Tariffs are the only negative of Trump's economic agenda, says Wharton's Jeremy Siegel

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트럼프 관세는 경제 어젠다 중 유일한 부정 요소이며, 협상 카드로 번복 가능성이 있다. 관세의 물가 영향은 제한적(일회성 약 0.5~0.75%p 추정). 딥시크 충격은 저렴한 AI가 미국 경제·시장에 전반적으로 긍정이나 고가 칩 업체엔 부정. S&P500 선행PER ~22배, 매그7 제외 493개 종목은 약 19배로 과도하지 않다고 봄. AI 내러티브 추세는 단일 충격으로 꺾이기 어렵고 2~3차례 충격이 필요하다는 견해.

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01. Jeremy seagull Professor it's always good to have you especially when we see a market doing what it is on these headlines your reaction is what well I think uh you know tariffs are the only negative of of Trump's economic agenda most of which is is very good um I also by the way wouldn't completely give up hope on a settlement uh I know a number of people including myself that have been in a Jury Room selected for a jury and we're ready to go lawyer come in the last minute and said hey we have a settlement and we all leave uh I can't guarantee that but uh you know uh you know the art of the deal for Trump let's push him to the edge and see what happens um but clearly if there if it is 2525 or and then 10 on China um it that is a negative impact on the economy and I think on stock prices but then why do you have people like Jamie d who I think it was in davo said get over it essentially as it relates to tariffs lutnick as I said the proposed Commerce Secretary saying the notion that these are just across the board inflationary is is nonsense well you know there it's it's not nonsense there is some positive effect is it a disastrous effect on prices probably not I mean I I've seen some uh uh research that suggest of all those tariffs come in and don't forget trade is only you know 10% of GDP and if all those tariffs come in it might raise the price level by a half or 3/4 of a percent and that's a one-time increase so you know I wouldn't call that disastrous but that certainly reorganizes Supply chains uh all sorts of uh sourcing uh situations and it it really depends on how long it lasts I mean you know if he puts it on Saturday I think a lot of people are going to defer for a few days and then he could reverse it on Monday or Tuesday if uh another concession is wrangled uh from uh Mexico uh and these other countries so it's a it's a bargaining tool are you going to get enough in exchange for uh the negative effect of the Tariff in and of itself and uh I I don't think this play is over yet been a wild week to say the least given the Deep seek Story the headlines the selloff in Tech what happened earlier in this week and and where we are now so how does that color your opinion of the stock market here well I think that you know uh cheaper is better for the economy cheaper is better for any AI user uh what cheaper isn't better for are are perhaps the high-end chip producers of course we all think of Nvidia um uh as that and you know I I I'm not an expert in Tech I I've been hearing all sorts of stories you know can Advanced AI be done on a deep seeks uh program um does it does it mean Advanced AI can be done without the Blackwell chips I mean all these questions need to be answered you know uh autonomous driving robots all that can that be done with deepsea type of uh of transformation so I think there's still a lot of questions out there the basic thing is certainly anything cheaper a AI wise is good for the US economy and good overall for the US market yeah you you may not be an expert as you say um in in Ai and Tech although you sound well versed I will just give you that and you are an expert Professor seagull on stock market valuations to which the FED share himself this week went asked directly about economic conditions Financial conditions called valuation stretch by almost any measure now he was zeroing in of course on Tech and on AI and those stocks that have done quite well but what was your view on that comment well so you know we talk about 22 as a forward-looking PE on SNP I mean X mag 7 which is the you know 493 other stocks it's around 19 which I don't think is an unreasonable uh PE uh G given the entire economy so the question is can the mag 7 which has done unbelievably brilliantly over the last 2 3 5 10 years maintain its prominence and of course what happened Monday says well maybe maybe margins can't stay as high for some of them but then again some of these others are going to be users of it and actually have have gone up after the Deep seek so not all mag s is is going to be negatively affected so yes uh ma s is uh singular event we've never had it in in the 200 year history of the US Stock Market X the mag 7 I do not think the stock market is overvalue but does this threaten that trade which many people have obviously gone heavily into over the last 18 to 24 months yeah well you know when you when you the the trend and the AI narrative is extremely strong my research shows that it's very hard to to topple a trend it usually takes more than one blow uh you know it's like a prize fighter up there takes a blow with the head and all right and continues on it it it would take something else and then it's like a Tipping Point I'm not saying that Tipping Point is going to happen but if all of a sudden people say hey I can reproduce the black wh uh performance with cheaper chips whoa then you're on the next side of of that story and if margins go down on some of these other mag seven stocks that becomes the other side so so this is usually need two or three blows to break a trend that is as strong as the AI narrative is and you could say Monday is blow number one doesn't mean that two or three are coming soon but it means you got to be on alert