저자: DanIves · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 테슬라 3분기 실적은 매출 역대 최고지만 애널리스트 기대치를 하회해 단기 어려움이 예상되나, 장기 성장 스토리와 자사주 매입을 근거로 저점 매수 관점을 유지. 실적 평가: 테슬라 3분기 순이익 33억 달러, 분기 매출 역대 최고이나 시장 기대치 미달. 마진과 인도량 부진, 4분기 전망 하향(보수적). 공급망·물류 문제가 주원인이나 테슬라는 더 높은 기준이 적용됨. 단기 전망: 수요는 여전히 견조하나 물류·인도 이슈와 일부 수요 문제 존재. 향후 3~6개월은 어려운 시기로 진단. 머스크 발언: 테슬라 시총이 애플과 사우디아람코 합산을 넘을 수 있다는 발언은 비현실적이며 소음에 불과하다고 비판. 트위터 인수(440억 달러)는 과다지불로 평가. 목표가·자사주: 단기~중기 목표가 300달러 제시. 2023년 약 70억 달러 규모 자사주 매입 가능성 언급(현금 200억 달러 보유). 현재 조정은 일시적 파동으로 봄. 자율주행(FSD): 테슬라 스토리의 핵심이나 최근 사고로 평판 타격. 규제 승인 획득이 관건이며 결국 승인 가능성이 높다고 전망. 2023년 규제 승인은 중요한 분기점. 넷플릭스: 실적 개선으로 2일간 15% 이상 급등, 긍정적 출발로 평가. 다만 스트리밍 경쟁 심화와 구독 이탈 우려 존재. 콘텐츠 경쟁력 유지와 광고 요금제, 저가 패키지가 대응책. 아마존·애플·훌루와의 경쟁 본격화 예상. 기술주 전반: 연준 금리 인상(종착 금리 5.2% 전후)·경기침체 우려로 올해 기술주는 위험회피 장세. 실적 시즌이 연내 기술주 방향을 결정할 중요 시점. 마이크로소프트·애플·구글·사이버보안 등 고품질 종목 선호. 장기 전망: 주식 펀더멘털은 악재 속에서도 버티고 있으며, 클라우드·전기차·5G·스마트폰 기술 등 파괴적 테마는 유지. 반도체 섹터는 과매도 상태로 판단. 최악은 지나갔고 바닥 형성 과정이라는 입장으로, 투매보다 보유를 권고.
다듬은 글
welcome everybody to this Tech special just reported 3.3 billion dollars in third quarter profit in its highest ever quarterly Revenue but miss analyst sales estimates we're gonna dig into the details the numbers along with Donna's managing director of equity of research of wet Bush Securities good morning Dan and thank you so much for joining us yeah great to speak with you so then I'd like to let you the numbers what's your first take from one side we have record numbers in terms of revenues on the other side missing expectations what's the real issue in your opinion and the real reason that the stock is of about five percent yeah I mean look glitches take off the Rose Colored Glasses I mean this was not a phenomenal quarter for Tesla and it's something that goes against the norm in terms of what we've been used to for the last two and a half three years so I do think it's supply chain Logistics driven but Tesla's held to a higher standard as well as musk and that's why you're seeing the reaction in terms of negative because the margins deliveries and it will call a little tempered forecast for Q4 during the con reference goal in terms of demand and deliveries for the fourth quarter look I think demand continues to be pretty robust despite the Mac or what we're seeing the other automakers but but they're running into some issues Logistics delivery and I think around the edge of some demand issues and that's really going to be the debate here is that you know musk will continue to talk the game and ultimately it's really executed in historic fashion but I'd say right now it's a it's a rough pack for the next three to six months to navigate Tesla through that's where measures are focused on and you know I think this was definitely not rainbows and Roses in terms of an overall quarter there are a few details I'd like to dig into first of all uh musk said something very important he sees the potential path for Tesla to be worth more than Apple and Saudi aramco combined so do you think that actually this statement which is not even a goal according to musk uh is actually feasible I mean I want to play in the Premier League so the point is that anyone could say anything but yeah I mean I think that's more look I think it's misguided and to be honest I just don't understand why to say something like that it's just noise creates headlines for coming it just missed deliveries and lower their forecast for Q4 and you know I think it's part of the frustration we're seeing remember this is you know musk is buying Twitter at 44 billion for an asset that's probably worth 20 billion overpaying by probably about 25 billion so I don't think I think must should stick to his genius in terms of what he does uh with Tesla SpaceX I and I think that's probably a misguided statement well let me ask you what's her take in actually um short to midterm Target price for the stock considering also the fact that probably uh in 2023 there is going to be a huge buying back program yeah yeah I mean like this remains one of our favorite names from disruptive Tech 300 hour price Target you know I think this is a name that wouldn't be able to navigate this rough patch still in the early Innings of a massive growth opportunity that buyback you're talking about do you believe probably about a seven billion dollar buyback they have 20 billion of cash I think that's long overdue so I I think we're gonna look back at this period as just a blip on the radar but musk as a pilot on the plane needs to navigate Tesla through it especially with the knee the arms race that's happening globally across Europe China as well as the US and obviously a dark macro look Dan um I was wondering in your opinion um the self-driving software of Tesla do you think this might be a very important Revenue contributor in the future and what's your take on the fact that in 2022 it's not ready yet for approval yeah it's a great question and and I'd say when you look at the future fxt full self-driving it's a it's one of the keys to the Tesla story I think it's been overall a black eye moment for Tesla month we've seen a lot of the tragic situations on the FSD front especially in the U.S they're gonna need to rectify this and then there's like this really needs to from the software technology perspective to to navigate the speed bumps here