저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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결론: 현금은 쓰레기이며 분산투자가 핵심이다. 인플레이션 심리: 투자자들은 현금을 안전하다고 여기다가 인플레이션을 체감하면 현금·채권을 매도해 다른 자산으로 옮기고, 이 전환이 다시 인플레이션을 강화하는 자기강화적 순환이 나타난다. 역사적 사례: 1970년대에는 인플레이션이 끝나지 않을 것처럼 여겨졌고 채권이 최악의 자산이었다. 1980년대는 인플레이션 하락과 고금리로 채권이 최고의 자산이 되었다. 단기 전망: 당분간 긴축이 있을 것이며 이는 자산가격에 타격을 줄 것이라고 언급했다. 채권 평가: 채권은 타인의 부채를 보유하는 것이며 금리가 인플레이션율에 도달하지 못하므로 좋은 자산이 아니라고 주장했다. 권장 포트폴리오: 현금 대신 잘 분산된 자산(지역 사업, 주식, 소량의 금, 해외투자)을 보유할 것을 권했다. 상관관계가 낮은 자산을 섞으면 기대수익을 줄이지 않고 위험을 줄일 수 있다고 설명했다. 생존 자금: 소득이 끊겼을 때 몇 주를 버틸 수 있는지 계산해 안전 자금을 먼저 확보하라고 조언했다. 구매력이 연 3~4% 하락할 수 있다고 가정하고 위험자산이면 그 절반으로 계산하라고 했다. 자녀 저축: 자녀와 손주에게 명절·생일마다 금화를 주고 응급 상황이 아니면 팔지 말라고 한 습관을 소개했다. 주거: 주택 구매는 생활 기준과 강제저축 효과가 있어 대체로 좋은 선택이라고 답했다.
다듬은 글
uh investors think that cash is safe and they don't pay much attention to inflation and then what happens is they get inflation and they realize that if I'm holding cash I'm losing buying power so then they shift they sell out their uh cash or they sell out their bonds and they put that into other things and when they do that that also contributes to inflation changes like that also happen in a lot of ways like um um cost of living increases in in compensation you know where in the past when they don't worry about inflation um then they don't think about um do I have an inflation linked uh contract for my work or do I have enough inflation assets it might be I oh do I need to buy I'm going to store my money in a house or I might store my thing and so that pendulum swing from one mindset and one positioning to another mindset and another positioning in the early stages tends to be self-reinforcing those actions produce more inflation and more inflation psychology until that goes to the opposite extreme you know like in the 1970s that people were surprised about what happened because they weren't used to inflation much then you had the inflation and in the beginning it swung and then at the end of it they said inflation will never end and everybody's position for it never-ending and then of course what happens is it's so bad that then the Central Bank goes the opposite extreme and then they get surprised and so the 80s was a period which was the exact opposite of the 70s where you have falling inflation High real interest rates and so on and so the worst assets to own in the 70s were bonds and the best assets to own in the 80s were bots so you see these pen well um the best assets that's the most important thing I think is is cash and quoted cash is trash there will be a tightening here for the time being and that tightening will have an effect it'll it'll hurt asset prices and so on um but uh cash is not the isotold um and and bonds are not um good to own in my opinion because it's stat it's owning somebody's debt and you won't get a return think of it the interest rate will not reach the inflation rate so that's the problem so you'll have that one then what you have to have I think most importantly is a well-diversified portfolio of other assets diversification is a very powerful tool because it can reduce risks without reducing expected returns now there's lots of ways of getting what you think good Investments are they might be things you know about and the local businesses and so on or they might be uh stocks and or they could be maybe a little gold or maybe a little bit foreign investing diversification is very important to do that in a balanced way so um I would generally say that that would be what I would recommend um how many weeks could I live if I lost my income and I started counting in weeks and I would try to go out because if I got hit and so I think I think that's the way to do it you know you start to count how many weeks gonna be a month can a year can I get up to a year and I didn't like that because of the fact that there's an obligation and it's like oh if I get then I'm going to be drowning I'm trying to keep my head against water this is just my own biased but anyway count the how many you can um and then assume that it's buying power over the next number of years can fall by three or four percent a year or or if or if you put it in a risky investment it like stocks or something it could buy more so cut that number maybe in half and have twice as much because you have to understand that that's your freedom that is your safety so that first band you must take care of that first band take care of that once you get past that and you feel okay I could take care of my family and I could take care of mine in a worst case scenario then you have the freedom to then take other kinds of risks but when you're building that portfolio um it's the same thing as when you have a lot of portfolio past that just you want to diversify well because you could see what happens to the to the markets every Market stock market bond market most markets have had times where they've gone down over an extended period 60 or 70 percent so in buying power so I think diversify count that and build it and realize that you're um that you're saving I one thing I do for my um for my kids and grandkids and always did as long as I can start to afford it uh was um for every uh holiday like Christmas or their birthday I would give them a gold coin and I said I never want you to sell that gold coin until there's an emergency a real emergency not because you want to buy things and the reason I did that and they'll build over a period of time that'll that'll build something and I said don't even sell it you pass it to your kids unless there's an emergency okay and so you're building that savings because I think we um so easily spend so much money on junk you know so anything that I would give them whatever it would be I don't know a piece of clothing a a thing of a jig a toy or something right will probably be gone in a year yeah okay and so the power of staving and you know and that resource the relief it gives you and the power it gives you is so great so yes save it diversify it to find individual bets um that uh that are diversifying that your return will equal the average of those returns but your risk can be cut by 80 percent if you say if the worst case happened um what would that look like and I'm telling you like I'm saying that could be that the worst case is when you look at that is something like 60 or 70 percent in buying power whether that's stocks or bonds okay okay that's that's what the risk looks like however if you do that with uncorrelated Investments well when one goes up you know like when Commodities go up uh bonds go down or you know that kind of thing and you balance things then you find some part goes up and another part when the other part goes down and by doing that you can reduce uh the risk without reducing the return you know Investments are typically those things that you're closest to um and they fall into two types those that affect your living standards like I think owning a house or an apartment or your residence um it affects your life a lot and the cost of it is not the cost of it you know in other words you buy it at a certain price it's not like the thing that goes away and you consume so you'll sell it at a certain price and probably you'll modify it over a period of time you'll make things and it produces kind of a forced savings that also brings you Joy and brings you a better environment generally speaking so um I like I was just uh recently asked by a young couple should they should they buy that um I I forgot a little house or apartment or should they not and then they sort of say you know if I don't do that I I can travel more okay um but the travel will go away as an asset okay so just be mindful where that will save and think about also the joy that the house brings you so I I sort of think that uh that's generally a good thing to do keep thinking about the total return um
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