저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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미국 경제는 이미 사실상 침체 상태이며 가계는 생활비 부담에 시달린다. 연준의 인플레이션성 통화정책이 자산 인플레이션에 의존하는 구조를 만들었고, 1971년 금본위 이탈 이후 부채가 폭발적으로 증가했다. 주택 거래량 감소로 주택 시장은 접근성 위기에 처했고, 연준이 없는 편이 낫다는 비판적 견해를 보인다. 영상 중 특정 자산의 향후 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
the US for most people is already in recession that I tell you most families struggle our de level as a percent of the economy has gone into explosive grow mode the problem becomes affordability for the majority of people the majority of people have salaries that go up but they do not go up at the same rate as the cost of living increases we have a housing crisis in the US housing market because affordability issues most people can't afford to buy a house anymore and that's why I am so critical about the Federal Reserves monetary policy because what they've created is an affordability crisis they can print the money but it hurts Ordinary People more than it helps them the whole economy the whole system is geared to its prices going up and driven by asset inflation if they don't go up anymore you have a recession and that the FED is essentially a pray off so they will pursue policies that are inflationary rather than policies that are sound so you have a group of 1% that benefit and 80% do not benefit they live paycheck to paycheck the FED causes more problems than if you have no fed the best would be to essentially she dissolved the fed well actually it occurred relatively soon after I joined white world uh I joined in 1970 and by the summer of 71 there was pressure on the dollar because several central banks in Europe wanted to have uh hard assets instead of dollar Holdings notably the French resident sh the go and then on August I think it was 18th or 21st 1971 Nixon devalued the dollar and went off the gold standard in other words with the stroke of a pen he declared that the US would no longer back the gold at $35 an ounce in a from then on the price of gold would FL fluctuate and there after the dollar was weak throughout the 70s and it fell in value like against the German Mark by approximately 70% so the fact that the government official the president of the US can essentially negate a promise that was made earlier on uh kind of gave me the impression that you can't trust government officials I'm not saying this was the only reason why inflation accelerated in the 70s but it was for sure a contributing factor and it also LED to the gold bull market of the 70s where gold rose from $35 an ounce in 1970 to over $850 an ounce in the year two 1980 from 1970 to 1980 in 10 years gold GS from $35 an ounce to $850 an oun I think the character of the US has changed a lot I mean if you look at the 19th century the US started the 19th century with a population of approximately 5 million and it ended the 19th century with a population of 80 million so there was a lot of migration into the US and these people they went to the US because living conditions in the US were more favorable than in Europe I mean there are many reasons why they went to America in the 19 century but one of them was that and this I have to say the Socialist Economist they misrepresent these factors because they always say the 1870s in America and until 19910 with the Robert Baron days you know and they push down the capitalist like the Rockefellers and so course uh because they say they abused people yes throughout history people in power have abused people with less power and if I may summarize the history of mankind is the powerful people have always used labor you understand labor is badly paid throughout the ages but in America the conditions were work were much better than anywhere else in the world and that's why they went to America not because America had Social Security Social Security was introduced in 1934 in the 18th century you arrived in America and you had to work or die no no body would help you unless you had family and was that were already established but in general people came to the US because labor conditions were better they were not good but they were better than in Europe that I assure you and it was a a country where people could move ahead in relative Freedom that wasn't given in Europe but anyway the meaning of going off the gold standard is the gold standard I mean no the Breton Woods agreement which was in place until 1971 was some kind of a gold stand is not it wasn't a perfect gold standard but it was some kind of a gold standard and as such it was more difficult to print money than after going off the gold St standard and the 1970s was the first uh period in uh American economic history post second world war where we had high inflation in fact we had the highest inflation ever in the US save the Civil War period because during the Civil War there were shortages of commodity Commodities but other than that period the 1970s was a period of accelerating inflation and uh that was enabled essentially by going going off the gold standard in 71 it wasn't the only reason but one of the important reasons I want to clarify one point I studied under Professor who was world famous because he argu argued for flexible exchange rates I am all in favor of flexible exchange rates in other words I'm as an example in Hong Kong we have the Hong Kong dollar Peg the Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar in my view this Peg is wrong I would prefer to have uh the ability uh to implement independent monetary policies in Hong Kong and not P your currency to the US dollar because once you P your currency to another currency you inherit the monetary policy of the other country and Hong Kong and the US are totally different economies so their needs may be different I'm in in favor of flexible exchange rates but uh I think that with 1971 some monetary disciplined went overboard you know they they abandoned it and thereafter if you look at say the debt in the United States 1900 to today the debt grew at about the rate of GDP for hundreds of years in Siri but after 71 debt began especially after 1980 government debt began to grow at a much faster Pace than say GDP so our debt level as a percent of the economy has gone into explosive growth mode and now we're burdened with very high debts now some people say and tell me well you've been arguing against that for a long time and the fun the system still functions yes that is true uh the de level has expanded a lot and it still function functions but that is also the case in turkey and was the case in Zimbabwe and was the case in Argentina but the problem and you know it as a real estate broker the problem becomes affordability for the majority of people the majority of people have salaries that go up but they do not go up at the same rate as the cost of living increases and so as you pointed out we have a housing crisis in in the US housing market because affordability issues most people can't afford to buy a house anymore the rich yes the 1% the 0 .1% they can afford to buy a house but young people they all struggle to buy a house and that's why although home prices are at the record in other words normally in a bull market the volume goes up which the price increases but in this housing boom we have now transaction values you know those existing home sales and new home sales all down and that's why I am so critical about go that the Federal Reserves monetary policy because what they've created this an an affordability crisis they can print the money but it hurts Ordinary People more than it helps them
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