저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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Ray Dalio는 시장 경험에서 얻은 교훈으로 '고통+성찰=진보'라는 원칙을 강조한다. 한 줄 결론: 과거의 반복되는 패턴(부채 위기 등)을 깊이 연구해 원칙으로 정리하면 미래 위기에 대비할 수 있다는 주장. 개인적 경험: 1971년 뉴욕증시 객장 근무 중 달러 금태환 중단을 겪었고, 이후 고통스러운 결정마다 원칙을 적고 연구하는 습관을 들였다. 원칙 형성 방식: 같은 원인으로 같은 일이 반복된다는 믿음 아래, 실패와 교훈을 기록해 원칙을 축적했다고 설명한다. 부채 위기 연구: 약 50년 동안 미국 4차례 주요 부채 위기와 신흥국 위기를 겪었고, 대공황·바이마르 공화국 사례까지 연구했다. 2008년 금융위기 예측: 연구 결과를 바탕으로 2007년에 2008년 위기를 예상했고, 이후 Geithner, Paulson, Bernanke 등 정책 당국자와 교류했다. 연구 방법론: 포퓰리즘처럼 낯선 현상은 과거 사례를 모두 찾아 원형(archetype)을 정립하고, 차이점을 분석해 참조 틀을 만든다. 책 구성: 짧은 입문부, 대공황·바이마르·2008 위기 심층 분석, 지난 100년간 48개 사례 개관으로 이뤄져 있다고 소개한다. 종목·자산 전망: 영상에서 대상 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
overdoing over a period of time i went through a whole bunch of experiences that were um you know eye-opening experiences most valuably the mistakes one of the great things about the markets is it's not difficult to it's not easy to beat the markets and there's a consensus out there that's captured in the markets and so it makes understanding of economics very practical because i get a card and based on that scorecard and also positive and negative reinforcement of the pain of losing and so on i then learn and i learned that many of the things that um i was surprised about where things that never happened in my lifetime before and that's why i was surprised but that they happened before um you know uh the first time i was clerking on the floor of the new york stock exchange in 1971 and nobody was accepting dollars and then i came on august 15th president of the united states basically says you're no longer going to get the gold and we're not going to do that i walk on the clerking on the floor of the exchange i figured wow what a crisis we're going to be down a lot stock market was up a lot i didn't know what a currency devaluation was but they happened many times the 70s and so on along those lines um were things that happened happened in my lifetime and i got in a habit of every time i would make a decision particularly pain painful decisions that was my cue that i need to do more research every time i would um i have an expression pain plus reflection equals progress so i started you know have a painful experience um when i calm myself down i would say what can i learn and i would go back and i would study that and then i would um take that learning and i would write down a principle i i wrote it down and by the way i would recommend that you do that when pain plus reflection you're going to learn mostly through your pains and then you reflect well learn the lessons taken from others and do your research and i would then write that down and so i would do that for everything that all the decision making that i i did uh so i started um bridgewater and as mentioned out of the two-bedroom apartment and i grow and i encounter things so i did basically two jobs the investing job and the running the business as an entrepreneur job and for all those things i accumulated a bunch of principles and what i learned is that everything in life happens over and over again for the same reasons pretty much slightly different but by and large for the same reasons and then for that reason i wanted i knew that i needed to understand things that happened in my lifetime and the mechanics behind it and that led me um to not only experience a lot of debt crisis because um i've been doing this for about 50 years and in many different places there were all sorts of debt crisises um you know i went through four major ones in the united states and i'm not talking recessions i'm talking major ones and then but in all these countries emerging markets latin american one i went through a bunch and i knew that i also needed to study those that were um happened before like the great depression or germany's weimar republic and so on to get a frame of reference because if i how would i know that it wouldn't happen again and i needed to understand the mechanics so i did that and that was one of the reasons um that was the main reason that we anticipated the financial crisis uh in 2007 we anticipated 2008 financial crisis and that um brought me um in contact with policymakers uh and and also uh tim geithner and tim geithner hank paulson ben bernanke and and i do this by the way with others in other country countries when uh simile but in any case tim um um i had this comp compilation of research about all these crises and how i think the same thing happens over and over again and then tim um coming in the financial crisis and hank paulson and ben bernanke asked me to make um a book about it too so that would be captured 2008 financial crisis that's the book that you're given and again it's just that the same thing happens over and over again so the way that i don't when i don't know about something the way i do it is i study all the times that that thing happened let's say for example uh populism i wasn't used to populism uh being um you know a big thing in developed worlds so then i found all the cases of uh populism and i wanted to read them all and then come up with a notion of what is an archetypical case what does the typical one look like and then by knowing what the typical one looks like i get that clear in my mind the same way a doctor who gets to see a lot of different cases starts to figure okay well here's how a typical one happens and then from there then you start to study the differences of why is this one different from that one and then you have a frame of reference so that's what i did and that's what i do with everything that i'm studying i want to look at the all of them and i want to understand how the archetypical and linkages on that and that's what i did with with the debt crisis so the book that's there um there has a brief beginning uh that just says what you know how do these things work the architecture well i think it's like 60 pages it won't take you long and then be behind that is three three major ones looked at in exa in in-depth the great depression then the inflationary depression of germany's weimar republic and then the 2008 financial crisis looked at in real depth so you can read the stories of those and then behind that is a brief review of all those that happened in the last 100 years which is there have been 48 cases and they basically all happen pretty much in the same way but just with variations like a disease might evolve in different ways but it has variations to it
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