저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 코로나 관련주는 백신·정책 뉴스가 없어도 여전히 시장을 이끌 수 있다. 시장 개황: 다우 185포인트 상승, S&P500 0.64%, 나스닥 1% 상승. 개장 직후엔 약세였다가 반등. 재정 협상: 민주·공화당이 추가 경기부양책에 합의하지 못하고 있으며, 펠로시 하원의장과의 인터뷰에서 협상 난항이 드러남. 선거 3개월 전이라 양당 모두 합의 유인이 크다는 전망. 실업수당: 트럼프의 행정명령 가능성은 위헌 소지가 있지만 정치적으로 민주당을 곤란하게 만든다고 평가. 시장 시나리오: 1) 백신 기대+정부 지원 → 전반 상승, 2) 백신 기대+부양책 없음 → 성장주 강세, 3) 백신 뉴스 없음+중소기업 지원책 → 소형주 제한적 반등, 4) 백신·정부 지원 모두 없음 → 그래도 코로나 관련주는 상승 가능. 개별 종목: 페이스북 6% 상승(소상공인 플랫폼 역할), 인스타 쇼핑 긍정적, 이베이 계열 Etsy는 급등 후 조정, 세일즈포스 긍정적, 애플 장기 보유 추천(고객 생애가치 기반 리레이팅 기대), 마이크로소프트 틱톡 인수 가능성 언급, 디즈니 장기 성장주로 긍정적. 항공·여행: 국무부 여행금지 해제에도 항공주 반등은 실질 수요와 무관하다는 입장. 아메리칸항공 국제노선 선호, 사우스웨스트 언급. 호텔(메리어트), 카지노(LVS) 반등, 크루즈주(노르웨이안, 로열캐리비안)는 11월 이전 운항 재개가 어려워 과도한 반등으로 평가. 리스크: 현금 대기 전략도 언급하나 자신은 강세 입장 유지. 이탈리아 올리브유 사업 언급(무관).
다듬은 글
to make what happens if we're forced to reopen without fiscal or viral protection oh that's what this market was pondering on a day where the dow gained 185 points even though it looked bad at the opening the s p advanced 0.64 and the nasdaq jumped one percent a world where the democrats and republicans can't make a deal on the next round of stimulus so states have no choice but to open up open up everything using mass and social distancing as our only back stops because otherwise everyone goes broke you can't just stay stay stay shut down without the federal lifeline come on right the states don't have the money for it but the log jam in washington is starting to get very personal you could see that when i interviewed house speaker nancy pelosi this morning i may be naively asked if we could at least get a deal with the gop to help out minority-owned businesses in honor of the late great john lewis here's what speaker pelosi shot back can we give a huge chunk of money to the people who are disenfranchised to minorities who have want so badly to stay in business and can and to people who who are trying to go to college or have student loans who are minorities who are the most effective because they have the least chance in our country that's got to be something both sides can agree to perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn hmm well it doesn't seem like the kind of thing you say if the negotiations are making great progress in theory this deal should be a no-brainer for both sides it seems insane for republicans in congress to vote against a deal three months before an election out of some newfound concern for the budget deficit there's an election in three months for heaven's sake senator mitch mcconnell's majority could be in jeopardy this should be an easy call for them on the democratic side if they block a deal under the principle of go big or go home we know the president has said he'll issue an executive order to keep paying unemployment benefits that's clearly unconstitutional but politically it puts the democrats in real life what are they going to do those unemployment checks are a democratic priority you can't come out against them three months before an election because of something intangible like a separation of powers or checks balances yeah there's stuff from fifth grade so i think both sides end up with a compromise but maybe i'm not being cynical enough at the end of the day i'm a stock guy though not a politics guy however we need to talk about this political stuff now and then because yesterday we had a powerful rally based on hope for a vaccine and the possibility of a deal in congress today we had no vaccine news no testing news no nothing and the negotiations in washington seem to be going in the wrong direction yet we still rallied gotta ponder this it was just a different group that let us hire think of this market as a vicious rodeo where each day you have to switch balls notice this is not a bull fight something like the plural because the bull did nothing to deserve that torture trust me no it's more like the world's most frenetical rodeo and you need to figure it out if you want to understand today's winners and losers why did tel doc plummet yesterday and then bounce back today why did etsy get hammered today while facebook and apple exploded higher so you know what we got to do we got to talk about these balls and what happens when they burst out of the pen with you on top of them we'll number ones sees a vaccine right around the corner and more help from the government on the way this nirvana for the market right and everything moves up aside from the covent stocks poll number two has vaccine in its sites but no stimulus package that produces strengthening the growth stocks but not much more ball number three no vaccine news might be a meaningful stimulus bill that allows small businesses to