in your pocket and you won following the definition of the industries that have his interest jamaath has given a single example defining one of the many opportunities and the rewards for providing such a solution next he explains that he's not just recommending these spheres he will be actively participating in these sectors he also explains that his opinion of these industries is bolstered by the fact that arguably for the first time in history the government is actively incentivizing development in these spheres I will be spending all of my time over the next 20 years on these two problems that I just told you guys about and so you know if there's camaraderie here because you can always find me to find support but that's that's where I'm going to direct this fire hose you know um these these energy gener problems these compute problems these Life Sciences problems there are probably no bigger things um to work on government spending trillions of dollars to create these two boundary conditions for you you need to understand them and take advantage of it you will make trillions distributed across all of you um that is where to spend your time that is where I will spend my time that is what my Spidey senses tell me is the greatest opportunity of my investing career and I've never felt this way before I didn't even feel this way about Bitcoin you know and I was the guy that owned 5% of these things in 2011 my dollar cost average was like 90 bucks or 100 bucks even when I knew that that was going to win I'm telling you that that is going to pale in comparison to this I think that though these next 15 to 20 years it's pure Alpha I mean honestly it's like it's like money will be falling from the sky I gave you a different example example like if you if you were to go and start a green energy business a green hydrogen business today because of the IRA the uh in the inflation reduction app you you you really don't you don't even have to calculate gross margin the government is literally paying you to make green hydrogen like you know it's a it's the craziest craziest craziest thing your gross margin is going to be more than 100% have you heard of such a thing so it's like why wouldn't you go and find some chemist and just go and figure out how to basically make green hydrogen and you'll print money and then you can direct that money to other things and you can start to layer in your view of the world so there's just all these crazy opportunities I think for the next 20 years that are utterly loow hanging fruit that nobody's looking so far chamath has spoken extensively on Computing and energy and all the factors at play enabling it to be the greatest Financial opportunity of his lifetime shth in the same interview explained that aside technology stalks most other sectors have companies doing the exact same thing he cites the example of the aviation industry and explains that any two key players in this sphere are indistinguishable from one another in sharp contrast to this the technology industry is extremely Innovative combine this with the Innovations in computation and energy shath is convinced that the future will revolve around these things and that's why he recommends focusing on them whether you're an investor or innovator in fact he's is convinced that the opportunities currently available are superior to buying Bitcoin in 2012 to close he touches on cryptocurrency and blockchain Tech where do you see web 3 and kind of the blockchain industry evolving over the next couple decades good question it has nothing to do with crypto um I think the really interesting thing that's happening in web 3 is a completely Federated rebuild of all of the internet infrastructure of web 2 so think AWS totally distributed think gcp totally distributed Azure totally distributed so you know RPC infrastructure by company a uh database infrastructure Company B um you know simple simple low code no code ways of basically you know stitching all of these things together um I don't know what that means for data data center infrastructure or any of this other stuff or but that is what what is the most interesting part of web 3 these companies that are building that kind of stuff unbelievably technical people so just to follow up you think the biggest Innovation will have nothing to do with the cryptocurrencies it will just be in decentralization infrastructure 10 15 years from now that'll change but right now what I see is that is where the most talented people are building it work through thank you welcome sheth's insights on where the world is headed are deeply profound and have been corroborated by other experts in the field like R pal his perspective on cryptocurrency is unique unlike most experts he's not convinced that there's a looming financial crisis that will force us all to move to blockchains this explains why he's convinc that the sectors that will reward you the most in the next 20 25 years are the Computing and energy generation sectors but what do you think to see the latest in crypto news watch this video here
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