저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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기술주와 비기술주가 반대로 움직이는 이유는 펀더멘털이 아니라 기관의 자금 이동 메커니즘 때문이라고 진단. 연준의 금리인하 폭(25bp vs 50bp)에 따라 자금이 기술주에서 주택·경기민감주로 이동했다가 다시 돌아올 수 있다고 봄. 애플 아이폰16 선주문 부진이 애플·브로드컴·ARM 매도를 촉발했으나 기술주 자체의 문제는 아니라고 주장. 개인투자자에게는 이 흐름을 쫓지 말고 기다리라고 조언.
다듬은 글
coming to you from San Francisco tweet me at Jim Kramer how do we get to this bizarre dichotomy between tech stocks and pretty much everything else where the two groups now almost always seem to move in opposite directions take today with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 228 points SB advaned 0.13% but the NASDAQ with all that teet it Dropped a Bomb yeah it fell 0.52% how could there be such a Schism it's because there's not enough money coming in from the sidelines so these big institutions have to swap out of one group if they want to buy stock in another yet this action is has nothing to do with the fundamentals it's not about the news it's about pure Market mechanics when stocks are already RedHot it's hard to attract new capital from the sidelines especially we can get a cozy 4% return for doing nothing so either Tech wins or everything else wins but there's not enough cash for both of them to win at the same time so what happens we get winners and losers not big Winners and smaller winners as you would normally expect on an upate like today this is all against the back drop with the big question will the FED cut rates by 25 basis points or 50 when it meets on Wednesday now you know me I try to refrain from this parlor game of guessing the fed's next move based on the strength of the economy last week when the Wall Street Journal indicated the FED may actually be leaning toward 50 basis points we got this Great Migration though into the cical especially anything related to housing of course last week there was just enough good news to propel the entire Market which is why it was the best week of the year hey don't forget we had major Gams in Tech because Larry Ellison the founder of Oracle reported earnings last Monday and said that this company had 162 data centers still need another 1,000 maybe 2,000 that on Wednesday Invidia Jensen Wong spoke as part of a Goldman Sachs fireside chat talking about how hard it is to allocate his best chips because everybody wants some sure enough the next day at an oracle analyst meeting Larry Ellison again told the story of a recent dinner he had with Jensen and uh Elon Musk which he described as him and must begging Jensen for gpus of course that's invidious product now you might think these high quality problems with overwhelming demand could continue to resonate in today's session but then you'd be really wrong the big Winners today were the cyclical stocks including housing we also had some solid performance in the banks and a good return from the consumer products companies some is not supposed to happen when the fed's cutting race but all of Tech save Oracle again from last week IBM and Intel which has some good news about a partnership with Amazon after the close stagnated or fell flat on their faces which leads me to this new found Great Divide between Tech and non-tech because that's how this Market seems to be trading it's a big reason why I'm out here in Silicon Valley this week today we saw a market that doesn't believe in ai ai or Tech in general for that matter it's a market that believes a 50 basis point rate cut will shift money from semiconductors to housing and anything housing related and people want to get ahead of that today the Winter's broadened out the healthcare stocks got Jiggy retailers work consumer package Goods companies outperform even the much mign oils are rally it's crazy Healthcare consumer product should be sell off when the cyles were but that's not what's happening because it's ABT no I'm not talking about the symbol for abot labs for sake ABT means anything but Tech and that's what today's market was about oh the implications are pretty Stark people Market commentators call this a rotation but that understates what's really happening here because the move is so vicious and devoid of realism the Market's action is dictating what we do for example we know that the principal beneficiaries are rate Cuts namely the housing stocks were order today this is the second day these stocks jump because more morage rates continue to plummet that's how lard tol and Horton can all hit highs makes sense day one last Friday we had enough money to go around that's why today the Dow Rift of a lot of tech could hit all-time high levels but today day two was also Zero Sum the money poured out of say apple on word from a select few firms that the weekend's pre-orders for the new iPhone 16 were anemic more on that later all you need to know is the cause an eruption of selling and anything connected to Apple including broadcom and arm holding hey we got them on tonight let's see what they have to to say the weakness in the Magnificent 7 was palpable led by Nvidia which came back down after last week's miraculous run the thing is it's not that W Street's turning against Tech it's just that there's not enough money coming in so if fund managers want to buy something