to get ultimate approval and really to start to get to level four you know as we go into the next two to three years because that's one of the key advantages for passovers are there automakers autonomous FSD but right now step by step it's getting through this path okay so do you think a a regulatory approval in 2023 when it comes to the self-driving software of Tesla could be a game changer for the company I think it's one of the keys that they need to get through because ultimately that continues to be a battle verse the regulatory authorities for good reason in terms of what they've done there and I think most contestant news there's definitely wood to chop there and they need to get through this and and I do believe they do they will ultimately get approval and that's that's one of those key sort of targets along with deliveries production China that they need to get to um Dan let me just ask you uh what do you think about Netflix numbers we are right in the means of tech earnings so this is extremely important uh moment for markets we we might see a lot of volatility we saw Netflix surging more than 15 in the past two days so I was wondering do you think this is some kind of um beginning of a positive narrative for Netflix I think it finally started to get to a point that they've gotten their arms run some of their growth issues and I need this quarter step in the right direction you got the ad service coming out as well I mean look they they had a growth over hanging post coven and now navigating through that and I think for for Netflix and for overall attack it was a positive start to to earnings season but look with that said I mean streaming extremely competitive you're starting to see more saturation in the market and especially consumers feel more of a pinch in their pocketbooks and wallets you know that that monthly subscription you could see more and more churn so that's right there's an important moment for Netflix and this was you know clearly a positive sign in terms of what you want to see on the Netflix story and what do you think are going to be the major challenges for the company and the rest of the streaming services in 2023 and in the future in general I think it's a Content key and obviously Netflix is in a phenomenal position there for my content but investors recognize the average home has three to four streaming services and they're going to start to make some tough decisions so you know Netflix that's why you need other lower price points other sort of packages churn's going to be an issue but then it ultimately contents came need to keep coming out with great content to feed the machine International growth is obviously going to be the focus in terms of subscribers but this is a Game of Thrones battle I mean you look at Amazon you look at this and you look at Hulu apps you look at Apple and others it's gonna start to you know clearly take hold over the coming year and final take on Tech sector in general we're living um in a probably challenging time for tech stocks from one side of course we have the fat for several Banks now the terminal rate is moving from four point something to 5.2 percent uh and on the other side possible recession in 2023 so what does this mean for the tech sector in terms of performance market performance well I mean it's been a risk off it's been a disaster this year you know we're just given the FED uh the war path on rates what we're seeing with inflation geopolitical but I mean it's someone that's carb attacked through multiple uh Cycles going back to 8.99 I view it as a period of time where you know Street's gonna look past this period you got to focus on some of the high quality star where it's like a Microsoft and cloud like an apple like a Google cyber security so I think there's Pockets you want to own you know to get through this but no look it's going to be a roller coaster ride because right now the backdrop is anti-tack that's why this is I believe one of the most important earnings season the last few years for attack Netflix kicked it off positive but this is really going to Define I think where Tech goes for the rest of the year final takes so so do you think we're gonna see our environment for Tech sector in the long term yeah I think this is we are starting to see why at the end of the tunnel given evaluations I think fundamentals stocks are beacon in a lot of bad news but I don't think that light's an oncoming train I think we're starting to get to a point that Tech will start to see green screens as we go into later this year into next year because these are disruptive themes that are not going away Cloud EV 5G some of the smartphone technology I think chip sector is way oversold as well and this is bearish as I've seen probably going back 2008 in terms of my investor conversations so we can say that the worst is already pricing look I mean I I believe that that we bottom I believe the worst in the rear view mirror we're in a bottoming process and we look back at this period as a time to own these names rather than throwing the towel and go into the basements fearing worse things are coming thank you very much thank you managing director equity research with Securities thanks for joining us have a great day you too thank you
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