저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
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영상은 피터 린치의 투자 철학을 소개한다. 잘 아는 회사에 투자하라는 원칙, 13년간 연평균 29% 수익률 등 성과를 강조. 시장 폭락은 역사적으로 주기적으로 찾아오며 장기적으로는 회복·상승한다고 설명. 1987년 블랙먼데이 때 펀드가 1,200만→800만 달러로 줄었던 일화와 타코벨 사례 등을 언급. 장기 투자자는 변동성을 기회로 삼을 수 있다는 메시지.
다듬은 글
but if you didn't understand the company if you're just buying on the fact that the stock went from $16 to $26 and then again a $10 what will you do when it goes to $9 what will you do when it goes to8 what will you do when it goes to $7 this is the problem with people is that they sell stocks that they didn't know why they bought them then it went down and they didn't know what to do now do you flip a coin and walk around the block what do you do hello and welcome to the channel today we'll be talking about Peter Lynch's methods to make millions in a market crash he's heralded to be one of the greatest investors in the history of the stock market Peter Lynch he's a world renowned mutual fund manager at Fidelity mellin Fund in his time he achieved a 29% annual return it was staggering numbers for a professional in the middle of uncertainties of the stock market he did it for 13 years continuously and that's hugely impressive the fund size during his tenure will grow from $18 million to $14 billion he had been so successful that he retired at 46 years old he's now spending his time sharing his success with everyone else Lynch has written three texts on investing one up on Wall Street beating the street and learned to earn the last named book was written for beginning investors of all ages mainly teenagers in essence one observed is a theory while beating the street in an application oneup lays out Lynch's investment technique including chapters devoted to stock classifications the two-minute drill famous numbers and designing a portfolio most of beating the street consist of an extensive stock bystock discussion of Lynch's 1992 Baron magazine selections essentially illustrating the concepts previously discussed as such both books represent steady material for investors of any knowledge level or ability Lynch also wrote a series of investment articles for worth magazine that expand on many of the concepts and companies mentioned in the books I found that when the Market's going down and you buy funds wisely at some point in the future you'll be happy you won't get there by reading now is the time to buy Lynch coined some of the best known mantras of modern individual investing strategies his most famous investment principle is invest in what you know popularizing the economic concept of local knowledge since most people tend to become experts in certain Fields apply this basic invest in what you know principle helps individual investors find good undervalued stocks Lynch uses this Principle as a starting point for investors he's also often said that the individual investor is potentially more capable of making money from stocks than a fund manager because they can spot good investments in their day-to-day lives before Wall Street throughout his two classic investment primers he's outlined many of the Investments he found when not in his office for example in oneup Lynch explains how we invested in Dunkin Donuts not after reading about the company in the Wall Street Journal but after being impressed by their coffee as a customer assuming others would be similarly impressed and noting the company's Boston locations were always busy he then studied the company's financial status and decided to invest in Dunkin Donuts which proved one of the best performing stocks he ever bought Lynch believes the individual investor can make similar smart investing choices by noticing particular opportunities like dunin donuts or paying attention to business Trends in their careers and hobbies using examples from mellin fun his books outline how a novice should read and interpret company paperwork for information on stock valuation earnings cash flow and other data Lynch has stated in one up on Wall Street that his undergraduate studies in philosophy and logic were more important to his career than the math or Finance he studied for his MBA at Wharton he came to believe that the two prevailing investing theories in Academia the random walk hypothesis and the efficient market hypothesis were contradictory the concepts taught by professors at school were regularly disproved by professionals during his internship at Fidelity he thus came to rely more on practitioners than theoreticians it seems to me that what was supposed to help you succeed in the investment business could only help you fail quantitative analysis taught me that the things I saw happening at Fidelity couldn't be happening Lynch has also argued about Market timing stating far more money has been lost by investors preparing for Corrections or trying to anticipate Corrections that has been lost in the corrections themselves he also coined the phrase 10 bagger in a financial context this refers to an investment which is worth 10 times its original purchase price and comes from baseball with a number of bags or bases that a batter can run to is a measure of the success of that runner's hit a baseball player who hits a home run will pass all four bases and so such a hit is sometimes called a four bagger similarly a baseball double hit is sometimes called a two bagger as Lynch wrote in one up on Wall Street in my business of War bagger is nice but a 10 bagger is the fiscal equivalent of two home runs and a double during the stock market crash there's one important factor that a person must keep in mind that is to study history it's the most trustworthy Source you can derive your lessons from here is what you can learn from history when the stock market Falls it will keep spiraling deeper and deeper and hit lows for quite a while if there have been 93 years in the century thus far and the market declines by 10% or so around 50 times in this time on the average the Market would decline once every 2 years with the fall being more than 10% it is referred to as a correction it's just the rewarding of losing a great amount of money that's invested in the stock market then it needs to be noted that out of 50 declines 15 times the market has fallen below 25% thus becoming a bare Market again simple math shows us that every 6 years or so the market will turn