new they're selling their biggest winners to raise money and the biggest winners are in Tech money's coming out of these stocks like a dam breaking with Newfound river flowing into beaten down stocks like worldle off 17% for the year Ulta off 20 both stocks were up huge today again this is just the mechanic of money management speaking there's nothing wrong with tech as you will hear later from arm I think you going tell very good story this is incredible hey by the way I think you're going to hear good things from broadcom business is simply booming massive upside Micron which was down awfully today is having a tremendous moment semiconductors and PC sales are bottoming while high bandwidth AI chips sales are soaring now we don't know if Apple's new iPhone 16 is a hit you can't even buy one it's from Friday for ad sake but early reports of week pre-orders stories I doubt are causing the stock to get slammed because money managers need to raise cash to position themselves for the FED meeting Apple shares are being sold to fund buys and the world pools in the Altus and yes Nvidia that Stock's still struggling since that last earnings report nvidia's doing better than ever but it doesn't matter Nvidia is like the rest of tech almost all these stocks are just share donors to the rest of the market so you look that's descriptive what happens next look we are at a difficult juncture Traders not investors but big institutional Traders are the ones in the driver's seat they're making the prices that you see as long as we expected only a 25 basis point cut there was a decent amount of money being allocated to both groups Tech and non-tech but the 50 basis point cut shatter that tipped the scales out of tech into all sorts of stocks that will get clobbered If the Fed doesn't deliver on a double rate cut if that's the case the FED only cuts by a quarter of point then we're going to have a wholesale shift back to those companies that don't need a double rate cut to thrive most of the high-profile techs don't need the double rate cut they don't need a single rate cut so the money should flow back into Tech after this initial sell off that we're probably going to get when the FED talks about 25 so what are you supposed to do I think it's simple I know it's boring I want you to sit in your hands there's so much hot money coming out of tech and into non-tech I don't want you to get in the way of that because without a half point cut I'd say that the non-tech part of the stock market will have suddenly become overvalued why am I so circumspect about this moment simple because nothing's really happening save the launch of the iPhone 16 which doesn't technically happen on the 20th yet it's already considered a bust yeah thanks a lot bottom line if we only get a quarter point cut all of that money that came into the non-tech hoping for immediate better times it flows right back to where it came from the tech stocks that got sold today it's silly it's infantile it's confusing it's a total impenetrable mess unless you've seen it before take it from a grizzled veteran don't try to chase this move it's not worth it you will just be fing away your hard earned cash let's take calls let's start with Nick in California Nick hey Jim long time listener first- time caller I just had a question about this whole crypto Market do you think it's a good time to buy the stock coinbase if you think the crypto Market is good don't buy coinbase go buy the uh why you buy an ETF for uh Bitcoin or go buy ethereum those are the direct place you don't want an indirect play go for the best go for the simple Jeff in Kentucky Jeff hey Jim I'm a longtime member of the investment club and appreciate everything you and Jeff do for us thank you very much for saying that we work pretty hard Jeff's not out here with me I'll tell him you said that probably watch a show what's going on all right well good hey Jim one of the Investments I have that is outside of the club Holdings is lamb research uh lrcx symbol it's had a rough couple of months losing about 400 points and uh it didn't really participate in this teken chip rebound we've seen over the last couple of weeks and and uh after the day it's about 120 points below its 200 day moving average jef I gotta tell you I think lamb is dramatically oversold I think it could be a coiled spring maybe it has 50 down but I think it have 200 up I agree with you and I know the company for a very long time certainly more than the traders who are dumping it right now so anyway don't try to chase this move out of tech please I've seen this kind of thing before it's just not worth your effort it will just involve you churning your dollars and losing money oh mad tonight I'm kiing up my week on the west coast with broom's top R they hardly ever talk after a big bounce back last week I'm getting a better read on where the stock stands in the AI space then elf Beauty's report sent to stocks lower despite a top and bottom line beat so you're getting a real opportunity to buy this great beauty company again at a bargain on Co with the SE and later I've got a s with arm Holdings on the heels of it one year IPO anniversary so stay with
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