Peter Schiff Drinks While Talking The Fed And Airplanes

요약 보기

Peter Schiff은 연준(Fed)의 양적완화와 금리 정상화 시도를 비판하며, 연준이 긴축을 성공적으로 마무리할 수 없다고 주장한다. 핵심 주장: 양적완화는 마약처럼 중독성이 있어 끊기 어렵고, 금리 인상과 대차대조표 축소(정상화)는 사실상 불가능한 과제다. 비유 근거: 테이블보를 식기 밑에서 잡아당기되 접시가 공중에 떠 있어야 한다는 식으로, 정상화는 불가능한 묘기라고 설명한다. 비유 근거: 비행기 이륙 후 착륙하지 못하는 조종사, 착륙장치 없는 항공기에 빗대어 연준의 성공을 조기 자축하는 것을 비판한다. 과거 발언 언급: 양적완화를 '통화 로드모텔(check in but never check out)'이라 불렀고, 속편 영화에 비유해 되돌릴 수 없는 경로라고 경고했다고 회상한다. 시장 관련: 미국 주식을 사들인 투자자들은 연준이 실물 경기를 회복시켰다고 믿었으나 모두 틀렸다고 주장한다. 다만 구체적인 가격 목표, 기간, 종목 방향에 대한 언급은 없다. 리스크: 금리 정상화 실패 가능성과 자산시장 거품 붕괴 우려가 전제되어 있다. 출연자 전망: 향후 연준 정책이 지속 가능하지 않으며 시장 신뢰가 틀렸다는 장기적 비관론이다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. remember I kept talking about the fact that the easy thing to do was to you know liquor the economy up right the easy thing to do was to get every you know get hooked on drugs the hard part or the impossible part was kicking the habit that's what the Fed can't do you know they were trying to take credit for a successful policy before they actually did the hard part right or it's like a pilot takes off the airplane he's you know while he's still in flight he's celebrating a successful flight but he hasn't landed yet and of course he hasn't told a the passengers that not only doesn't he know how to land the plane because he didn't take that many lessons but the plane doesn't even have any landing gear and it's running out of fuel right I mean so just because she got the plane up in the air you can't take credit for a successful flight until you successfully landed the plane on the ground well that was always something that the Fed could never do I knew they couldn't do that that's why from the very beginning I called quantitative easing a monetary Road motele why did I say that because I knew the Fed could check in but they could never checked out right I said we would have more Chuy's and Rocky movies when they did Chewie won why did I say that because I knew that once the Fed went down this path there was no turning back it was impossible to get out of this I mean why do you think I described it the way I did right people said well it's gonna be a difficult trick for the Fed to try to do this to normalize interest rates and and shrink his balance sheet but everybody was confident in the feds dexterity to pull this trick off and what did I say I said no the trick that they are trying to accomplish is impossible I said I smell like they're the magician trying to pull a tablecloth out from under the dishes right where the dishes don't fall down right that's that's a difficult trick but at least it's possible you can do it if you practice I said what the Fed needs to do in order to unwind his balance sheet and normalize inches is the equivalent of pulling the table out from under the cloth and then the cloth and the dishes would have to remain levitated in midair which is an impossible trick no matter how much you practice it can't be done and that's what the Fed was looking at when it came to you know unwinding their balance she didn't normalize erase but the Fed continued to pretend that that's exactly what they were going to do and the markets continue to believe that that's what they were going to do and in fact everybody who believed the Fed was wrong you know all the people who have been buying US stocks all of these years because they were convinced that the Fed had created a legitimate economic recovery that everything was fine that all the problems had been solved all those people were wrong