저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 시장은 레버리지 해소 후 반등 국면이며 Tom Lee는 강세를 보지만, 기술주(나스닥100/QQQ)는 과열로 약 300달러까지 하락 가능하다고 본다. [시장 상황] VIX가 지난주 30 부근까지 올랐다가 오늘 26까지만 상승 후 사실상 0 수준으로 마감했다. 기관 현금(dry powder)은 약 3.065조 달러로 2020년 5월 고점에서 내려왔고, 레버리지 축소는 건강한 신호라고 설명한다. [강세 근거] 백신 접종과 소비자 신뢰에 힘입은 경제 모멘텀이 지속되면 급등 가능성이 더 높다. 최근 조정은 큰 상승 전의 준비 과정이라는 입장이다. 출연자 Shi는 인플레이션 우려가 있지만 장기 하락으로 이어지지 않고 주식은 계속 보유하는 것이 낫다고 본다. [금리·달러] Mike는 연준 의사록에서 테이퍼링 논의가 언급됐으나 실질 변화는 크지 않다고 보며, 달러는 이미 저점 근처까지 밀려 있었다고 설명한다. 금리는 박스권에 머물고 신용시장은 안정적이라 이번 하락은 거시 요인이 아니라는 입장이다. [기술주 전망] Tom Lee는 기술 섹터가 컨센서스에 쏠린 과밀 거래라 비중 축소를 권한다. 나스닥100 또는 QQQ가 약 300 수준까지 내려갈 수 있다고 보며, 비트코인 흐름이 나스닥 방향의 선행 지표가 될 수 있다고 언급한다. 다만 S&P500이 10% 오르더라도 기술 섹터가 그만큼 오르지는 않을 것이라고 본다. [섹터 로테이션] 소비자 자금과 관심은 억눌린 수요가 있는 곳으로 이동할 것이며, CDC가 크루즈 등 활동 권고를 완화하면 그동안 회피됐던 종목으로 자금이 재배치될 수 있다고 본다. [리스크] 인플레이션 충격으로 단기 변동성이 커질 수 있고, 현금 유동성이 투입되지 않으면 조정이 심화될 수 있다는 점이 위험 요인이다.
다듬은 글
Good day to you both. Tom Lee, I'll start with you. What do you think about today's rebound and intraday buying after this morning's strong market shake-up? I guess whether we're talking about stocks or Bitcoin—it's your choice. Well, I think both markets have been watching the VIX index very closely because, you know, last week the VIX peaked at 30 or just below 30, and it was a minor fluctuation.
And today there was an attempt to increase volatility, but the VIX could only rise to 26, and then it seems to have ended the day at practically zero. So I think that the last couple of days have seen a market clearing, a significant reduction in leverage, which is a healthy phenomenon, and one of the indicators of this is the amount of institutional money in the market, which is now 3.065 trillion.
This is actually a step away from the peak values of May 2020 . So, hedge funds and institutional investors have accumulated so much cash in the past few months that the amount of “ dry powder” on the bench is almost the same as last year. So what? Do you think this will trigger a new round of growth?
Do you think the market has bottomed out, even tech stocks? Is that what you mean? Sara, that's a great question, because the situation will be resolved in one of two ways. Or the market will suddenly lose all buying potential because all the money will be sitting idle, and we will see a serious drop.
But I think the chances of rapid growth are higher. So as long as the economic momentum continues, partly thanks to vaccination and consumer confidence, I think we'll see growth. I believe there has been significant consolidation in recent days, but this is just a prelude to a big move up in the stock market.
Shi, what are your thoughts on this? Well, we are certainly still very positive about the stock market. At this point, we see concerns about inflation. But, you know, this is not news anymore, and we think that inflation will certainly cause a lot of volatility in the markets, as we see today, but in the end it will not be so bad, and it will not lead to a prolonged sell-off .
So, regardless of where you invest in the market , I think it's important to stay invested right now, especially with inflation, because holding a lot of cash doesn't make much sense. Mike, if you look at the US dollar, for example, there was a move after the Fed minutes were released, where the Fed mentioned that it was discussing discussing considering tapering stimulus only if economic conditions continued to improve, without signaling a significant change in the schedule, but that seemed to trigger a move in the dollar and Treasury yields .
Is there any reason to believe that the fundamental concern about higher rates and higher inflation has changed enough to send the market into a sharp rally, as Tom Lee says? In fact, there is no reason to believe that much has changed. You have to look very closely to see changes in the margins. Even for the dollar, it was so stretched to the downside, almost near the lows.
So I think maybe the fact that the Fed has hinted a little bit more that there are a few voices in the committee talking about the need to start discussing talks about tapering stimulus. I mean, this is ridiculous. But yeah, I really think that was enough of a signal that we're on a path where we're going to have to watch for this, and it's a question of when, not if, it's going to happen.
So maybe that was a little bit of the point, but the rest of the market wasn't, and yields remain in range. Credit markets, as I always emphasize, remain absolutely stable. They don't have anywhere much to grow, but they're certainly holding up well. So, this suggests that this wasn't really a broad uprising of asset classes against the outlook.
It wasn't really related to macroeconomics, this small pullback in stocks. Tom, I just wanted to go back to what you were saying just now, because it seems like last time you said the Nasdaq 100 still has the potential to fall 5-7% before it goes up, but now you're saying you're leaning toward the likelihood of a sharp rise.
What would that growth be, and how do you balance these two opportunities? We still believe investors need to reduce their positions in the technology sector. You know, it's a consensual and overloaded deal. So we think the Nasdaq 100 or QQQ should go down to around 300. I would even say that Bitcoin's dynamics could be a kind of harbinger of what the Nasdaq is going to do.
But the rest of the market could grow. And you know, if the S&P goes up 10%, I don't think the tech sector is going to fall. I just think it won't grow by nearly 10%. But, you know, the reason why this sector is crowded is because consumer money and interest will be focused on where there is pent-up demand.
And that, you know, we'll see. If the CDC relaxes its recommendations for other activities, particularly cruises, I think investors who have been avoiding many of these stocks will start to refocus. So I think there are mechanical reasons why investors should reduce their exposure to technology companies. .
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