into a bearish market and drop below 25% just remember these patterns at the end of the day the market is is bound to go down some or the other day and if this fact is ignored owning stocks is more harmful than not owning them it's not a bad own at all if you think about opportunities that come along when there's a crash in the market a stock that you prefer will come for $6 from what its priced would have been in normal market conditions of $14 if you understand the market and the company whose stock you buy by looking at their performance on the balance sheet you'll realize that it's not doing anything bad now under the normal Market you would have reached from 14 to 22 $ which is a good return imagine the market has crashed and the stock prices are much less it can go from $6 to $22 you need to take advantage of declines as they can boost your Returns on investment they're going to decline but no one can predict them from happening understanding what you own means that you'll know when you're at the advantage there are many investors who will buy a stock based on intuition along the lines of if a stock has gone down a certain percentage then how much further can it go down an astute example be that of a polar ride when its share price started to fall people waited for it to fall before they attempted to capitalize on the low price they felt that there will be growth in the future they looked at it and said once the price starts to fall below $100 we'll start investing then the price share fell so hard that by the end of the year prices had hit an all-time low of $18 the company had no debt at all and the share price was overpriced that the share was bound to go down the same was the case with Kaiser Industries who held 40% of the share shares they had 40% of Kaiser Aluminum and almost 32% of Kaiser cement they had also investments in broadcast sanding gravel and engineering and owned the automobile company of Jeep the company too had no debt in its Financial structure after all it's very hard to go bankrupt when you have no debt the company at $3 was selling at $75 million they gave away all their shares to their shareholders of all the companies that were held by them this share was distributed they were getting about $50 a share he says he loves the volatility of the market he tells a story of the year 1973 when the Taco Bell shares dipped from $4 to $1 even though the company didn't have any debt nor did they have a restaurant of theirs closed down they went on to buy the share when it hit $7 he stuck with the stock even when it went to $1 the fund he managed mellin had reached the largest position in 1978 when it was bought out for $48 by pepsic Co he believed that the stock could have reached $400 if not for the buyout he believes that callers are very important it isn't good when there is too much volatility for the public and therefore the limits on the same are important then it's to be noted that the market will go up and down there will be some or other left field events that will alter the market hence volatility cannot be stopped but then it's an opportunity for the investor you need to know what you own and there's no other way out after all if they don't want to know what they own then they can try mutual funds once again going back to history it can be easily observed that basic corporate profits have gone up by 8% a year hence they double about every 9 years again using simple math which pushes the stock to also double every 9 years it's then easy to expect that market if it's 3,800 today then there will be up and it will not go down it might not be easy to predict what to happen for the next 500 to 600 points after all history tells us that the market will double up in the next 8 to 9 years profits will rise 8% every year and the stocks will fall as simple as they can be he speaks about his experience in October of 1987 when he was convinced about the stability of the market he didn't worry about the market and it hurting its Investments he even decided to take a vacation to the country of Ireland to play golf with his wife he left for his vacation and the market fell 55 points straight away when he landed in Ireland he got the shocking news when he called his office to learn that the market had gone down even more to 112 points he still decided to stay for the weekend and hoped for better news from the market in due course of time by the following Monday then on Monday the news hit on that the stock market had fallen 508 points this affected the fund handled by Peter Lynch by quite a negative margin the fund went from 12 million to 8 million in a few days it was so drastic that if the trend continued by the end of the week he would end up exhausting his fund after all it was the whims of the market that were taking a toe on the fund there was not not much that could be done by him due to the time difference there was a bit of a delay as in Ireland the time was already 12:00 while New York was still running at 7:00 he played a bit more golf to kill time and then started to keep track of the market there were no signs of improvement from the market at all there was nothing that could be done but to wait and watch the market hopefully improve the shareholders of the firm were also getting worried as it was after all their money being washed down by the drain due to the sudden downfall on the market it was just going to be waiting and watch watching he claims that despite his record whenever the market went down his fund the mellin also went down it went down nine times in 13 years following suit with the market which also has just as many downfalls at the end of the day if you put $1,000 in stock you'll end up losing just that $11,000 and nothing more if you made the right call then you might end up with 10,000 or 20,000 or 30,000 make sure you know the company you've brought in and out if they're doing all right and doing everything everything else right you'll add to their success selling a stock when it faces slight turbulence is just a tragedy at the end of the day the market is bound to recover and rise to a level where it's better than before it's like tossing a two-headed coin where the head stands for growth a long-term investor who's ready to play the long game and thwart the fall in the market would do well with stocks
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