저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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첫째 줄: 노동지표 약세는 연준 긴축 회피 기대로 단기 호재지만, 실적 시즌 전까지는 무리한 베팅보다 관망이 낫다는 결론. [고용·시장 흐름] 9월 비농업고용이 예상치를 크게 밑돌았으나, 델타 변이 확산으로 재택이 늘어난 탓이라 놀라울 일은 아니라고 설명. 처음엔 긴축 회피 기대로 상승했지만 이익 약세로 해석되며 상승분을 반납함(다우 -0.19%, 나스닥 -0.51%). [에너지] 유가 상승으로 에너지주가 강세. 데본, 파이오니어, 다이아몬드백(성장), 쉐브론(매출) 목록이 유가 50센트 상승 때마다 강하게 오른다고 언급. [AMC·영화] 007 신작 흥행이 좋으면 AMC 주가 상승 기대. 다만 전통 지표상 고평가 가능성은 인정. [실적 일정] 화요일 패스터널(산업 성장 바로미터), 수요일 JP모건·블랙록(긍정적 실적 기대하나 매수 추격은 비추천), 수요일 델타항공(국제여행 재개 낙관은 과도하다는 취지로 백신 여권 부재를 지적), 목요일 모건스탠리·웰스파고(긍정적 전망), 뱅크오브아메리카·씨티(BofA는 장기금리 상승시 수혜, 씨티는 저평가 지속), 도미노피자(낙관), 월그린(추가 상승 여력 제한적), 금요일 골드만삭스(우수한 실적 예상, 급추격 금지), J.B. Hunt(운전기사 부족, 투자등급 하향 언급). [리스크·전망] 계절적으로 약한 시기이므로 큰 폭 폭락이 없다면 영웅적 베팅 불필요. 완만하게 식은 고용지표가 실적 시즌에 적합하다고 봄. 공급망 차질이 연말 시즌을 위협할 수 있어 항만 혼잡을 점검 중. [개별 종목 질의응답] 블랙스톤(BX): 28달러에 매수했으나 136에서 116으로 하락. 수익 상당분이 있으니 월요일 오전 일부 실현 권고. 업스타트(Upstart): 수익 상승 후 조정, 반등 옹호하며 AI 대출 방식 긍정 평가. 크라우드스트라이크·팔로알토: 팔로알토가 더 나은 모델일 수 있다는 취지의 답변. 엘리먼트 솔루션스: 특수화학 기업으로 흥미로운 기회 가능성 언급. [출연자] 진행자 Jim Cramer(CNBC) 본인 발언만 포함.
다듬은 글
ca. I'm not looking for friends, I'm just trying to help you make money. My job is not only to entertain you, but also to teach and enlighten you. So call me at 1-800-743-CNBC or tweet at Jim Cramer. Don't know what to do? How about doing nothing? Unfortunately, people cannot refrain from taking action.
So they trade, trade, trade based on the same information that they have already exhausted. That's how I took the reaction to today's disappointing nonfarm payrolls report , where the number of jobs created turned out to be significantly lower than forecast, although those making these forecasts clearly haven't heard anything about the delta option.
If they knew we were going through a serious COVID outbreak, with people preferring to stay safe at home rather than go to work, these weak employment figures should not have surprised anyone. At first, traders liked this weakness because it meant J. Powell got a pass, right? He will avoid tightening policies in the face of the delta option.
But then we lost our gains: the Dow fell only nine points, losing 0.19%, while the Nasdaq lost 0.51%. Why? Because upon deeper analysis, it seemed that weak employment figures were confused with weak profits. Meanwhile, oil prices soared again, directing money flow back into energy stocks. Look, this is the same list I keep giving you.
It's Devon, Pioneer, and Diamondback for growth, and Chevron for revenue. They all went up again today. Every time oil goes up 50 cents, this list explodes. Yet this week we recovered from the early sell-off and ended it confidently enough to enter the height of reporting season on a good note. So why don't we see what he has in store for us?
Let's take a look at the week. So, next Monday is a day of meme madness, as we get the box office numbers for No Time to Die, the new Bond film starring the incredibly cool Brooklynite Daniel Craig. Since I live in Brooklyn myself, I'm the only person who considers it "my own." Nobody else cares about it, but I do—yes, understand?
So, if the Bond movie is a success, the "runners and shooters," these meme- monkeys—that's their word, not mine—will relentlessly drive up the price of AMC. One thing is for sure: if Bond performs well, AMC CEO Adam Aron will be tweeting hysterically about those box office numbers. At one point, his tweet garnered 7 million views.
Adam is the type of person who is not shy about talking about how his shareholders will get richer if this trajectory continues, even though many financial managers like to endlessly criticize him and bet against him. Is AMC stock overvalued right now? By most traditional metrics, sure, but as I told Adam at my corporate governance conference last week, a stock is worth what people are willing to pay for it .
