저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
Faber는 귀금속 단기 하락 가능성을 인정하면서도, 생애 최대급 금융위기 대비를 위해 귀금속 비중을 크게 늘려야 한다고 주장. 전 세계 자산배분에서 귀금속은 약 1%에 불과하고 S&P500 내 광산주는 1% 미만이라고 제시. 주식·채권 시장은 과대평가되어 신용사건으로 붕괴할 것이며, 그때 반도체·기술주가 귀금속보다 더 크게 하락할 것으로 봄. 연준 실질 중립금리(테일러 준칙 기준 6% 이상) 대비 현재 약 4%로 아직 긴축되지 않았다고 주장. 실물 금·은을 싱가포르·두바이·홍콩 등 해외에 분산 보관할 것을 권고.
다듬은 글
A further decline in gold and silver is of course a possibility. People should prepare themselves for I mean really a lifetime crisis that is going to be devastating for asset holders, devastating. As an investor, I still think that people should have an allocation to precious metals and probably they should have much more in precious metals than they currently have.
Mark Faber warns that while a further drop in gold and silver prices is always possible, the bigger picture demands serious preparation. People must get ready for a devastating lifetime financial crisis that will severely hurt asset holders across the entire market. Despite any temporary pullbacks, keeping a strong position in precious metals remains essential for protecting your wealth.
In fact, most investors should probably hold a much larger share of gold and silver than they currently own right now. ; A further decline in gold and silver is of course a possibility. But uh we have to realize that although gold and silver and also platinum have gone up significantly uh compared to financial assets and to the size of the stock market and the global bond market uh the precious metals are not very large in terms of asset allocation.
In fact, uh globally, maybe around 1% is allocated to uh precious metals, and within the S&P 500, mining companies make up for less than 1% of the stock market capitalization. Now, I of course, I admit that the stock market capitalization is uh probably way overblown. Uh you understand? That it's going to deflate very badly.
But, despite of that, uh within a deflation in financial assets in the size in the stock market and bond market capitalization as a percent of the global economy, uh in that scenario, I suppose that gold and mining stocks would go down less than, say, the investors' favorite like SpaceX and Tesla and Nvidia and microtechnology.
So, as an investor, I still think that people should have an allocation to precious metals, and probably they should have much more in precious metals than they currently have, because when you go out and you talk to people and you say, you know, "What do you invest in?" And of course, they will say, "Yes, we have gold." But, uh how much, you know, compared to the real estate they own, compared to uh the allocation to semiconductor stocks they own, and so forth.
It's probably very small. And my view is in this world which increasingly looks like uh desperate and uh with wars and uh heading towards a major crisis at some point in future. In this environment I think people must think, "How do I lose the least money?" And precious metals are uh probably an instrument how to lose less money, in my view.
But uh I'm a little bit concerned about anything that has to do with paper. Stocks is a certificate is paper. I prefer philosophically and also in an emergency situation, I prefer physical precious metals. I would advise individuals to be diversified. And I would advise to be diversified in different asset classes.
In real estate, stocks, and precious metals, and commodities. And uh different sectors within the market. But I would also advocate uh geographical diversification because say I'm in the US. If I have all my money in gold in the US and suddenly Mr. Trump wakes up in the morning and says, "Oh, it might be a good idea to take the gold away from the citizens and put it in our vaults." Uh then you might be stuffed.
I don't think they will do that. I but I think they will take the gold away and pay for it. But they pay for it in dollars that will then become worthless. So under these conditions, you want to hold some of your assets in other countries, not the US. Or wherever you are, if you are in Zimbabwe, you want to keep some money outside Zimbabwe.
And if you're Canada, you want to keep some money outside Canada. And don't think that you hold something outside a country if you have a custody account and all the securities are in say State Street, Boston or in New York, in Manufacturers Hanover, Morgan JP Morgan you have to have the account actually physically or the precious metals physically in Russia or in China or in Singapore, Dubai, Hong Kong uh London, wherever.
Usually um not always, but usually uh investment bubble is uh burst I mean burst or is tricked by a credit event. Because the credit event will then tighten liquidity through market forces and not through some uh central banker who thinks that he can plan economic activity better than the market price.
The fact is simply that liquidity up to now, it may change overnight, but up to now, liquidity is very generous. In other words, there's no monetary tightness at all. And interest rates, despite all the rhetoric of central banks that they're increasing rates and this and that, the reality is that if we take a neutral interest rate, and we could define a neutral interest rate that we calculate according to the Taylor rule, whereby there many different methods to calculate the Taylor rule.
But according to every method under the Taylor rule, the Fed funds rate should be above 6%. I want to stress this, above 6% to be neutral, not to be restrictive, to be neutral. And at the present time, we are at about 4%. But that tells me that the Fed hasn't really tightened yet, not at all. Now, Mr.
Walsh has given the provided his view that he's he wants to tighten. He understands that if they don't tighten, inflation will get worse. I mean, the cost of living increase will get worse. People should prepare themselves for I mean, really a lifetime crisis that is going to be devastating for asset holders, devastating.
The people have nothing. They are not going to lose very much. But they will also suffer because once the people who have assets lose, their consumption will decline and there'll be less economic activity. Even though gold, silver, and platinum could see further short-term dips, they still make up less than 1% of global asset allocations.
Meanwhile, the broader stock and bond markets remain massively overblown. When a major credit event finally bursts this financial bubble, popular tech and semiconductor stocks will fall much harder than precious metals and mining shares. In an unstable world facing rising living costs and potential crises, the smartest goal is simply losing the least amount of money.
Despite talk of rate hikes, central banks have not truly tightened monetary policy, meaning real inflation will only grow worse because stock certificates and bank accounts are just paper promises. Owning physical gold and silver is essential for real security. Spreading your physical metals across safe international vaults like Singapore, Dubai, or Hong Kong also protects your hard-earned wealth against local government overreach and currency debasement. and drop your thoughts on silver in the comments below and see you next time.
Comments 0