survive without doing much to help traditional growth stocks finally bull number four no vaccine news whatsoever and no federal assistance whatsoever you might think that sounds like a bear but as we saw today the cramer covid 19 stocks can still lead us higher higher oh my about 15 trillion dollars worth of course there's always a twist today the state department and its infinite wisdom looked at all travel bans which is kind of funny when you remember that most countries now have travel bins on us i have a business in italy and they won't let me go see it because america is one of the worst outbreaks in the world wasn't italy the worst at one time we make olive oil i call it jim's none better but only on the show because my wife doesn't watch today we had the fourth kind of bull market so what happened first the big cap growth sucks they just went crazy i mean it was amazing facebook's become a lifeline for small businesses trying to transcend their brick and mortar prisons when your cities lock down or you have vigorously enforced social distancing with those things you know it's like you can stand here and then like here and then like here you ever see that you look down all i do is look down i wanna know the story these retailers have to find another way to apply the wares facebook makes that happen which is why i think it served six percent today insta shops fabulous ammo why not etsy what do you argue because no stimulus means people won't have enough money to buy stuff on their platform honestly i think etsy got slammed because it ran up way too much we're gonna find out later salesforce word of course is the king of the cloud it makes large enterprise more efficient some especially when it comes to landing and retaining new clients their customers don't need a bailout they'll be fine buy the stock how about apple i've been pushing this stock for years how many times have i said own it don't trade it now apple's finally getting the valuation deserves because wall street started starting to realize that it's the stocks going up based on the lifetime value of its incredibly loyal customers like a consumer package goods plate for years i have said this stock should have a much higher price to earnings multiple more like that say procter and gamble that's a classic razor razor blade business well yeah it's because they own gillette which is what apple's become no wonder the stock keeps surging it's a wholesale re-rating as they say on wall street microsoft rally two it's another coven winner that also might be able to buy tick-tock that's the at least the american business for a song thanks to the us government i i knew the president uh wants the government to get a cut that may sound completely ridiculous to you but honestly companies that get sweetheart deals from uncle sam really should kick back something in the treasury otherwise microsoft's getting a huge handout for free president's right what about disney do you think this would be a vaccine play uh-uh we've learned that disney's a growth stock with a fabulous streaming business and a huge balance sheet that will allow them to wait out the pandemic they're making a mint from disney plus while the parks the movie business and espn can all afford to wait until next year for a vaccine now sometimes you get these weird variations like i mentioned earlier the airline stocks rallied today because the state department lifted its international travel ban a comical move given that your american passport isn't worth the paper it's laminated on right now it's possible the airlines could get some made from the government but the rally was all about traveling to places you can't go if you went on an airline i always say uh buy southwest but the best performer is going to be american because there's a ton of international routes and because the robinhood traders adore the hotels with overseas properties soared to uh don't overthink it talk go to air uh by marriott that's what you always do uh lifting our travel ban no means next to nothing oh yeah the casinos this win in lvs even a couple of the cruise lines rallied norwegian royal caribbean despite the fact that most cruises are canceled until november at the earliest travel ban was not the problem doesn't matter the bottom line now you know the rodeo when you see the bull burst out remember you're the rider as long as you know which bull you're riding you know which stocks will rally on any given day of course you can always sit on the sidelines in cash as so many brilliant hedge fund managers or at least they play them on tv say this do so but so far bull riding it pays a lot bett
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