And the answer is—more expensive if Bond's box office is huge. Next up on Tuesday, we'll hear from a company that... Oh, it's only worth $30 billion, but hear me out: Fastenal is a proxy indicator . This is an indicator of industrial growth, because it supplies everything needed for construction. I always listen to conference calls.
You see, there is a lack of news on Tuesday, unless, of course, there are new developments from Washington. So it's to be expected that traders will go to great lengths to target Fastenal. You would see this "fast money". They say: I'm not just fast money, but fast, fast money . Yes. It's almost impossible to predict how the market will react to JP Morgan's results on Wednesday.
This is a well-run company that has a habit of putting out stunning numbers. But will they be so awesome as to justify the stock's rise? Usually not. However, there will be overly anxious traders who will drive up the price, right? Because they usually report between 6:00 and 7:00 in the morning, and then they are " landed" by other traders who don't like it.
They find some line that doesn't seem good to them. I say: if you haven't bought JP Morgan yet, you can afford to wait. Let's see what happens. Now, BlackRock is reporting too. And this huge asset collector is likely to have a monstrous quarter . I think so. I mean, the numbers will be considered significantly better than expected, even if I don't know what they are yet.
Hey, I don't know if anyone believes they won't be great. BlackRock is what I call a "holy " stock. So if you're looking to buy something for trading, this is it. The revenue this year is incredible. Regardless of what is written there. You could literally put in a blank number and people would choose it in the first round.
Next, airlines seem to be making statements every day. It seems they can't shut up. When Delta reports Wednesday morning, there will still be people surprised by their optimism about the prospects for the resumption of international travel. As someone who has flown a lot since the peak of the pandemic, I have seen planes get fuller and fuller.
However, when you go to Europe, you realize that the EU "green passport," which is required everywhere because it confirms vaccination, is something we desperately need here, but we don't have the political will. Delta Air would be much better off if we had a vaccine passport policy to combat the Delta strain.
But when I asked Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo about it, she said it wasn't being considered. America is simply not as determined to overcome this pandemic as Europe. We were so far ahead of them. Now we are so far behind. Well, of course, we take the motto " live free or die" too literally. What else?
Well, you've definitely heard about our new investment club here on CNBC. Can you bring your phone to this? Let me do this. You do it like this . Do you see it here? I mean, is this...Is this it? Um, so if you want...That's how I think, right? I mean, it's like, well, look, this is a rehearsal. When you see the later version, it will be much stronger.
You know what? If you want to see us in action, read our reports next week on Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo. These are the two positions of my charitable foundation when they are presented on Thursday morning. Club members will receive unbiased, actionable analysis that Wells Fargo simply won't give you.
I've been doing this for a long time. Let me tell you, we explain in plain language how good or bad these quarterly results are. Even if we made a mistake, we just say we were wrong . We expected this, but got something else. No one, no analyst would ever do that . And we provide it to you with the time needed to make an informed decision.
We are proud of this and work for you, not for large institutions. We are not trying to appease the people who run these companies. And this is " curry", well, you know, it's not because I have that accent. I'm betting that Morgan Stanley's results will be impressive, and Wells Fargo's won't be as bad as before.
This is good news for both companies. Banks have made great strides, but they still lag far behind the overall market in terms of price-to- earnings ratio. As a less extreme version of the oil industry, the financial sector was constrained and is now catching up. If their stock drops next week, we'll be buyers.
I can guarantee you that. Also on Thursday, we will get results from Bank of America and Citigroup. Well, you know that City remains consistently cheap. I don't see this changing anytime soon . However, Bank of America could have a real earnings breakthrough as long-term interest rates rise, which is exactly what they need.
Now we will hear reports from Domino's as well. This is important because the company has been successful since we recommended buying it at $10 about a decade ago. I think they will exceed expectations again. The Delta variant forced people to stay home again. Try the cheeseless tomato pie with banana peppers.
Okay, just try it. Press the "no cheese" button and press it a second time. There is a real boom in pizza delivery right now. They are also the ones doing the most to advance autonomous driving. How about Walgreens Boots Alliance? What a terrible action. You start to wonder if anything can even lift her up.
However, the stocks have been down for so long that they already seem attractive to me. Any positive news can push them up. Although I can't imagine what news that could be. Maybe the people who run them know. If not, I will continue to criticize them mercilessly. Goldman Sachs reports on Friday , I expect excellent figures.
Costs under control. Capital management at its best. Fixed-interest income is pretty good. People are actually going back to work. Corporate finance is very strong. Even mergers and acquisitions are restricted by a government suddenly taking over antitrust laws, but they still work well. The good thing about Goldman shares is that they really do track earnings.
So, if the quarter is as strong as I expect, don't chase them. This is a useless thing. For Investment Club members, we will compare all banks to make sure you choose the right one. And if we make mistakes, we admit our mistakes. Even though it's embarrassing, I don't care . Finally, J.B. Hunt, the nation's third-largest trucking company, also reports on Friday.
