저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
Faber는 미국 자산가격이 극도로 고평가되었고 통화팽창(QE)이 구조적 문제라고 주장한다. 주택구매력이 역사상 최저 수준이고 실질임금은 마이너스라 본다. 연방준비은행은 자산버블과 물가 사이에서 진퇴양난이며, 재정적자 해결책(증세·지출삭감·디폴트) 모두 어려워 결국 인플레이션 방향으로 간다고 한다. 금은 1971년 35달러 이후 상승해 현재 온스당 약 2,650달러로 가장 선호되는 대안이다. 달러 약세를 전망하나 자신은 자산 대부분을 달러로 보유한다고 밝힌다.
다듬은 글
encouraged asset price inflation but they can't control where it goes and they can't control the Consumer Price inflation so they are now in a very difficult position in my view they can solve the problem but it's very painful for for at least five years the other less painful solution is to keep on printing but you know it's been strong against other currencies but not against an hon currency like gold silver and platinum okay Platinum is a special case but gold has appreciated against uh the dollar essentially since uh 1971 in 71 we were at$ 35 an ounce and now you need 2,650 or so dollars to buy an ounce we have this downtrend in the purchasing power of money and people should not kid themselves the purchasing power of money has gone down much more than the frand Bureau of Labor statistic compiles the cost of living of ordinary people have gone up much more than what they show that inflation is same in in Europe by the way same in Switzerland in Switzerland they claim we have no inflation BS we have inflation everything is so everybody who goes to Switzerland says it's very expensive yes it is very expensive I'm ultra bearish about the dollar you understand but I'm an investor at the same time so most of my cash is actually in dollars and I want to explain to you and your viewers a funny fact please some of my portfolios I value in dollars some of my portfolios I value in euros and some in Swiss Franks now you would think when the dollar goes down that it is uh good for my portfolios because it's value in in Euros no my portfolios appreciate when the dollar strengthens because of Holdings in dollars I value different portfolios differently so I'm I can always sleep Happily One portfolio is likely to appreciate somewhat if one's up yeah if one's down the other's up and vice versa but in general when I look at uh the price level in the us and the price level elsewhere the US is grossly overvalued grossly yeah but you are right you know the dollar if someone said to me Mark you have a choice you can keep all your money in taiat I live in Thailand in the North in the Golden Triangle you must keep all your money either in thaad or US Dollars where Easy Choice both are undesirable oh both choices are so bad I I would say if if the choice was you have to keep it all in dollars gold or in tbot I would choose gold of course yeah for sure I just had an American here he has been a few years to jail but he's a very nice person everybody who's in jail is innocent anyway it's a question you know whether you keep your assets well you have to keep them somewhere so I think you know having tell you the best is to diversify I think at the present time as I hinted earlier on the the US level of asset prices is extremely high and I want to emphasize the high level can be measured at say the housing market yeah the housing market in America is very interesting economically speaking because prices are up in the sky now you would think that in a bullmark Market where prices are high the volume of transactions is very high no it's low why because the affordability is at the lowest level ever that tells me that the price level in America is high and in other countries relatively low and I can see it myself because I travel somewhat the the central banks have created a huge problem for themselves looking at the asset markets they should tighten but because monetary inflation impoverishes the majority of people so because the majority of people is impoverished based on economic fundamentals they should probably cut interest rates but not based on the asset value the asset bubbles are there real estate stocks everything someone in outside Observer would say looking at the financial markets will say you're crazy if you cut rates here on the other hand if you look at 80% of Americans whose standards of living have been going down they should cut rates I know it's that's the Dilemma the cut rates financial markets go even higher and the property Market goes even higher and it diminishes the purchasing power of people Ben Ben banki embarked on qe1 in December 2008 they asked me on TV uh you know what my view was I said once you embark on monetary inflation it's practically impossible to stop it it can be stopped but the pain is such that every democratically elected government will prefer to postpone the major pain by printing more yeah and in my view we may have you know like in the 70s waves of inflation and then prices came down again and so but in general the governments in the western societies they're so deep into fiscal deficits now the fiscal deficits you could solve you can go to the people and say look we have to increase taxation I'd like to see the politician who gets elected when he tells people you have to increase taxation second solution is to say we have to cut spending but as you know in America America most of the spending cannot be cut is mandatory yeah Medicare defense what can be cut is very small that's why I don't believe that uh this this efficiency department will be very successful and the third solution is the default they can default but it's very messy because there's so many foreigners you know and their Pension funds and the Pension funds in Canada among friends and so that own treasuries MH so you would have to default and say oh all of you get paid and all of you don't get paid but that would be the end of the dollar as a reserve currency and then there is the easiest uh solution and this is acceptable to most people because most people like the government to implement policies that are inflationary because they don't know that they are inflationary but once the inflation happens they don't like the inflation so the Dilemma is what leads to inflation is well liked in a democracy but inflation per se is not liked and specifically Consumer Price inflation people like inflation properties because property prices go up they like uh inflation in stocks because the financial sector gets richer and richer including Mark Farber so it's all good we are in a stage where it will accelerate and it won't last another 100 years you know there not going to be that way because once you embark on monetary inflation once the recession occurs or is perceived as a recession you said the econom is expanding yes the econom is expanding because the government collects a tax and prints money it sends this money to households to let them afford to go to Walmart and spend money at Walmart and the shareholders of of Walmart are not the poor people but the capitalist the rich people you know uh the whole thing is artificial in my opinion and it won't last very long my view is we are at turning points because at this stage if you print money you can probably maintain consumption at a certain level but the price level will go up if you increase the quantity of money and we are in a stage where if you print money it is likely that the price level goes up at a faster Pace than uh nominal wages in other words real wages real economic growth is negative when When someone tells me look GDP is up 2% per anom I say it's up 2% perom if you use the methodology of the Bureau of Labor Statistics but the private Economist says someone like John Williams according to him at present time the cost of living is increasing at more than 10% perom that's fair I would say not my cost of living but for sure it's more than 5% perom and our lady she sent me about a letter from her health care provider and I have the letter I printed in my report her cost of this insurance is going up by more than 90% over three years 90 90 and the government has the audacity to tell people that health care costs are down over the last three years this is a lie a blatant lie but the Wall Street Economist do not point this out because they Wall Street loves money printing the asset value goes up and the profits go up it's the industry that that supplies the FED chairman Wall Street supplies these guys Wall Street benefits from money printing that's maneuvered itself they were not forced to do it this is by Design they overlooked the fact that when asset prices go up as much as they did in the 1980s 90s and now in the last 20 years MH that this is some sort of monetary inflation the origin of it and then they always encouraged asset price inflation but they can't control where it goes and they can't control the Consumer Price inflation so they are now in a very difficult position in my view they can solve the problem but it's very painful for for at least five years the other painful solution is to keep on printing how would you solve the problem Mark if you were running the fed well Milton fredman he was very skeptical about uh Central bankers and he thought the computer could do that job artificial intelligence could do the job much better than they do that that is for sure
Comments 0