저자: JoelGreenblatt · 외국인
요약 보기
Greenblatt는 집중 포트폴리오 운용 시 2~3년마다 20~30% 손실이 주기적으로 발생하며, 인내와 투자 논리 유지가 중요하다고 설명. 헤지펀드식 롱숏(수백 종목) 운용은 변동성이 작다고 주장. 복리의 힘을 예로 들어 19세부터 7년간 연 2,000달러 투자가 26세부터 40년간 투자보다 65세 시점에 더 많은 자산을 남긴다고 강조(연 10% 수익 가정). 특정 종목·자산에 대한 가격 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
Uh, you know, Warren Buffett said, "The, um, uh, a fat wallet's the enemy of, uh, high investment returns." Uh, and so, when you have a very concentrated portfolio, and you're looking off the beaten path where there are kind of smaller situations and things that are more obscure, you're very liquidity constrained.
That's why we kept, uh, returning money. Uh, but that's not why we're doing what we're doing now. Uh, if you're going to run other people's money, uh, this is what I'll tell you with a portfolio that has six or eight names that are 80% of your portfolio. Every two to three years, usually within two, uh, Rob and I, uh, my partner Rob Goldschmidt and I would wake up and, uh, we'd find out we just lost 20 or 30% of our net worth.
Uh, and that happened like clockwork every two, three years. Just always happened. It has to happen with a concentrated portfolio, either because we were wrong Mhm. on one or two of our picks, or, uh, you know, market, they were out of favor for some period of time, and maybe it bothered us, maybe it didn't.
If we just had to be patient. Uh, but I would say for outside, uh, you know, when I was talking about people going in and out of funds and and losing the return, that is not conducive for other people, especially if they're not doing the work. Mhm. It was okay for us, uh, and I think it was it was it was good for us cuz we knew what we owned.
And so, as long as the facts hadn't changed and as long as we, uh, believed in our thesis, we we could take that. I wouldn't say it was easy, but we could take that. Now, our bad days, we have hundreds of stocks on the long side and hundreds of stocks on the short side. We're trying to be right on average.
We're buying cheap, good companies. We're shorting, uh, companies that are either destroying capital or losing money or whatever it is. And over time, that pays off. And but our bad days with hundreds of stocks on a side are 20 or 30 basis points of underperformance, not 20, 30% of our net worth. Uh, and so, I think for most people, it's a smoother ride.
And, um, one of the great lessons that, uh, young investors, and a lot of you guys are still very young, uh, can learn are the compound interest tables. You know, if you can make mid-teen returns, we wouldn't make 40 or 50% annualized returns, but in mid-teens returns, uh, if you know compound interest tables, you could do very well over, uh, you know, with a smoother ride over a long period of time.
Uh, one of the, uh, the best examples are when I when I taught those ninth graders, I actually put on the outside of their notebooks, I handed them notebooks and I on the outside I had a compound interest table and it had the example of, uh, starting investing, uh, $2,000 a year when you're 19, uh, you know, in your IRA until you're 26, uh, so 7 years of putting away 2,000 and never putting another nickel in again, or starting when you're 26 and putting in 2,000 a year, uh, for 40 years until you're 65.
So, uh, the people who put in 2,000 a year from age 19 to 26 and never put in another nickel ended up with more money, if you earn 10% a year on that money, uh, they ended up with more money with those seven payments than the people who started 26 and put in 40 payments till they were 65. You end up with more money.
Uh, the the 19 to 26, just a very important lesson to learn about starting early. I know all of you are over 19, so I'm sorry I didn't tell you this. But, but these kids these kids weren't and so, uh, compound interest, uh, tables are important. So, uh, you're young, uh, if you if you stay with a very methodical investment strategy that makes sense over time, uh, you can all still do very, very well.
Joel Greenblatt shared a fascinating example about the true power of compounding. Imagine a 19-year-old investing $2,000 every year for just 7 years. By age 26, he completely stops investing and never adds another dollar. Now, compare that with someone who starts investing at age 26 and continues putting $2,000 every year for the next 40 years until age 65.
And surprisingly, when both portfolios are measured at age 65, the person who stopped investing at 26 ends up with almost same money. That's how powerful compounding can be when time is on your side. Wealth creation is not only about how much you invest, but how early you start. You must know compounding needs just three things: initial capital, time, and a good rate of return.
The earlier you begin, the more your money works for you behind the scenes. You don't need perfect returns or huge amount of money to build wealth. Start early, start consistent, give your investments time, and compounding can do heavy lifting for decades.
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