And we hope they explain what the hell is going on with the truck driver search. I mean, seriously. Finding drivers has become a nightmare. Hey, I have an idea. How about paying them more ? We have a driver shortage in America, which is often cured by higher wages. Well, maybe that's one of the reasons why J.B.
Hunt was downgraded from “hold” to “sell” by a major financial firm. Here is the main conclusion. We are still in the final stages of a historically weak moment. We'll talk about this much more later in the program. So, there's no need to be a hero next week unless we get a very sharp sell-off due to an exogenous shock that has little to do with the US economy.
But now, an employment report that's not too hot, and maybe a little cold, is exactly what's needed before earnings reports. Although I expect a completely individual approach to trading throughout the next week. Beloved. Joanna from Florida. Joanna. Come on, baby. Buia. I've been your longtime listener since the dot-com days.
Anyway, I'm calling about Blackstone, BX. It was a real darling of Wall Street for a very long time. In fact, if you look at the annual chart, it hardly fell. In September it went up to 136. And now it's down to 116. I bought it at 28 in 2018, and I have a lot of these shares. Now I want to know what's happening to him.
Well, I mean, these are the stocks that have started to lose ground. Many believe that a large number of new deals are not expected. Many others believe we are moving into another phase of the cycle. Here is my opinion. You have too many of them. You have a significant profit. I need you to play for casino money , locking in some of the profits, and please do it on Monday morning .
Since it sounds like you're a very nice person who likes me, I'll let you do it. Let's move on to Stephen from New York. Stephen. Jim, thank you for taking my call. Oh, we're ready to go . What is happening? I'm calling on behalf of myself and your second biggest fan, my sister Lisa from St. Augustine, Florida.
Wow, I jumped over my two daughters, but that's okay. I mean, they have mixed feelings. Continue. Tell me about the show, about the show. I love the new investment club, man. This is a real breakthrough. Thank you. You know, the club is fun. I mean, you know, we make love in the club. Actually, no. By the way, I have his book.
There it is, right here. Is n't this the guy who did this? I mean, he's just... Okay, what's going on? Your recommendation for Affirm was magical. Thank you. My question regarding the recent partnership between CrowdStrike and UiPath: what are the overall benefits for CrowdStrike from this partnership going forward?
I'm worried about CrowdStrike. I love George. I really love it. Palo Alto Networks may have a better model now, because I know CrowdStrike is cloud-based, but I believe if you buy Palo Alto now, you're covered for everything except UiPath. I am a fan of Aksh Aurora, and she hasn't grown at all . Why?
No complaints about P A N W. Now let's move on to Susan from California, please. Susan. Hello, welcome to my favorite stock guru. I love you, man. And, you know , I'm calling from the land of the Giants and the Dodgers. Hey, I want to say something first about your Investors Club. When you first switched to the new system, I thought, "Oh no, another paid service." And the other day I noticed that there was no payment, from the moment you announced on the air why you did it.
And in fact, my heart was very happy. Oh my God. Your investors, new and old. So thank you , Jim, for that. I appreciate it. Listen, the time has come. That is, I reached the age where it was simply time. You know, it's like...well, no commission. I don't need your money. I just want to give you the analysis that I see, and I'm not flattering anyone because I'm not playing for lunch.
To work. Okay, about 5 weeks ago you were talking about Upstart. I bought some and it took off. Now she has fallen a little. I'm curious, I know it's... It's stocks. This is a bit unusual. What is your prediction for the future? Is this a promotion you like? Think about it this way. And thank you for these kind words.
Thank you all for the kind words about the club. I need you to think about it this way. I think this promotion reminds me of Shopify when it was 200 and went up to 400, and I said, “Ah, you know what? "This is a big victory." No. There were significantly more Upstarts on each downturn. These drilling masters are simply amazing.
This is the path to loans using artificial intelligence. This is the right way. What do you think of these wonderful people who love the club? Well, look, it was worth it. It's worth it. I'm just getting started. You have no idea what I'm preparing for the future. Okay, anyway. We are still in a seasonally weak period for the market right now.
There's no need to be a hero unless there's a precipitous collapse. I really think that a not- too-hot, maybe even a bit- cool jobs outlook might be just right for earnings. Oh my god, today's supply chain issues could threaten the holiday season. So how do we make sure all our presents show up under the tree?
Or, you know, I'm talking to a private company called Flexport to learn more about the congestion at our ports and what it takes to fix it. The last 21 years, late September and early October, have been a difficult time for the market. But now that we are recovering from a difficult period, what next?
I'll look at the graphs to figure that out. And a few weeks ago you stopped me on this Element Solutions. So I'm doing my homework on the stock to see if this specialty chemicals company could create an interesting opportunity, and it's likely that it could. So why don't you stay with the Investment Club and with C.
Missed something? Go to madmoney.cnbc.com. This is Shepard Smith. Thank you for watching CNBC on YouTube.
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