저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 스태그플레이션 우려는 과장됐으며 주가는 지금 팔 시점이 아니라 시간을 두고 기다려야 한다는 주장. 스태그플레이션 우려 배경: 인플레이션과 경기침체가 겹치는 스태그플레이션 공포가 확산 중이며, 9월 고용 지표 부진이 이를 자극했다는 진단. 인플레이션 측면: 크래프트하인즈 CEO가 옥수수·설탕·팜유·대두·커피 등 원재료 상승으로 전 세계에서 가격을 올린다고 밝힌 점을 인용. 다만 원재료 가격이 내려오면 대형 유통업체가 가격을 낮출 수 있어 인플레는 영구적이지 않다고 봄. 물류 대란과 허리케인 아이다로 인한 화학공장 차질이 해소되면 점차 완화될 것이라 봄. 경기 정체 측면: 코로나 재확산과 델타 변이로 인해 노동 공급이 부족하고, 감염 공포로 고령자 조기 은퇴와 청년 구직 위축이 발생. 기업의 노동 수요는 강하므로, 유럽처럼 코로나를 통제하면 정체도 단기에 그칠 것이라 봄. 반도체·자동차: 칩 부족은 자본주의의 투자 확대로 결국 해결되겠지만 시간이 걸릴 수 있다고 봄. 자동차 구매 어려움도 칩 부족이 원인이라고 설명. 주식시장 전망: 자동 적립 투자 확산으로 개인 투자자의 주식 매수 흐름이 강하며, 기관 운용사가 비관적으로 돌아서는 시점이 오히려 기회라고 주장. 시장이 더 하락하더라도 저가 매수 기회로 봄. 리스크: 물가 상승은 실재하며, 유가 등락에 과도하게 반응하지 말라는 조언. 코로나 통제 실패 시 정체가 길어질 가능성은 암시적으로 존재. 출연자 전망: 시간이 필요하지만 패닉 매도는 금물, 상황은 생각보다 빨리 좋아질 수 있다는 낙관론. 시장 하락 시 매수 관점 유지.
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it after a rough day that started strong before turning weak dow only losing 250 points s p sinking 0.69 percent and nasdaq declining point six four percent sell sell you know what everybody's talking about they're talking about stagflation yep stagflation you hear it everywhere and the trumpet went overdrive this weekend it's the drumline like it's all the 70s again stagflation it's a combination of inflation with a stagnant economy sounds pretty bad doesn't it baby boomers like me fear the 70s the same way our parents fear the great depression that's why stagflation is well it's just as as ominous as it gets call me cockeyed optimist but i don't buy the stagflation thesis now don't get me wrong we've been living with inflation for a bit now i know that i'm not making that up i'm not i'm not going to try to sweep it on the rug we just got a very negative read from an authoritative source craft heinz in a depressing interview with bbc uh the ceo of craft heinz miguel patricio explained that he's raising prices all over the world why because of the inputs he has corn sugar palm oil soybeans coffee they've all been rising costs so the whole industry needs to pass these price increases on to you whereas the headline says people must get used to higher food prices well that's that's bad okay what about the stagnation side of the equation that didn't seem to be a problem until friday when we got the fred week jobs number the segflation story seems so obvious at this point that we got two separate not one but two separate strategy pieces about how to handle it this weekend one from barclays and one from goldman sachs the goldman piece is particularly sobering they point out that historically stagnation is bad news for everything but health care and energy stocks oh those are groups that's a pretty flimsy read to hang your hat on here plus it doesn't help that oil prices keep marching relentlessly higher another reminder of the 70s the white house wants the oil companies to get busy producing uh but they're making too much money by being disciplined and letting prices run it's not like the white out you know biden can't call pioneer and say hey listen mr sheffield i want you to put more oil into the gas tank i mean come on put it together you got an inflationary nightmare that just has to end badly right not so fast in my experience when everyone thinks that something's going wrong something's going bad you have to be careful not to buy into the group think right now i don't notice a soul who believes we can get out of this moment without much much much lower stock prices not low much lower so permit me to take the other side of the trade see there is a big big difference between now and the stagflation in the 70s i'm talking about the pandemic remember kovitt we wouldn't pretend it's over but we haven't really transitioned out of the covered economy in this country at all the united states is way behind europe when it comes to immunization and we've still got plenty of organized groups pushing the right to stay unvaccinated what a hill to die on but crucially many of our current problems are indeed coveted related because we aren't yet through the pandemic we still have tons of absentee workers there just aren't enough people to get the job done not because we don't have anyone hiring that's the stag part of stagflation but because people are scared to death of getting sick they don't want to get long covet instead of short flu it or worse die i think there's a huge disconnect between how wall street sees the pandemic and how the rest of the country sees it when 700 000 people die before their time when we're getting contrary messages from the nation's healthcare apparatus constantly millions of people just want to crawl under a rock and hide they