저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 액면분할 자체는 가치를 만들지 않지만, 개인투자자 유입을 자극해 시장 상승을 이끌 수 있으니 분할 가능성이 큰 기업들에 주목하라는 주장. 핵심 주장: 액면분할은 순수한 속임수(금융 연금술)에 가깝지만 소액 개인투자자는 낮은 주가에 열광한다. 시장 배경: 당일 다우 +290포인트, S&P500 +1.4%, 나스닥 +2.13%. 애플(4:1)과 테슬라(5:1) 분할 발표가 호재로 작용. 개인투자자 흐름: 2001년 닷컴 붕괴, 2007~2009년 금융위기 이후 이탈했던 개인이 저수수료 환경에서 다시 유입됨. 로빈후드 이용자 약 1,300만 명이 강력한 세력으로 언급. 데이브 포트노이 언급: 3~4개월간 주식은 오른다는 단순한 철학으로 전문가를 앞서는 성과를 냈다고 평가. 분할의 실질 효과: 기관(펀드)은 고가주식이 수수료 측면에서 유리하고, 개인은 주당 가격이 낮을수록 매수 심리가 커진다. 2014년 애플 7:1 분할은 당시 큰 관심을 끌지 못함. 분할 유력 후보 10곳: 아마존, 알파벳, 치폴레, 넷플릭스, 엔비디아, 어도비, 코스트코, 홈디포, 페이스북, 마이크로소프트. 서비스나우, 덱스컴, 유나이티드헬스, 클로락스, 쇼피파이도 거론. 조건/리스크: 분할 발표 후 주가 상승이 지속될 것이라는 기대가 전제이며, 분할 자체의 가치는 없다고 본인도 인정. 출연자 전망: 분할 기업 주가가 신규 개인 자금 유입으로 강세를 보일 것이라는 낙관적 시각.
다듬은 글
some kramer okay all right listen to me we know we know that splits stock splits create no value whatsoever they're pure sleight of hand right do i have more pencil they're financial alchemy but stock splits are also exactly what we need to help keep this market moving higher like we did today with the dow gaining 290 points sp jumping 1.4 and the nasdaq poll voting 2.13 in part because apple and tesla gave you some fantastic news about what i know should mean a thing a four for one and a five for one stock split respectively again no new value but boy do people love it there's a reason we have to feed the bull with more nourishing stock splits now i'm going to tell you why years ago individual investors deserted the stock market after the brutal losses of the dot-com implosion in 2001 the staggering declines the financial crisis 2007 2009 they gave up on the asset class oh every time they started tiptoeing back it started looking enticing something would go wrong the flash crashed 2015 mini crashes but in the past few years beating down individual investors as well as a lot of younger investors intrigued by low to no commissions finally started buying stocks again despite all the grey beards telling you it's impossible to beat the market despite the supposedly brilliant money managers warning you that the world was ending this spring this new crop of investors just keeps coming and coming on bye-bye the rally in the market and their emergence come on they're no coincidence oh these newbies they weren't deterred when warren buffett told them to stick to index funds now i got a lot of respect for buffett but he's never been good at timing the market hey not a style he'll tell you that so at least made some costly bad calls except for apple he did dump the airlines at the bottom some of that's american express that wells fargo whoa anyway the new generation investors doesn't really care about warren buffett i mean they think they only really know him from dave portnoy that's right they're more likely to follow this fellow dave portnoy from this album called barstool aka daveydaytrader this guy's a fascinating figure a sports guy who got into stocks after the pandemic canceled everything making it possible to battle sports now i know he's a real iconoclast portnoy who doesn't profess to know much beyond that stocks just go higher you may have a complaint with portnoy puerto rico's complaint but it's something that's made him very right over the past four months hey if you just started just started trading stocks in march and april i mean stocks do just go up right i mean that is his philosophy which is why this guy's been running circles around much more sophisticated professionals and they hate him i bring up portland because he embodies this retail investing revolution albeit in a more flamboyant less fundamental oriented way i mean the guy's having a great time we're trying to make money he does make money too but you get the picture individuals are storming the barricades breaking through the condescending conventional wisdom that says it's impossible to consistently beat the market like fang wait was that hard i got them from my kids yet people are picking stocks again using their own styles whatever works for them and for one i love it i love it if we can help educate you once you're in and we've nudged the process in a positive way well then two cheers for capitalism the vanguard of the revolution the 13 million traders on robinhood together with their little john and friar tuck fellow travelers they've become an incredibly powerful cadre i know because they've infiltrated my twitter feed even before we became covet prisoners they were constantly stopping me on the street and i loved that too it was pre-covered you know what their biggest complaint was that stock prices were too high no not too high like price earnings multiples and price to sales multiple not relative valuations they were talking about yes the literal stock price they simply couldn't buy enough shares in their favorite companies because their prices were too high which brings me back to stock splits every professional knows that this is meaningless one share of amazon at 3 160 is no different from 10 shares at 316 or 100 shares it's 31.60 in theory they're right but in real life people aren't calculators if you've only got 10 grand to work with then yeah a 300 stock feels a lot different than a 3 000 stock that i'm not denigrate 10 grand is a lot of money i lived in my car for everything i was doing it for 50 bucks anyway this moment reminds me of the 80s and 90s the greatest bull market of my lifetime when tons of regular people made fortunes buying and selling individual stocks including yours