저자: JamieNicholls · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 주식시장 급락 시 신용 축소로 부동산·주식이 하락하고 비트코인은 오히려 상승할 가능성이 크다는 견해. 주식과 비트코인의 상관관계: 최근 일주일간 비트코인과 S&P500이 함께 하락·반등했으나 장기 상관관계는 약하다고 봄. 작년 비트코인 약 1300% 상승 대비 S&P500은 약 25% 상승. 신용 리스크와 주식 하락 전망: 주식·주택 가격이 신용으로 부풀려져 있어 신용 경색 시 급락 가능성이 있다고 주장. 연준의 금리 인상으로 차입 비용이 높아지면 주가와 집값이 하락할 것으로 봄. 비트코인 수혜 전망: 비트코인은 신용 매수가 불가능해 신용 축소의 영향을 덜 받고, 공급이 제한되어 있어 주식 급락 시 자금이 유입될 수 있다고 봄. 규제가 정비되면 금·은과 함께 안전자산으로 자금이 몰릴 수 있다고 언급. 목표 및 기간: 암호화폐 시총이 현재 약 4000억 달러에서 2018년 말까지 1조 달러로 증가할 수 있다고 전망. 단기 상관관계는 있을 수 있으나 장기로는 반대 방향 가능성. 출연자 전망 요약: 주식시장은 레버리지 해소를 위해 조정이 필요하며, 그 시점에 암호화폐 강세가 더 클 수 있다고 봄. 다만 시기는 불확실하다고 명시.
다듬은 글
the Bitcoin up stocks down Bitcoin down Oh as Bitcoin become a greed gauge or a market gauge may be so let's go down the New York Stock Exchange where apparently a party has broken out Bob Pisani is the party for you they were know there's a party every day down here and if they were just playing the cheers theme from the 80s here the 80s never died yeah hey Gordon the sp500 correlated well it might seem that way if you look at what's happened in the last week or so so Bitcoin has dived as the SP is dived as Brian mentioned bounced on Tuesday just as the market has bounced looks like there's some relationship but the longer-term correlation is really much weaker I mean obviously a bit closed up thirteen hundred percent last year the SP was up perhaps 25 percent right now Bitcoin another large cap crypto s-- have a very low correlation with the sp500 but as the number of people trading crypto currencies increases it's possible the correlation could go up the vast majority of crypto trading is done by retail we know that now we have a massive sell-off in the crypto market so the question is what percentage of the crypto market is also investing in stocks and did the sell-off in crypto cause anyone to sell their stock holdings I tend to think that this is so interesting news segment and first off I do want to introduce you guys to my new cover screen I hope you like it Mendy from quite crypto made it so I'll be throwing this up on some of my videos but you know a great great discussion on the video you know I don't think stocks and crypto will be correlated with each other I think actually the opposite I feel like you know the stock market is going to crash eventually I don't know when obviously no one does if they do you know they should make a lot of money but I do feel like eventually we have this credit issue where you know everything is pumped by credit you know stocks are being pumped by credit housing prices are being pumped on credit and here's a really interesting thing they got rid of the credit card purchases with bitcoins so bitcoin is actually a market that is not credit it's not like you can go and put you know 3% down and then a bank will lend you 97 percent to buy crypto and a lot of these companies that are in the stock market a lot of the real estate you know prices have been going up and by the way I'm a real estate owner I have a pretty large portfolio of homes in Southern California which has been pumping like crazy so in a way it's been making me very well-off but I'm just very hesitant because I do feel like eventually this credit freeze will cause a crash and not only know the stock market but also the real estate market and then I don't think the crypto market will get hit I think it would be the opposite where the crypto market will actually go up because it's not pump by credit you know there's only a certain supply a Bitcoin so you know only time will tell but in my opinion you know there might be some correlations you know short term but long term if the stock market finally gets hit with a credit crunch and you kind of see it because they're raising interest rates right now the feds trying to raise interest and as money becomes more expensive to borrow a lot of these stock prices and house prices are going to take a dive and you know people are going to want to move their money into stable assets like gold and silver and believe it or not I think people will start putting money into cryptocurrencies especially when it's better regulated and you know there's a lot more processes that government and just the community in itself needs to go through to make it a more stable and better asset to invest in and when that does happen I feel like the cryptocurrency market will grow and you know right now we're still under 400 400 billion market cap but I easily see this market cap going up to you know one trillion by the end of 2018 and if there is a stock market crash where you know housing and real you know real estate stocks start taking a dump I do see a lot of money coming into the cryptocurrency market so only time will tell but you know please if you're watching this video subscribe to the channel give me your thoughts and you know we'll see if I'm right but I do feel like the stock market will eventually need a correction from all this you know leveraging and Finance and when that does happen you know there's a big possibility that there'll be an even bigger run-up and gains in the cryptocurrency market but we'll see let me know what you guys think
Comments 0