don't want to work the government misjudged the delta variant first letting explode all over the country then it didn't complete 180 and went all in on scaring the heck out of us so that a lot of people said uh-uh i'm not driving that school bus i'm not going back to that counter in response older people with flush 401ks are leaving the workforce because why would you take the risk that if you if you don't have to work younger people feel less pressured to find jobs because there's moratorium on student loan repayments but businesses are desperate to hire people they've got a voracious demand for labor that's nothing like the stagflation of the 70s i'd argue that our current battle stagnation will be short-lasting once we get covet under control like they've done in europe it's not that hard they've done it we should be fine sooner or later that will happen but it has not happened yet so let's stop pretending how about the inflation side of the equation all right this one's tougher heinz is right we're all going to have to pay more for pretty much everything until the harvests are bigger we get the supply chain nightmare worked out and more chemical plants come back online than what i'll find because of hurricane ida i know people complain that there are no rollbacks in pricing but you know what that's not true in the past the biggest retailers the ones with scale like walmart and costco can come in underneath their competitors even especially the brand guys once the raw costs come down and believe me the raw costs will eventually come down and you'll be switching to their product it won't come back to where it was but it doesn't have to we can get used to paying more for some things what matters is that eventually all this noise about supply chains will indeed go away the trucking companies will realize they need to pay truckers more hey listen it's a trucking job that's that's a big job pay them more the long storm and will indeed have to work 24 7 even though they said that it can't work 24 7 it doesn't help anything that's wrong once we've got more truckers now let's go back to stock market because that's what matters for this show the last time we had real stagflation we didn't have automatic investments in stocks like we do now i just contributed contribute money to a stock mutual fund for my retirement account i did it today they told me i had to do it it's automated creates a room very different environment when it's automated sure the professionals analyze everything through the binary prism of buying and selling but the home gamers especially the younger ones they're not thinking well stagflation better after the hills instead they're like looking it up and googling it instead in this environment they're thinking it's easy to get a job interest rates are low i can buy a house i got the money okay cars are harder to find but only because they're not making a lot of them not because i can't afford one why is it harder again it's the chip shortage like with so many other products i think the chip shortage will only be conquered by this incredible thing we call capitalism someone will put up factories in conjunction with the automakers and solve the problem it's just going to take time possibly a long time more on that later in the end time is what this moment is all about we need time to beat covet time to plant more acreage time to get more chemical plants online time to build semiconductor foundries time for people to realize that they're running out of money and need to go back to work while we wait it'll be very easy for money managers to turn bearish but the people whose money they run they do not share that pessimism they know that investing in stocks has been sensational so while we wait for the world to go back to normal don't let the cyclists and easters that scare you away from the stock market oh they love to invoke the specter of the 70s to scare people away from stocks but i think that's bogus they could get the stock market lower but that's an opportunity we don't have we don't really have a stagnant economy and to the extent it's slowing i'm betting that will be pretty temporary as for inflation it's real but we just need to buckle up and stop trading off every little tick of oil or every dime of ketchup maybe you have to drive a little out of your way to get to a costco maybe you have to return to the workforce and mass transit once we beat covet it's not the end of the world people bottom line i say give it time and do not panic it might surprise you how quickly things get better right when most money managers think that all is lost
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