저자: TomLee · 외국인
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결론: 톰 리는 다음 주(8월 중순 전후) 경기민감주(에피센터 종목) 중심의 큰 로테이션 랠리를 예상한다. 근거: 미국 일일 확진자 수가 7월 27일경 정점을 찍고 7일 평균이 연속 하락 중이며, 지난 4월 정점 때는 정점 후 약 20일 뒤 시장이 회복·순환매로 전환됐다. 같은 패턴이면 8월 14일경이 전환점이라는 논리다. 밸류에이션: 빅테크(FANG 등) 성장주는 채권 대용 성격으로 비싸지 않다고 보며, 경기민감주는 시가총액 비중 26%에 선행 PER 약 15배로 신흥국 주식 수준으로 저평가됐다고 주장한다. 경제 전망: 고용지표에서 일자리 손실의 50%를 회복했고, 백신·치료제가 나오면 영구적 손상으로 보던 리스크가 완화돼 경기민감주가 크게 재평가될 수 있다고 본다. 다만 경제는 대공황 이후 최악의 침체이며 백신 전까지는 불확실하다고 인정한다. 종목: 폴라리스(PII 계열 언급), 베스트바이, BorgWarner, AutoNation, 모자이크 등 경기민감 종목을 제시하며 전반적 반등을 기대한다. 고품질 기업이 급락한 만큼 반등 여지가 크다는 입장이다. 수급 관점: 머니마켓 잔고가 약 5조 달러로 매수 여력이 크고 투자자들은 보수적으로 포지셔닝 중이라고 본다. 성장주에서 일부 자금이 빠져 로테이션이 일어날 수 있으나 FANG은 매도 대상이 아니라고 판단한다. 리스크: 경제 손상 회복 지연, 백신 불확실성, 확진 재증가 가능성.
다듬은 글
let's go right though to our special guest fun strats tom lee is back with us today tom you never shy away from making predictions and you're making another big one why next week for what you call a monstrous rally into your epicenter stocks hey scott yeah um happy friday we took a look at what happened the last time cases peaked which was late april and how many days before the market sort of decided that it was actually improving and then made a big violent rotation into the cyclicals or what we call epicenter it took 20 days last time and if we look at the current context daily cases peaked uh set july 27th the 20th day would be august 14th you know we've been seeing consistent seven-day declines in average daily cases but our clients are kind of thinking this is you know in the middle ground they're not clear if it's a decisive move so i think it takes another week and that's going to happen next week and i think it'll be a violent rotation really and even you think people are ready to get out of these stocks that have been so tried and true nasdaq closes above 11 000 for the first time yesterday clearly money still wants to go into big mega cap growth uh yes i mean i i think mega cap growth is cheap as a bond proxy because you're paying 50 times for an investment grade bond 180 times for a 10 year so paying 30 times for fang isn't expensive but when you look at the cyclical stocks these are the names that have been written off by the market you know it's only 26 percent of the market cap they're trading it around 15 times forward which is the same as an emerging market stock and we're talking about blue chip us names and so i i think that there is going to be a need for people to have exposure and if they think the trend in cases is falling and the economy is opening safely and look at the jobs number today we had you know we retraced 50 percent of the job losses i think the economy is healthy these cyclical stocks could rally big and it was over 30 percent in about two weeks it was a massive rally still have a long way to go though in the jobs market right yes of course we took a nice step in the right direction today yes but tom there was so much damage done and it's going to take a long time to get that back maybe you have to wait till the vaccine or otherwise i'm not sure yeah scott i mean that's right i mean the economy is you know is is a wreck i mean it's a there's a lot of carnage it's the biggest depression not in only our lifetime it's probably the biggest depression the us has ever experienced but what we have to keep in mind is like you said there's a binary event if we get a vaccine or a cure a lot of the things that we think are permanent changes and risks to the economy really start to mitigate and then again that makes these stocks you know vulnerable to a massive massive upside re-rate you've been more right than wrong and you deserve credit for that and we're going to see i mean you're literally saying literally quite literally saying next friday is the day that you're gonna get and you use the word monstrous not me that's that's your word what names are we talking about though tom you're a broad market watcher but you do uh bring specific names to the table what do our investors need to know yes well we published an updated list of this trifecta so i talked to our head of global strategy brian rauscher and rob schlemmer our technician and ken who does our quant model it's names like polti target best buy but it's also things like borg warner you know autonation and and potentially things like mosaics of some really deep cyclicals it's gonna be what we think a pretty broad-based rally but you know what people probably perceive as high quality companies that just got absolutely obliterated that could make a big balance interesting liz young you get the first crack at tom lee today what do you think about what he's saying here it's a very bold prediction um when it's you know maybe not that popular to make these kind of predictions but he is what do you think i love a bold prediction i have a question though you talked about valuations a lot and that that's going to drive some of this rally i think we use the word rotation too much as an industry and for it to really be a rotation it means that money has to come out of one group and that same money has to go into another group do you think that's really what's going to happen here or is it more that there's cash still coming off the sidelines that will be overweighted into some of those epicenter names uh yeah there's there's it's probably a little bit of both i think there is so much cash on the sidelines still i mean we can see it in the in the sentiment readings i can tell by talking to our clients they're very cautiously positioned and we see it in the money market balances it's still around five trillion dollars i mean a monster amount of buying power but i think there could be a rotation to the extent that people have been hiding out in growth names and there are some expensive growth stocks i don't think fang is what gets sold because these are companies that really survived a true stress test they're unkillable but i do think there's a lot of growth stocks that people are hiding in you
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