저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 미국 자본시장이 장기 성장기업을 충분히 공개상장시키지 못하는 것이 문제이며, 이를 해결하기 위해 SPAC 대안인 'IPO 2.0' 플랫폼을 추진한다는 주장. 핵심 주장 1: 상장기업 수 감소 미국 상장사는 약 8~9천개(2000년)에서 현재 약 4천개로 줄었고, S&P500 기업의 2/3는 R&D 예산이 없다고 주장. 원인: 현금흐름 중시 풍토 시장이 현재 현금흐름만 중시하면서 사모펀드·부채 호황을 낳았고, 이것이 기업 축소와 공개시장 변동성 확대를 초래했다고 설명. 해결책: IPO 2.0 플랫폼 투자자를 사전에 모집(pre-wire)하고 사업모델을 설명한 뒤 공정가격으로 상장하며, 보호예수(lockup) 등 주식 부담을 줄인다. 상장 기간은 18개월 대신 90일로 단축 가능하다고 밝힘. 기대 효과: 장기 성장 지원 장기 투자 성향 헤지펀드가 늘면 기업의 R&D 투자가 확대되어 미국 경제 전반에 영향을 줄 것이라고 주장. 가상자산/ICO 평가: 일부 ICO는 그림자 시장의 차익거래로 보며, 대부분 사라지고 사기·허위가 상당할 것이라고 부정적으로 평가. 페니스톡 같아서 합리적 투자자에게 추천하지 않는다고 함. 정책 전망: 공급망 회복력 강화를 위해 정부가 기업에 국내 생산을 요구하고 중국 압박이 커질 것으로 전망. 탈중앙 블록체인 제품의 경제적 가치는 0으로 수렴하고 정부 감시 하의 결제망과 유사해질 것이라고 주장. 출연자 전망: 가장 좋은 투자는 자기 자신에 대한 투자라고 강조. 특정 종목·지수에 대한 가격 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
you know do you see any way in which blockchain technology could be used or is it just again like you said like the technology doesn't matter and specs maybe just solve the the problems that you see the technology doesn't matter the outcome matters in this case what the outcome is that matters is the following there are eight thousand or nine thousand public companies in two thousand they're about four thousand now um two thirds of the s p 500 have no r d budgets um now you can say well this is a stock market problem but i actually think that this is a u.s economic problem which is that we don't have capital markets that can support young high-growing fast companies in a way that really builds for the future of america the resiliency of america and so we need thousands of companies to go public and so we need to frame the capital markets in a way that they understand why they should be buying future growth and product iteration in r d versus current cash flow it's this obsession with current cash flow that has driven the private equity boom that has driven the debt boom that has driven 8 000 companies to shrink to 4 000 and that has driven a lot of unnecessarily volatility in the public equity markets so by uh building this platform this ipo 2.0 platform uh what i would really like to do with my partners is sort of pioneer a way for young high growth companies who can invest lots of money over the next five to ten years to go public and the way that i do it is we pre-wire the ipo we go and we curate investors we explain what we're trying to do we explain the dynamics of the market then we go and find a target company and then we break the business model down for these folks we price it in a way that's fair and we eliminate a lot of the overhang in the stock like things like lockups and whatnot so there's benefits to the ceo and founder which is that they get a better they get better understood in the public markets so then there's more long-term support they get to go public in 90 days versus you know 18 months and it's just a much lighter weight process and then for the public markets what's really important is we and i'm using sort of you know my accumulated quote-unquote social capital and credibility um to say let me explain to you why you want to own this thing for five to ten years and look i can only do this one company at a time although in this current case you know the first one was virgin galactic it's been a real success you know i raised two more spacks and so we'll see what happens i'd like to raise you know uh some more after that um but by doing this incrementally i think that i'll help educate the smartest hedge funds and mutual funds to want more of these younger businesses and then younger businesses will be less afraid of going public sooner and that'll start to turn the capital markets momentum in favor of long-term growth and that has huge ramifications because then hedge funds will tell companies invest more in r d you know and that actually has huge implications for the u.s economy so to me it's it's all about that icos i felt and i still feel are arbitraging something um in a very shady gray market and you know a poorly understood part of the financial ecosystem for the gain of a few um i don't think that many of these things will stand the test of time and i think that there'll be you know non-trivial amounts of fraud and stealing essentially and lying and you know these things underlie nothing they don't really represent real businesses um and so i just uh it's kind of like penny stocks do they exist sure would i tell any reasonable smart investor to focus on them no what i tell my grandparents to go buy them now and so one other thing i wanted to ask was to just sort of bring together two strands we've been discussing uh because you've been saying that the way out of the coronavirus pandemic is to turn to resilience and how you feel that this will probably drive more nationalism because it's exposed how fragile our supply chains can be um but as we've just been talking about you know when i asked you the question about web 3 you did also say that you felt that there would would be a drive toward decentralization um but you know generally at least in my world that means these like borderless crypto networks which is obviously quite different from something more along the nationalist line so i just wondered how you thought those two trends would intersect i think that um you know governments will basically push businesses to be more resilient which really means that they'll have to in-source a lot more work and they'll have to do a lot of things on shore because they'll want to to view things through a lens of national security and economic incentives will probably motivate people to behave that way i think separately people will put a lot of pressure on china um at every single part of the of the sort of economic value chain in which china plays an enormous role and there are many and too innumerable to count and all of that will force um companies to do the the more resilient less profitable thing um and so you know that's sort of where the that's sort of where the world is going um on top of that though there will be a handful of folks that do build multinational products because they are you know to your point which is very accurate and true borderless these are online products mostly but i think what will happen is the economics of those products will converge to zero and the economic value associated with them will converge to zero and they will become highly transparent and monitored by governments and they will behave no different than the payment rails and other networks that we have today it's it's it it is the case that you know when you make a wire buying between two parties or between two countries the doj can figure that out in a nanosecond uh and the fbi and everybody else and they can figure out who it is and uh and government institutions work together to basically provide transparency and i think i think all of these sort of you know uh borderless user-based networks will end up doing that not necessarily because they want to but because they'll be forced to and i think all governments will align on that by far the best investment you can make is in yourself if you invest in yourself nobody can take it away from
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