truly back then the stocks wanted the people what did they want they wanted stock splits and executives eager to please individual investors would give them splits that had shock value that enticed many investors into the market see these were they were great signals stocks splits were great signals of financial health and sales and earnings momentum like look at me look at me back then occurring pretty much when any stock reached the 100 dollar barrier and crossed it but as individuals got blown out big institutions came to the florida they love ultra high share prices because that meant lower commissions when you're a money manager you pay commissions on a per share basis so if apple does a four for one split each trade costs you four times as much and they don't like that in short splits are good for home gamers but bad for professionals but until recently there weren't that many home gamers apple did a seven for one split in 2014 nobody seemed to care now though something's changed elon musk the visionary behind the technology company this tesla has decided to split his 1500 stock uh uh in five pieces giving the robin hood cadre exactly what they want maybe it shouldn't have gone up but it did run up 13 today again stock splits create no value whatsoever i keep doing this so you get the picture this is no more pencils it isn't two large pens a half and a half we're talking about the difference between one dollar and four quarters exact same thing slightly different presentation you could say it's crazy for a stock to rally 13 on a split and you'd be right i said crazy like a fox because we know what happens after the split this new cohort of investors the ones who love low dollar amount stocks will start buying and holding these best of breed names rather than the darn penny stocks they've been ignoring these they've been buying crap now they're going to be buying good and the thing about retail investors is that they can make more for for a stable shareholder base in hedge funds because they the pros have no loyalty that's as soon short just go along yet ceos wake up i'm gonna be on this topic like white on rice because the stock market revolution will be televised at least by me so let me give you you know what i know what you want i'm going to give you the 10 companies that would be nuts not to split their stocks right here even as i know this creates no more value then i'm not going to i'm not wrecking any more pencils like ticonderoga is going to come after me all right one amazon i mean the world leader in retailer and cloud infrastructure i mean are you kidding me two alphabet which is showing signs of unlocking value if they bring more fresh entertainment supports to youtube the robinhood crowd would eat this thing up three chipotle hey the restaurant that's benefiting the most from the pandemic thanks to its digital prowess the tesla of burritos for netflix the five nvidia the intel barrier i think ceo jensen wong could could have an elon musk style colt if i definitely get that kind of following if he'd split the stock the guy's a modern day da vinci and a black leather jacket six adobe the digital media and marketing kingpin that's democratizes tech it helps businesses large and small harness the power of the internet shantanu i saw you on another show it's okay seven hold it yes costco this is the best brick-and-mortar retailer on earth i am a proud member but my wife is i'm a gold star my wife has got the black card you know what i mean um it's got the lowest prices the most motivated workforce center treasurer on shopping experience costco demanded mass when no one else would now everybody does it eight is home depot okay this is the kind of story where individuals will be saying wow it was so packed oh so this is so packed so good at responding the virus the best place to fix my house up with that low interest rate i want to buy the stock the stock's too high for the robinhood crowd they should reward shareholders with a split nine facebook cheryl mark i think the public relations problems are larger behind them and the move to help small businesses sell their goods will be huge finally ten microsoft this thing just made it in the 200 club which is the cutoff for what these new investors are willing to pay they love to own microsoft but not at 200 and change sadia can fix that with a press release hey look i'm going all day servicenow dexcom united health clorox shopify they're all great candidates for a split especially shopify which is knocking on the thousand dollar club because they help people sell stuff online today the idea that splits means anything i i know i know it's hersey but you know when i worked at goldman sachs in 83 it was gospel here's the bottom line logically stock split shouldn't matter but since when is the stock margin market logical in the real world with real humans splits obviously make a huge difference to a rapidly growing contingent of young individual investors if you want the market to keep climbing these 10 companies and many more need to start taking their cue from two guys i regard as pretty smart tim cook and elon musk let's call them the best ceos in america executives right now i'm just begging you look at what apple and tesla have done with their stock splits remember the size of the price tag matters with this crowd i've been around a lot longer than you have you want this no commission paying crowd in your stock
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