저자: MarkFaber/인터뷰중CarlIcahn발언인용 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 시장은 거대한 체계적 위험을 안고 있으며 결국 자산가격의 대폭 디플레이션으로 이어질 것이라는 경고. 버블 진단: Carl Icahn은 저금리가 역사상 유례없이 장기간 유지되며 시장에 버블이 형성되고 있고 매우 위험할 수 있다고 주장. Faber도 이에 동의하며 Fed뿐 아니라 ECB 등 중앙은행들이 버블을 키웠다고 지적. 중앙은행 비판: 중앙은행은 문제를 해결하지 않고 연기만 하며, 그리스 구제를 반복하면서 개별 위험이 결국 거대한 체계적 위험으로 커진다고 주장. 자산별 진단: 나스닥(2000년), 2007년 미국 주택·신용 버블을 과거 사례로 언급. 현재는 주식뿐 아니라 빈티지카, 우표, 고급 와인, 고급 부동산까지 버블 상태라고 봄. 경기·소득: 경기회복 6년차이며 금융자산은 크게 올랐으나 실질임금·가계소득은 평평하거나 하락해 시장 왜곡이 크다고 평가. 이 왜곡이 자산가격의 대규모 디플레이션으로 해소될 것이라고 전망. 대안 자산: 금·은 현물과 금광·은광 주식을 추천. 다만 미국·유럽·스위스에서는 위기 시 금 보유자에게 책임을 묻고 몰수할 위험이 있어 아시아 등 해외에 실물을 보관하라고 권고. 리스크: 은행 예금도 안전하지 않을 수 있다고 경고.
다듬은 글
all right, we got some optimism about Greece today, but it's clear we are still in a very challenged spot economically. Some investors are sounding the alarm, saying, you know what, you get all this financial engineering happening right now, where companies are gobbling up each other in all these M&A, mergers and acquisitions transactions, and then they get all these stock buybacks and all these dividend plays, and none of this is really sustainable.
In an exclusive interview, billionaire investor Carl Icahn tells me he believes we are in a bubble, and it could be, quote, an extremely dangerous one. Listen to this: "The financial markets, I believe, there really is a bubble brewing, and interest rates now are at a low that, in the history of the Federal Reserve, they've never been held down this long. I don't think anyone will deny that it's uncharted territory, and it could be very, very destructive."
All right, I want to go to another famed investor right now, Mark Faber, publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, who's joining me with his take on these markets. Mark, you heard Carl Icahn there saying this market is basically nuts, the Fed is fueling all of it, and he thinks they need to raise rates right now. What are your thoughts? Are we in a bubble?
Well, I think Carl Icahn just said that it could be very destructive. I would say it's not that it could be destructive, it will be destructive. The question is obviously when. Because it's not just the Fed that has fueled the bubble. It's the other central banks, the ECB, that has fueled the bubble, mostly in sovereign debt, and bailed out Greece repeatedly. As they bailed out Greece repeatedly, the problem became bigger and bigger and bigger. This is the problem of central banking today: they do not solve problems, they postpone problems, and then you have this suppression of individual risks that become, one day, a colossal systemic risk.
So that's the concern we have, a colossal systemic risk. You're talking about what's going on. Yes, we not only had a bubble in NASDAQ stocks, but basic stocks in the year 2000, and mining stocks were all depressed. Today, and then in 2007 we had a housing-related bubble and the credit bubble in the US, but other markets were not really in a bubble. But today, you look at vintage cars, at stamps, at fine wines, at high-end property. I know everything is in a bubble.
So everything's in a bubble. You're talking about all the problems there in Europe. What about the problems back here at home? The Fed has kept rates, and by all indications intends to keep rates here at zero for the foreseeable future. Does that feed into this, Mark?
Well, basically we are six years into an economic recovery. I'm aware that some economists and strategists think the economic expansion will just continue to go along, but there are huge distortions in the markets. Financial assets have been going up very substantially, while real wages for the typical household, or real household income, have been either flat or down. So it's created huge market distortions, and I think eventually this will be resolved by a massive deflation in asset prices.
With that in mind, very quickly, because we're nearly at a time. What would you recommend people buy? I know you've been a gold bug for a while, and given your deflationary scenario, I imagine you're still pushing that.
I tell you, it will be very difficult to hide, because even bank deposits may not be safe. But relatively inexpensive are gold mining shares, silver mining shares, and physical gold and silver. But you have to hold it physically, and preferably outside the US.
Outside the US? Why outside the US?
Because in the US, and even in Europe and Switzerland, there is a threat that one day, when things really go bad, central bankers will blame the gold holders for the disaster, and they will say, we'll have to take the gold away, and so forth. This is less likely to happen in Asia.
All right, so we need to fear the government taking our gold from our basement. You're really taking it, it happened before, in 1933.
All right, Mark Faber, thank you very much.
Pleasure.
Some warning there from Mr. Faber that we are looking at a systemic problem in these markets. He, of course, is echoing what we've heard from a number of people as of late: Carl Icahn, Bill Gross, expressing concern about these markets. And of course, Mark Faber there today with us, saying he's very concerned. I do have a program.
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